Another Lady of Letters* Goes Global...

Yes, I've decided to "Go Global" (http://janetsgeopolitics.wordpress.com/). After years of being berated by former friends and colleagues, for my "localism" it's time to take on the world again. Nevertheless, I would still remind all and sundry that it's precisely those "little" local difficulties that also raise serious, and sometimes deeply troubling, questions of our "world view" : please see my provincial blog @ http://witchofworcester.wordpress.com/

* A rather good radio comedy in the modern epistolary style.

Need for UK-wide Regeneration Task Force(s)

Area regeneration (regional, urban, rural) in the UK is not working ! We need a National Regeneration Task Force (which represents the interests of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) as well as regional task forces.

In England, these should be set up by the Regional Development Agencies. However, they should not be quango-led ! Representation should go beyond "the usual suspects" for which regeneration and development "sectors" are somewhat notorious.

As part of my contribution to the much needed regeneration debate, I'm this week re-activating two blogs :

• Smart Limits to Growth (http://smartlimits2growth.wordpress.com/) tomorrow
• & A Manifesto for Regeneration (http://regen-man.blogspot.com) on Friday

Incidentally, the major catalyst for this blog was a train journey from Worcester to Birmingham International Station in March 2006 : the "wastelands" of the West Midlands Conurbation inspiring a post entitled "The End of Birmingham and the Beginning of My Blog" (See Planning 22/9/2006).

The "Bombsite Britain Tax"

In recent weeks The Financial Times (FT) has carried articles on :

• The vulnerability of regeneration areas to the economic downturn/recession
• Skepticism about whether the English Regional Development Agencies are "working"
• The financial levy on empty shops, offices and warehouses introduced last April

The article on the empty property levy (or "Bombsite Britain Tax") which appeared in The Weekend FT 23-24 August, opened as follows :

" British Cities are "beginning to look like like broken teeth" , with hundreds of buildings being razed as the result of a damaging tax on empty property, a government regeneration chief said yesterday..."

All this does of course beg the question : where is the joined up government, given that regeneration of brownfield sites is supposedly a priority for this one ?

I will be tackling the subject of "Bombsite Britain" again at a later date. However, just now I would refer readers to my E-Pantomime on the theme of regeneration "Carry On Communities", which opens with these words from The Giant ( an ogre !) known as "The Big Clunking Fist" (aka Gordon Brown) :

" Fee Fi Fo Fum

I smell the Funds of an Englishman.

Be He Alive or be He Dead,

I'll have His Money for My Bread !"

Please see http://eponaland.wordpress.com/ for EPONA News & Updates

The Travails of Transport for London

I sympathise with London Mayor Boris Johnson's problems at Transport for London (TfL). This is indeed an extremely "political" organisation. However, may I remind TfL's new leader that "stakeholders" in the "Re-opened" (?) Thames Gateway Bridge Public Inquiry (like myself) need a clear statement from him on whether this episode in the life of a proposed East London London River Crossing is, as his own comments and press speculation seem to suggest, in fact going to close. I can also offer this advice (based on nearly a quarter century of area regeneration work) that in planning strategy (as no doubt in Geopolitics - see below) all reasonable options need to be considered, including the "Do Minimum".

Please see http://crookbarrow.wordpress.com for Crookbarrow Associates News & Updates.

Trying Times for The Russian Bear (& "Comrade Wolf")

In response to Mr Trying Times criticism of my Geo-political Bestiary ("Don't Goad The Russian Wolf Too Much !) in my post of yesterday, I would draw attention to the following extract from The Guardian of May 2006, which anticipates the G8 Summit in St Petersburg :

"Mr Putin, in his speech, noted that the American military budget was 25 times the size of Russia's and said the US had turned its home into a castle.

"Good for them," the Russian president said, looking up from his notes, directly at his audience, "but this means we must make our own home strong and reliable. Because we see what is happening in the world. We see it."

He added, in what appeared to be a reference to the US-led invasion of Iraq and its approach to Iran: "As they say, 'comrade wolf knows whom to eat. He eats without listening and he is clearly not going to listen to anyone'." He accused the US of hypocrisy over its criticism of Russia's patchy human rights record.

"Where is all this pathos about protecting human rights and democracy when it comes to the need to pursue their own interests?"

In another veiled reference to Washington's approach to Iraq and Iran, he said: "Methods of force rarely give the desired result and often their consequences are even more terrible than the original threat." He added that Russia was "unambiguously" against the spread of nuclear weapons.

In another apparent jibe aimed at the US, he said countries should not use Russia's negotiations over membership of the World Trade Organisation to make unrelated demands".

I hope this puts my reference to the Russian Wolf in the correct Geo-political context !

Don't Goad The Russian Wolf Too Much !

In my latest post @ The Edge of Town (http://the-edge-of-town.blogspot.com/) I've reflected upon the real and potential dangers of Russian oppression for countries of the former Soviet Block, as demonstrated in the current crisis in Georgia. However, foreign politicians must, in my view, be equally careful not to goad the Russian Wolf to much. The West, notably the United States and Britain, does not have an unblemished record on recent interventions in foreign territories, particularly where energy supplies are at stake.

"New" politicians on the international scene, like David Cameron, want to reflect rather more on how they might handle relationships with Russia, should they win the next British General Election, not least because of our important trading links with that country.

Russian treatment of BP (British Petroleum) may have been heavy-handed, but this is, after all, a company which can justly be accused of gross profiteering, and a tarnished record on environmental and safety issues in some parts of the world.

For my own part, I'd like the Russian Government to take a less "macho" stance on domestic and foreign policy. It's a shame all that testosterone hasn't apparently focused itself more on winning medals at the Beijing Olympics, as I thought one of the main functions of "The Games", along with football and other macho sports, was to distract energy and attention away from violent Geo-politics. However, in the case of Russia we may need more "Nudge Politics" (I think they're called) in the future, if we are to avoid real War Games.

Some Background Information from the US Department of Energy (May 2008)
Russia holds the world's largest natural gas reserves, the second largest coal reserves, and the eighth largest oil reserves. Russia is also the world's largest exporter of natural gas, the second largest oil exporter and the third largest energy consumer.

In 2007, Russia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by approximately 8.1 percent, surpassing average growth rates in all other G8 countries, and marking the country’s seventh consecutive year of economic expansion. Russia’s economic growth over the past seven years has been driven primarily by energy exports, given the increase in Russian oil production and relatively high world oil prices during the period. Internally, Russia gets over half of its domestic energy needs from natural gas, up from around 49 percent in 1992. Since then, the share of energy use from coal and nuclear has stayed constant, while energy use from oil has decreased from 27 percent to around 19 percent.

Russia’s economy is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas exports. In order to manage windfall oil receipts, the government established a stabilization fund in 2004. By the end of 2007, the fund was expected to be worth $158 billion, or about 12 percent of the country’s nominal GDP. According to calculations by Alfa Bank, the fuel sector accounts for about 20.5 percent of GDP, down from around 22 percent in 2000. According to IMF and World Bank estimates, the oil and gas sector generated more than 60 percent of Russia’s export revenues (64% in 2007), and accounted for 30 percent of all foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country.

Kremlin policy makers continue to exhibit an inclination to advance the state's influence in the energy sector. Taxes on oil exports and extraction are still high, and Russia’s state-influenced oil and gas companies are obtaining controlling stakes in previously foreign-led projects. State-owned export facilities have grown at breakneck pace, while private projects have progressed more slowly or have been met with roadblocks by state-owned companies or by various government agencies.

Why Britain Needs a Labour Government

I awoke this morning from what Carl Jung might have called a "Big Dream", so first let me recount this - it was short ! - and then offer some interpretation.

Entering a glassy office, I ask to speak to "The Tower". "Don't call Him that !" responds the Secretary, who bears a passing resemblance to Yvette Cooper, Chief Financial Secretary to The Treasury. In a further glass office, rather smaller than that of his Secretary, but apparently with an external view, sits a gloomy looking man reading documents : it is Gordon Brown.

At this point, I awake feeling somewhat cheerful. My first thoughts are of "The Tower" card in the Tarot deck.

Students of The Cards will know that The Tower depicts two figures, a man and a woman, being thrown headlong from a tall structure apparently stuck by lightening (or reality !).

Now Ms Cooper and husband Balls remind me of that Northern couple whose husband faked his own death, and who later turned up at a police station in Southern England claiming to have no memory of anything that happened before the year 2000 : a problem incidentally common to New Labour policy makers, until recently anyway.

It also seems that Children's Secretary Mr Balls may have disappeared lately - too many difficult questions to answer ? - or he may just be on "Child Care" leave.

As for the gloomy figure of Mr Brown, he may have realised that Ms Cooper's Secretarial skills are no better than those of her husband; and, of course, she may claim at some later stage that she was bullied by both of them into pursuing the wrong policies. However, my impression is that for Mr Brown, at least, the grim light of reality has (at last) struck home.

So what's to be done ? Well, the first thing is to sack his Secretary. Sorry New Labour Ladies, but we need a change of Administration here ! Mr Brown also needs to sack her husband.

Next, Mr Brown needs to create a Labour Government, and if he is unwilling or unable to do this he needs to stand down as Prime Minister and Leader of his Party.

This Labour Government needs to radically "Cut the Crap !" ie thoroughly "Jargon-Bust" the Corridors of Power, and focus on policies which have real meaning to ordinary people. High amongst these must be measures to target growing wage inequality, including a radical cull of highly-paid (from the public purse) "Jobsworths" in favour of those who represent Real Labour.

Trying Times for Security and Defence Services

Mr "Trying Times", who describes his profession as "Accountancy", has posted this comment on my earlier Blog regarding "Professions Better Suited to Single People". This refers to the case of Max Mosley, who was "outed" by the wife of an ex-employee of MI5 :

"Who said her husband was a former Director of MI5. What's the source of that information? The best I can place him at is earning £23,500/year as a staffer on the middle-east desk working in Circulations. I'm pretty sure that a (former) Director of MI5 wouldn't be living in a two-bed Semi in Chavsville, so what is your source please?"

My source, or so I thought, was BBC Radio when the story first broke in ? March/April this year, but I may be mistaken. Perhaps the Director was sacked for failing to "vet" his staff sufficiently.
However, like Mr "Trying Times", I also interested in remuneration.

Surely the key issue here is money, which I take up in my earlier Blog :"Spooks and the Real Power Inquiry". My guess is that many MI5 staff, like their counterparts in the Armed Services aren't earning enough, and they and their families are easy prey for press payouts. Remember the case of the British marines captured by the Iranians who were then paid for their stories !

30 Years On & Why History Matters

In 1978, I visited the State of New York on family business : although this was a vacation I did not spend much time in the tourist areas. Upstate New York was very beautiful and the traffic moved sedately on the freeway because strict speeds limits were in place to conserve energy. Remember the 1970s Oil Crisis ! Meanwhile, the City of New York teetered on the brink of bankruptcy, but was saved, by amongst other things, its new Mayor. Elsewhere, in the cities of eastern USA, news bulletins showed spates of burnt-out apartment buildings which had either been abandoned by their inhabitants, and/or used for insurance claims because property values were plummeting. Nevertheless, in the midst of all this new shopping malls were springing up in so-called "Edge Cities", accessible only to cars consuming energy the country was trying to save.

I visited the United States again in 1991, this time travelling to California to visit a friend, and my last visit to date. Most of my vacation was spent around the San Francisco Bay area, but I also went to Yosemite and Santa Cruz. On this occasion, I was again struck by some wonderful scenery, but also by overdevelopment, and by the disparities between "good" and "bad" areas. However, the situation seemed much better, for California anyway, than in 1978.

The US economy was in recession during both my visits, so perhaps I'm due another, but this "downturn" (a current euphemism, I feel) seems to be different from previous ones. "The Good Places" seem just as vulnerable as "The Bad", as revealed in the last weekend's business section of The Observer newspaper. This contains a feature on the State of California and home of one the world's largest economies, whose government currently has budgetory problems.... ?on a par with those of New York City in 1978. The State's Standard and Poor Credit Rating has been downgraded because of its so-called "bubble economy" ie one overly vulnerable to a plummeting property market. The Observer article highlights the plight of the Stockton, a commuter city to the north of San Francisco and also now scene of abandoned neighbourhoods.

This sorry story makes for stark reading, but am I in the least surprised ? Nope, not at all. The US City-States have never been models of sustainable development, and nor has the country's wider economy. Let's not forget that North American capitalism is precarious, not so precarious as the capitalism of much of the so-called emerging economies - of South America, India, China etc - but precarious nonetheless. History shows this. UK Government please take note !

PS "A Man in Full" by Tom Wolfe, which I felt was even better than "The Bonfire of the Vanities", deals with the propensity for US property "bubbles", this time in Atlanta.

A New Department for Land Economy

News that Gordon Brown is to host a Cabinet Meeting in the West Midlands on 8 September is to be welcomed. Might I suggest the newly refurbished Council Chamber at Worcestershire County Hall, if this has not already been put forward as a possible venue. I would also like to propose an agenda item for the meeting : a new Department for Land Economy.

For it seems to me that most economists have an inadequate understanding of land economy (planning, property markets etc) and most planners have a poor comprehension of economy.
As a starting point, I think we need a Centre for Land Economy in the West Midlands. Perhaps Vice Chancellor Green of Worcester University, and a Cambridge economics graduate (a University with one of the world's few departments of land economy) could help here.

A Government Department for Land Economy would, of course, need to be thoroughly "joined-up", bringing together regional, urban and rural development, regulation of the property and housing markets, land-based industries, and, of course, planning, for a start. Sustainable development and, particularly, regeneration would be central to the department's mission.

If all this sounds a bit "blue sky" might I suggest the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs's (DEFRA) Foresight Centre look into the proposal. As someone who regular does some "Horizon Scanning" herself (from Crookbarrow Hill next to Junction 7 of the M5), I can tell the boffins that they and their political masters need to come down to earth....and I can think of few more appropriate places than Worcestershire.

"This isn't the Roman Empire"

No, indeed ! Nor is this a reference to the Murdoch Media Empire's relations with the British Security Services, Boris Johnson's address in Latin at the opening of the Emperor Hadrian exhibition, or even London's preparations for the 2012 Olympics. No, this quotation - from yesterday's West Midlands edition of the Metro newspaper - refers to Worcestershire County Council's expenditure of "£850 000 on one room" (!) which provoked these comments from the TaxPayers' Alliance :

"This isn't the Roman Empire - taxpayers don't want glittering prestige buildings, they want their bins collected on time."

Now, as it happens, Worcestershire's bins are collected by the District Councils - Worcester City, Malvern Hills, Wychavon etc - and do not fall under the auspices of the County Council. However, the structure of Worcestershire's local government is pertinent to the underlying issues here : value for money, sustainable development and local democracy. The "room" in question, incidentally, is the Council Chamber in County Hall (built in the 1970s, when it accommodated not only Worcestershire but also Herefordshire County Council).

This annexation of Hereford County Council was subsequently abandoned, and it is a testimony to the rolling forward of the frontiers of the local state that said building - whose (? New Brutalist) structure would have done proud any former Soviet regime - now has difficulty accommodating the one County of Worcestershire's bureaucrats, and, more particularly, their vehicles in the adjoining acres of car-parking. Some may find such expansionism curious in a local authority which is regarded, by and large, as Conservative.

By way of explanation, I would propose that the expansion of this particular "empire" is testimony to the power of the local bureaucrat, many of whom now command salaries higher than their "peers" in higher eschelons of government, and, indeed, in some cases, the Prime Minister. Sadly, such power does not so much cascade, as trickle, down to local communities, as the individuals and groups whose concerns have been "silenced" in the Council Chamber of Worcestershire County Hall can testify, and, this is notwithstanding the current expenditure of :

"...£115 000 ...on electronics ...65 microphones, a sound system, two radio microphones...."

This expenditure, reported in yesterday's Metro, along with "about £631 000...on construction" helpfully brings me back to the subject of "waste", although not bin collections. For it was last year that the protestations of local people went unheard - because they were not allowed to speak - in that "room" now under consideration, when Worcestershire County Council granted planning permission for a major new waste facility on an environmentally sensitive site, served by poor infrastructure, and prone to flooding.

My prediction is that the Council's current "splashing out" of £850k will most certainly not lead to the creation of a Temple of Democracy in County Hall, nor will this facilitate better decision-making on controversial local development projects be they "glittering prestige buildings", waste facilities or the urban extensions much favoured by bureacrats. Real democracy in places like Worcestershire will require, quite simply, fewer empire builders facilitated through the streamlining and re-structuring of local government in the County. Let's get started !