Showing posts with label Environment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Environment. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 03, 2016

LIVINGSTONE, HISTORY AND "MASS KILLINGS"

Ken Livingstone and Adolf Hitler (International Business Times)
The political storm created by the former London Mayor, Labour MP and Leader of the Greater London Council's suggestion that Adolf Hitler was a Zionist shows little sign of abating. This post offers a guarded defence of Mr Livingstone, a long-time controversialist, whose comments have prompted some much needed historical and international discourse in British politics, without, however, supporting his version of history.

Ken Livingstone was suspended from the Labour Party as a result of his clumsy attempt to disentangle Anti-Semitism and Zionism. He was previously expelled from the party by the New Labour government and stood as an independent in the first election for a London Mayor in 2000 in which he won a decisive victory. He was later re-instated by the party and stood as a Labour candidate in 2004. On both occasions, London's ethnic minority communities were a key constituency for Mr Livingstone, along with other groups who felt under-represented in, or let down by, mainstream politics. Perhaps more than any other politician, Ken Livingstone has led the transformation of the UK's capital in to a multi-cultural global city, and compromised his left-wing credentials along the way. It is not without irony that Mr Livingstone - for his detractors one of the founding fathers of modern British political correctness - can be quite politically incorrect himself.

The reason for this, and indeed for Ken Livingstone's political success, is that he is in many ways the quintessential post-war Londoner. The "Life of Ken" is worth reading up on, not least because it has caused much more controversy over a similar time period than Monty Python's "Life of Brian" . Nevertheless, the notion that Mr Livingstone is in some way a Nazi apologist is completely absurd, nor in my view, is he Anti-Semitic.

What Ken Livingstone always has had, along with his onetime arch-enemy Margaret Thatcher, is a highly selective version of events (historical and contemporary), with a possibly even greater tendency to be over-influenced by particular advisers and intellectuals without giving full and proper attention to those with different views. In the present furore, Mr Livingstone has cited the work of the American Jewish Marxist historian Lenni Brenner as evidence of Hitler's early support for Zionism.

However, the wider historical consensus on Nazi policy towards the Jews is very different. For instance, writing in today's Independent on the subject of "Hitler and Zionism" Professor Rainer Schulze points out that:  "Claims that Hitler was a Zionist, or supported Zionism, before his anti-Jewish policies turned into murder and extermination flare up at regular intervals. They usually cite the controversial Haavara Agreement (Transfer Agreement) of August 1933 as the most potent evidence of a wilful cooperation between Hitler and the Zionist movement. When viewed in a certain way, this deal does superficially seem to show that Hitler’s government endorsed Zionism – but just because it was a mechanism to help German Jews relocate to Palestine it does not imply it was “Zionist”. Professor Schulze is General Editor of "The Holocaust in History and Memory" a research project led by the University of Essex and his article originally appeared in "The Conversation".

Returning to Mr Livingstone, his unwary, shorthand view of history has, nevertheless, unwittingly contributed to the Labour Party's new "Big Conversation" on the relationship between the past and present. As my own contribution to this discourse, I would strongly recommend that the former London Mayor, together with Labour's present Leader and his colleagues add to their summer reading - if they have not read it already - a recent book by the historian Timothy Snyder, "Bloodlands"  The subject of this book is "a zone in Europe where the Soviet and Nazi powers overlapped" and where at least 14 million people, mainly civilian or non-combatants, were "killed by purposeful mass murder associated with the above regimes" during the period 1933-45. Snyder purposely uses the term "mass killing" instead of "genocide" to describe the atrocities of the Bloodlands, of which the Jewish Holocaust is the most infamous.

Yet, as Snyder also points out: "During the years that both Stalin and Hitler were in power, more people were killed in Ukraine that anywhere else in the Bloodlands, or in Europe, or in the World". Indeed, Ukrainians have their own expression - the Holodomor - to describe "the greatest artificial famine in the history of the world" that killed between 2.5 and 7.5 million people in the period 1932-3 alone.

The term "Holodomor" is, however, little known outside Ukraine, currently engaged in both a "history war", and a real one, with Russia, and this points to a fundamental problem of modern history itself: that it can sometimes be as selective in its version of events as Ken Livingstone. Much of Timothy Snyder's work is based on "new" archive material that became available to North American and Western European researchers after the collapse of the Soviet Union and its Eastern Bloc in the early 1990s. However, the partial narrative of mid-century European history also occurred because Russia became a Western ally after 1941, and it suited the allies to emphasize the Holocaust perpetrated by Nazi Germany rather than other mass killings that occurred in the Bloodlands between 1933-45. Of Snyder's estimated 14 million victims, "more than half died of starvation", yet as he also admits, the "Great Chinese Famine" of 1958-62 greatly surpassed even this figure.

When Labour's John Mcdonnell presented Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer with a copy of Chairman Mao's Little Red Book last year he was making a serious point: "...We must not pretend to know what we do not know" By this action - which was misunderstood and much derided at the time by Britain's ignorant political classes - Mr Mcdonnell meant that George Osborne , who studied modern history at Oxford University, should seek to understand what the possible implications of an increasingly close economic and financial relationship with the communist People's Republic of China might actually mean for the UK.

I no doubt risk being ridiculed like John McDonnell in conflating the power of contemporary China with the problems of its quite recent past. However, the lessons for both George Osborne and Ken Livingstone, another Sinophile, is the perennial one of needing to understand the past in order to know the present. Unfortunately, we live in an age where the "New Opium of the People"  is  the promise of a digital utopia in which cheap, plentiful and high quality consumer goods continue to be supplied to Western and other consumers by the new Workshops of the World, particularly China. The shallow and materialistic lifestyles to which the post-WII generations - from Baby Boomers to Millennials - aspire has conspired to support an elite dominated by techno-optimist groupthink. It is hardly surprising that in such a millieu histories are often forgotten, spawning an ill-educated social discourse in much of the new and conventional media. So finally, let's thank Ken Livingstone for helping to rectify this, albeit unintentionally.

Postscript: May 2018 - Mr Livingstone has now resigned from the Labour Party.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

DECONSTRUCTING OSBORNE'S STATE CAPITALISM

Going Underground: George Osborne and Boris Johnson (Mirror)
Some where along the line, British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne became a state capitalist and so, arguably, did outgoing London Mayor Boris Johnson. In Osborne's case, this ideological acquisition may have been due to indoctrination during a gap-year visit to China as a young man, and/or the subsequent influence of Maoist - in their own words - Liberal Democrats like former Business Secretary Sir Vince Cable during the UK Lib-Con Coalition Government of 2010-15. In the case of Johnson, the embrace of state capitalism is more opportunistic, like the taking of a concubine who might be retained or discarded according to political expediency.

State capitalism, it may be argued, is the political expediency of the present economic age. Only yesterday, a Financial Times article entitled "Japan Inc: Heavy meddling" quoted the former head of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as saying: “The important thing about the rise of China is that most developed nations have seen that pure market-based capitalism sometimes cannot compete against the Chinese state."(1). However, Mr Osborne's enthusiasm for state capitalism goes beyond expediency and has more than a whiff of ideological fanaticism about it, although this may have something to do with the Chancellor of the Exchequer's austere dietary regime (2).

So it was a proposed "Sugar Tax" on soft drinks in yesterday's Budget to encourage the nation to downsize after the fashion of  "Little George", as former larger-than-life Chancellor Ken Clarke sometimes calls his Conservative successor, that most caught the attention of the British media (3). In fact, this budgetary item might be compared to the evanescent fizz in a large tumbler of lemonade given to the infants of the national press whilst the real business took place elsewhere.

As Sky news had noted on the eve of Osborne's Budget: "Infrastructure Giants Line Up For New UK Fund" in the form of a "British Infrastructure Club‎, which will seek to replicate the track record of leading state-backed investment funds." The report also points out that "the Mayor of London has been a staunch advocate of the creation of a UK sovereign wealth fund with sufficient firepower to invest in British transport, housing and other critical national infrastructure."

Someone called "Zzz" (apparently used to mean sleepy, bored or tired, or the sound of a person snoring) and the sole commentator on the Sky report astutely remarked: "Cut through all the distracting rhetoric, Osborne is setting up another quango to spend the tax payers money on vote catching political projects." So there we have it. The state capitalism of George Osborne and Boris Johnson is deconstructed in a sentence, or is it? According to The Economist's "crony-capitalism index" of "the countries where politically connected businessmen are most likely to prosper", the UK was ranked 15th in 2014 and 2007 (5). This seems to be an area in which the economy has consistently performed well, for politically well-connected business people at least.


References 

(1). http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0118e3a6-ea99-11e5-bb79-2303682345c8.html#axzz43A0DYjHa
(2). http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11370930/David-Cameron-praises-George-Osborne-for-his-weight-loss.html
(3). http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3495160/George-Osborne-shocks-Britain-including-sugar-tax-Budget-sends-soft-drinks-shares-freefall.html
(4).  http://news.sky.com/story/1660464/infrastructure-giants-line-up-for-new-uk-fund
(5). http://www.economist.com/news/international/21599041-countries-where-politically-connected-businessmen-are-most-likely-prosper-planet

Monday, March 07, 2016

IS A PICTURE WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS?

Here's a photo of Winter becoming Spring whilst this blog pauses from written posts.

PS:  An interesting article from Turkey about Croci - http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/a-bunch-of-crocus-for-puduhepa.aspx?PageID=238&NID=96093&NewsCatID=473

Friday, January 30, 2015

ECONOMICS FROM CENTRAL PLANNERS TO BANKERS

The European Central Bank HQ in Frankfurt, Germany
As Coursera's thought-provoking mooc on "The Economics of Transition and Emerging Markets" (see my previous post) draws to a close, I feel it's time to reflect on the state of British and European political economy.

The high-point of Moscow's Higher School of Economics online course was for me an essay for peer assessment which asked participants to compare the transitions of the former Soviet Union and China from centrally planned economies to market-orientated ones. As I researched this fascinating subject, it also became clear that there has been a parallel transition towards central planning in some market-orientated economies - I'm going to take the UK as an example - in recent years. Moreover, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney told the Eurozone yesterday to follow Britain's example, notwithstanding "...central bank governors do not usually comment on the fiscal policies of their own jurisdictions, let alone foreign ones", http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bank-of-england-governor-mark-carney-urges-eurozone-to-spend-its-way-out-of-stagnation-10009743.html Good evidence for the re-construction of the central banker's role as central planner.

It should also be remembered that not so very long ago the Royal Bank of Scotland (currently 82% owned by the UK government) "had a £2.4tn balance sheet that was as big as the German economy in 2008" making it the world's largest bank. However, following the global financial crisis, the rescue of this institution, along with other major parts of the banking sector, effectively committed the UK economy to the state capitalist model http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_capitalism  A feature of this model which Britain has not yet embraced is the Sovereign Wealth Fund http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_wealth_fund so Chancellor George Osborne proposes to set one up based on the proceeds of fracking for shale gas http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/10/uk-proposes-shale-gas-sovereign-wealth-fund Although the financial viability of fracking, aside from environmental objections, is currently questionable http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31022280

In Germany fracking is currently banned, and I should imaging that Chancellor Merkel is presently minded to tell Governor Carney to "frack off", after the fashion of Vivienne Westwood who once sought to style the world's most powerful woman http://www.dw.de/refining-merkels-makeover/a-1887784 As a child of communist East German Mrs Merkel knows all about the centrally planned economy. The need for the Eurozone to follow Britain down the path of moral hazard in the form of quantitative easing is therefore one reason why the Eurosceptic Telegraph can claim today that "Germany's worst nightmare has come true" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11377010/Germanys-worst-nightmare-has-come-true.html For what is QE but a soft budget constraint http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/10/kornai-on-soft-budget-constraints-bail-outs-and-the-financial-crisis/#axzz3QJmVZbRE of the kind linked to the collapse of Soviet communism?

Reports of the Euro's death have been greately exaggerated before, of course, but the entry of China's Renminbi into the world top five currencies this week means that we do indeed live in interesting times http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times

Sunday, October 26, 2014

MIGRATION AND POPULATION CHANGE IN BRITAIN

As the debate around net migration to the UK grows, it is important to focus on the facts of population change around Britain. A good place to start is the Office for National Statistics Population and Migration page from which the above graphic is taken -  http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/compendiums/compendium-of-uk-statistics/population-and-migration/index.html
The UK is forecast to become the most populous country in Europe by 2035 - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/8851902/Migrants-to-send-Britains-population-soaring-to-largest-in-EU.html - largely as a consequence of migration from within and outside the European Union. This has led to a growing number of calls for the impacts of migration and population change to be better understood, as well as reports questioning the sustainability - environmental, social, economic and cultural - of existing and predicted increases in Britain's population. Such critical reports include work commissioned by the think tank Civitas - http://www.civitas.org.uk/pdf/LargescaleImmigration - and the campaign group Population Matters - http://www.populationmatters.org/documents/myths_migration.pdf

Population forecasts have a level of uncertainty as acknowledged by ONS. What is needed are future scenarios based on lower and higher level projections and descriptions of their potential effects on key areas of concern. The UK government should have the intellectual and technological resources to do this and to engage the British public in an objective national discourse about migration and population. However, the traditional parties have hitherto eschewed such a "Big Conversation" - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3245620.stm - apparently preferring to accept that an already "Big Society" - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Society -
- is just going to get bigger regardless of the consequences. The recent award of a peerage to Sir Andrew Green, founder of Migration Watch - http://www.migrationwatchuk.org - for his work  "to improve public understanding of the impact of the very high levels of net migration" appears to indicate that the factual component of a popularist "big conversation" on this subject should now be supported in the managed political process.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

TRANSPORT: FINANCIAL TIMES CHANGES PLATFORM

According to the print edition of today's FT, "..HS2 should reach Birmingham in 2016", although the same report in the paper's online version - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4c7f36aa-5883-11e4-942f-00144feab7de.html#axzz3GyGfswxp - states that: "Ths article has been change to reflect the fact that HS2 should reach Birmingham in 2026, not 2016". As someone prone to typos, I can take a little satisfaction that the mighty media also occasionally fall victim to these.

However, the article also suggests that the FT may have changed platform on HS2, and this report is somewhat more circumspect than last week's as the following extract shows:

"Martin Blaiklock, a consultant on infrastructure and energy project finance, said the extra capacity needed could be built more cheaply. “[HS2] is very high-risk. There may well be alternatives available. The public are not convinced as to benefit of HS2. It is a gravy train for consultants, involving banks, lawyers and government officials,” he said.

The article also points out that:

"Northern councils have their own £15bn road and rail plan to better connect their cities and want it delivered before HS2. It includes a new high-speed line between Leeds and Manchester. Journey times across the North are twice as slow as those into London. 

The government wants to create a “northern powerhouse” to rival London by improving links between the biggest cities in the region. Jim O’Neill, the economist, who coined the term, “ManSheffLeedsPool”, told the FT: “For people to have to wait for HS2 to do that, I don’t see the logic. And I think and I hope that the people who sponsor it will have accepted that principle.”

Not content with an article on the transport shortcomings of "ManSheffLeedsPool...the inelegantly named northern region running between Liverpool to Hull..", today's FT also has an editorial entitled "A modest proposal to get Britain's cities moving" which identifies investment in the Trans-Pennine express rail link as a key project for the Chancellor's "Northern Powerhouse", along the lines of a Centre for Cities report published last week.

Transport is indeed a subject that keeps the commentators peddling. However, as many policy-makers still live in the kind of alternative universe where HS2 trains could be scheduled to serve Birmingham ten years in advance of the construction of the necessary rail infrastructure, and without all the necessary development consents in place, I remain to be convinced that a high-quality rail network and sustainable transport system within and between English regional cities will arrive on time.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

TRANSPORT KEEPS THE COMMENTATORS PEDDLING

Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne (Getty Images)


There are three articles on transport in today's Financial Times headlined as follows: Cost of congestion takes toll on economy; Contest starts to win £10 billion of contracts to build HS2 line; and, East Thames targeted for regeneration.

The first article reports Edmund King of the AA as saying that "infrastructure investments such a the new high-speed rail link would have "minimal" effect on future UK road traffic increases (or rail congestion, I would add). Meanwhile, congestion in the United States, which has embraced the car more enthusiastically than perhaps anywhere else in the world, is forecast to pay a higher price for congestion than perhaps any other country by 2050.

Although the precise aims of the proposed HS2 remain unclear, it would according to the second article, "provide a lifeline for the construction industry". Indeed, this seems to be the main purpose of the project which is still some way from having all the necessary development consents, although the state-owned company behind it has already "spent £3 billion since it was set up by government in 2012". The total cost of HS2, including trains, is estimated to be in region of £50 million, "making it one of the most expensive railway projects in the world".

Finally, the FT reports that "four river crossings should be built between east London and Kent" at an "estimated" cost of £3-7 billion according to the Centre for London think-tank. Presumably these are also lifelines for the construction industry, as again the precise rationale for them is unclear. I speak as someone who attended two major planning inquiries into an East London River Crossing and then a Thames Gateway Bridge between 1985-6 and 2005-6 respectively.

The UK currently likes to flaunt its economic superiority to France, yet the government seems intent on pursuing precisely the same "grand projet" in the transport and energy sectors which do not seem to have served the French very well. Having been involved in English transport planning for nearly thirty years, much of what I now see is regressive, rather like reality television.

Monday, September 22, 2014

ENGLISH PARLIAMENT: THE CASE FOR NATIONALISM

Public Entrance to the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh (opened in 2004)




One consequence of the Scottish Independence Referendum is a re-galvanising of the case for an English Parliament, as recently voiced by the veteran Conservative MP John Redwood - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29203693  However, whilst Mr Redwood suggests that the House of Commons could double up as an English Parliament, this post makes the case for a completely new institution based outside London, accompanied by a  "Great Cull" (humanely executed, naturally) of Westminster bureaucracy. The argument for this might best be summed up in the expression Democratic Sustainable Development.

The so-called United Kingdom has one of the most centralised state bureaucracies in the world. Whilst the previous New Labour administration adopted a policy of "Regionalism", this applied democratically only in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. In England, "regionalisation" manifested in the creation of  Regional Development Agencies (RDAs) or Quangos. Indeed "Quangoisation" (see Note) of government was a salient feature of the New Labour state. The Regional Assemblies which gave the RDAs some small measure of public accountability were abolished by the administration between 2008-10 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_assembly_%28England%29

In 2010, a Conservative-led Liberal Coalition Government was elected and set about destroying all vestiges of "regionalisation" - which became a sort of Orwellian banned word - in England, with the stated aim of replacing this with "Localism". In effect, this has meant replacing regional quangos with local ones, including the state-funded Local Enterprise Partnerships. There has also been a re-centralisation of policy-making, notably in the area of spatial planning where English local authorities now have to adhere to a National Planning Policy Framework, which is just as top-down as the Regional Spatial Strategies which it replaced (after much legal wrangling).

Having experienced both discredited "Regionalism" and "Localism" in the past 15 years, the only real option left for England is "Nationalism". This seems to be working very well in Scotland, where record voter turnout in the Independence Referendum gave the birthplace of democracy what seems like a democratic second-coming. I am sure that the prospect of an English Parliament - let's say in Birmingham - in conjunction with down-sizing of the Westminster Elite would have a similar effect. This could leave London with a city state model of government, something that should help overcome the Capital's growing social inequalities.

If all this sounds like it could lead to "Federalism", so much the better. A federal United Kingdom might well be the best way to preserve the Union in the longer-term. It would also provide some justification for the retention of a solid rump of London-based national government. However, the strong likelihood that increased English Nationalism would empower the dreaded  F-word in British politics will ensure that people like are current prime minister and his political cronies (elected and unelected) will do everything in their power to ensure the talk is of a "family of nations" which is run by a parental union of Big Money and Big State (just as it was under the previous government).

Note
1. When I google "Quangoisation" one of the first entries to emerge is a Chinese translation - http://dict.cn/quangoisation - perhaps because it is also a key feature of the State Capitalism model of political economy: one towards which the so-called UK has increasingly moved.

Monday, July 21, 2014

UK GREEN POLITICS AMOUNTS TO LOTS OF HOT AIR

Outgoing and incoming Environment Secretary: Owen Paterson and Liz Truss (Telegraph)



George Monbiot on Twitter - "Oh bliss it is to wake this morn And hear that Paterson has gorn".

A war of words has broken out between the former UK Environment Secretary and various green Non-Governmental Organisations following an article by Owen Paterson in The Sunday Telegraph - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10978678/Owen-Paterson-Im-proud-of-standing-up-to-the-green-lobby.html

In his article Paterson refers to " The Green Blob...the mutually supportive network of environmental pressure groups, renewable energy companies and some public officials who keep each other well supplied with lavish funds, scare stories and green tape...". He goes on to say: "Local conservationists on the ground do wonderful work to protect and improve wild landscapes, as do farmers, rural businesses and ordinary people. They are a world away from the highly paid globe-trotters of the Green Blob who besieged me with their self-serving demands, many of which would have harmed the natural environment...".

However, anyone who hopes that a more nuanced and robust debate on the environment and green politics - including how we respond to climate change - may emerge from this outburst and counterblasts from the so-called "Green Blob", is very likely to be disappointed. Yet, although I've never warmed to Owen Paterson, there is a modicum of truth is what he has to say.

As someone who has been an environmentalist since the 1970s, I do find much of the contemporary UK green movement, including those worthy "conservationists" as well as the "environmental pressure groups", more akin to campaigning brand managers than organisations primarily concerned either with the natural environment or our built heritage, but then brand management is really what modern politics is all about.

Postscript : Monbiot's riposte to Paterson's "Green Blob" article -  http://www.monbiot.com/2014/07/22/bone-china-tea-party/

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

THE SOCIAL OCCULTATION OF NEO-MATHUSIANISM

I recently came across the expression "social occultation" - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_occultation - and suggest this applies to the subject of Neo-malthusianism - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism - in contemporary UK public policy making (and probably elsewhere). However, difficult issues which are suppressed tend not to go away and David Cameron and colleagues should consider this recent publication on "Malthus: The Life and Legacies of an Untimely Prophet" for their summer holiday reading. A review of this book can be found at http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/books/malthus-the-life-and-legacies-of-an-untimely-prophet-by-robert-j-mayhew/2013388.article

Saturday, June 28, 2014

BATTLES LOST ON THE PLAYING FIELDS OF ETON

Although "the famous quote attributed to Wellington" - "the battle of Waterloo was won on the playing fields of Eton" - "was probably apocryphal" according to Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterloo_in_popular_culture - David Cameron might like to reflect on whether his defeat in Europe yesterday was lost in the same place.

For our prime minister seems to lack a fundamental grasp of the history of the so-called European Project, which his predecessor Margaret Thatcher actually understood much better. As I pointed out in a post of last year - http://janetmackinnon.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/the-iron-ladies-thatcher-and-merkel.html - whilst Mr Cameron "may privately regard himself as "the Heir to Blair", it is surely the German Chancellor who is heiress of the original "Iron Lady's" drive for democratic liberation of the former Communist Europe where Angela Merkel spent her earlier life..." 

Thus the most significant event in Europe yesterday was not the UK's failure to influence the appointment of the next President of the European Commission, but the signing of a trade agreement between the European Union, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28052645 Moreover, without wishing to appear politically incorrect or incite old enmities, the concept of so-called "Lebensraum" or "Living Space" - http://www.historytoday.com/martyn-housden/lebensraum-policy-or-rhetoric - has always been an important aspect of Greater European Politics, something Russian President Vladimir Putin knows only too well.

Yet the prime minister and his government seem to have no grasp of wider European geo-politics at all. The fact is that the EU can well afford to lose Britain in the long term because the Ukraine - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine - as the largest country in Europe, and one of the few places in the world with surplus agricultural land resources, represents "Lebensraum". Although use of this expression  may be construed as anti-German, British colonial expansion was also strongly motivated by the political aim of increasing land and other natural resources available to a small nation state.

With this in mind, Mr Cameron might like to reflect on last week's figures from the Office of National Statistics which saw the UK population increase by the size of Scotland's, or about 5 million people, in the period between 2001-2013 - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2670751/Number-people-UK-smashes-64million-one-biggest-population-increases-Europe.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490 - together with a report by the University of Cambridge and the National Farmer's union which identifies a "significant" shortage of UK farmland by 2030: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-28003435

When I attended a Welsh comprehensive school in the 1970s, both "Lebensraum" (which I studied for my history O level) and Malthus - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus - whom I studied as part of my geography A level, were fairly key curriculum subjects. I do sometimes wonder what Mr Cameron and his friends learnt at school, apart from how to advance their own careers. However, this problem of the British elite is not new, as George Orwell, also an Eton school boy, wrote: "Probably the battle of Waterloo was won on the playing-fields of Eton, but the opening battles of all subsequent wars have been lost there."

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

IRAN WINS ENVIRONMENTAL GOAL AT WORLD CUP

Despite a 0-0 draw in its opening match against Nigeria, Iran has won an environmental goal at the Football World Cup by highlighting the challenge of wildlifee conservation through using the symbol of the threatened Persian cheetah on the team shirt and creating a "bio-ball" that is "painted with the design of 31 other countries' endangered species". Please see Iranian Environment Minister Massouhmeh Ebtekar's official "Persian Paradox" blog -  http://ebtekarm.blogspot.co.uk - which also provides an interesting account of both the legacy of the 1979 Revolution and "Prospects for Moderation" - http://ebtekarm.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/prospects-for-moderation.html

Sunday, June 15, 2014

BETTER INFORMATION AND LESS PROPAGANDA

Map showing "the expanding battleground" of ISIL or ISIS (Financial Times)
Perhaps it is because the UK is a major centre of the global religion known as commercial sport, of which the ageing media cleric Rupert Murdoch is a high priest, and with many newly-constructed shrines in need of dedicated patrons and pilgrims, that the BBC's coverage of world news, along with that of other British "informational" institutions, has declined in recent years. The recent history of Iraq illustrates this problem very well, and many of us beyond London's political-media classes are now engaged in a continuous pilgrimage on the World Wide Web in search of reliable information sources. However, although Iraq is an extreme news problem, as I'm now going to show, it is not exceptional.

At the end of last month, the UK Royal United Services Association published a study -
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/british-wars-iraq-afghanistan-29bn-failure-131807825.html#u2PIG17 - reported in the International Business Times, whose story was syndicated by Yahoo, to the effect that: "Britain's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan cost £29bn in government money and were strategic failures..... The 2003 invasion of Iraq fuelled the spread of radical Islam and terrorism in the UK and across the globe, according to the report by defence think-tank,  (RUSI)." In short, Iraq is bad news and this may account why the most recent outbreak of sectarianism has been poorly covered here.

I'm writing, of course, about the ISIL invasion of Iraq - http://www.ibtimes.com/it-isis-or-isil-jihadist-group-expanding-iraq-has-two-names-one-goal-1601346 - which is reported in another IBT - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Business_Times -  article. This clearly explains the evolution of ISIL, or ISIS (an acronym used by the BBC): "The group changed its name in 2012 from the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) to the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS), from the Arabic term for Levant, al-Sham. That is sometimes translated as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). It wanted to change its name to include a broader swathe of land, as its goal was to create an Islamic state based on Sharia, or Islamic law..." effectively from Iraq to the Eastern Mediterranean.

Wikipedia also has a comprehensive entry for ISIL - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_of_Iraq_and_the_Levant - which maintains that the group "have captured and currently use American weapons, vehicles and uniforms in their operations..." or as one commentator to an Israeli news site's coverage of ISIL put it earlier this week: "....they're driving Toyotas"! However, to understand how ISIL functions and, more importantly, what is being done to stop its advance in Iraq, one really needs to look to a range of sources, including the BBC, as the following articles show: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27789770; https://uk.news.yahoo.com/iraq-kurds-seize-kirkuk-sunni-militants-surge-toward-093901288.html#AWqpBsf ; http://rt.com/usa/165612-us-iran-allies-iraq-insurgency/

The Russian news agency RT article from Friday 13th June entitled "US air strikes to support Iranian Revolutionary Guard's offensive in Iraq?" is perhaps the most interesting "spin" on just how far the politics of this region have changed in recent years. In answering the question, the article states: "If so, US may find itself assisting its archnemesis in the Middle East to fight against Sunni militias that enjoy support from one of America's closest allies in the region, Saudi Arabia. The ruling family of the kingdom has long been accused of supplying jihadists all over the region with arms and financial support, the New York Times reported".

Map from Wikipedia (included in RT article) showing "Islam by country"

Included in the RT article is the above map which shows "Islam by country". Iran's isolation as the major centre of Shia Islam is obvious. With the exception of parts of Iraq, Sunni Muslims dominate the remainder of the Islamic world. However, the importance of this narrative is usually over-looked in the British media and the regional significance of Iran misunderstood, something I commented upon in a post of 22 April: http://janetmackinnon.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-history-of-very-iranian-revolution.html Such oversights may be partly the result of Arab and Israeli propaganda, with the latter sort promulgated today in The Jerusalem Post http://www.jpost.com/Jewish-World/Jewish-Features/Israeli-ambassador-to-UN-Iran-is-the-worlds-primary-sponsor-of-terrorism-359366

All this illustrates the complexity of the situation in the Middle East, and not least the ambiguous role played by so-called Western allies like Saudi Arabia and, possibly "stakeholders" within other Gulf States such as  Kuwait (whose experience of invasion from Iraq may have been forgotten), in both sponsoring extreme Islamist groups whilst ostensibly helping to combat terrorism in the region. It also suggests that the vast amount of Western money and other resources pumped in to Iraq after the 2003 US-UK led invasion has itself fuelled regional instability. However, it may be that a more liberal Iran can now play a constructive role in helping to tackle this.

News coverage that recognises this complexity and reports all the facts as far as difficult circumstances allow is essential. Equally important, adequate news time needs to be allocated. Given BBC programmes and schedules that seem to be filled with increasing trivia this should not be difficult. However, given the deep-rooted problems which the Corporation seems to have in reporting news from beyond the Home Counties (ie problems of the Home rather than the World Service) - as reflected in this recent BBC debate on housing http://www.lse.ac.uk/publicEvents/events/2014/06/20140609t1830vOT.aspx -  I will continue to multi-source both my international and national news feeds.

Postscript of 18 June 2014 - Since I wrote the above post, there's been a great improvement in the BBC's coverage of these issues and I very much hope this will extend to some other subjects.

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

A WIN FOR INDEPENDENCE FROM LONDON VOTE

Final Breakdown of UK vote in 2014 Euro Elections - Source: The Telegraph
Like many people I was surprised by the number of anti-EU candidates on my European Parliament election ballot paper last week. In fact, they were more numerous than those representing the main political parties, including the United Kingdom Independence Party, so I was not too surprised by the strength of the final UKIP vote, as shown in the above diagram.

One of the minority parties was called "An Independence from Europe". However, I would describe the election outcome as a win for the independence from London vote. In the capital, incidentally, UKIP secured only 11% of the vote with Labour in the lead position. Nationally, the election was a firm thumbs down amongst a minority turnout - about 33%  - who voted against the metropolitan elite.

UKIP leader Nigel Farage has shown himself extremely adept at challenging the London elite, except on their home ground. The big losers, of course, are the Liberal Democrats and leader Nick Clegg, in particular. The loss of their traditional stronghold amongst England's grass roots to UKIP and the Greens does indeed represent a tectonic shift - to quote the former deputy prime minister Lord Prescott - in British politics.

Friday, May 23, 2014

THE UK'S PROPOSED NEW EU REGIONAL AID MAP

Map A - Proposed UK Regional Aid (Assisted Areas) 2014-2020

Map B: Assisted Areas (excluding Northern Ireland) 2006-13
On 20 April 2014, Business Minister Michael Fallon announced a proposed new regional aid package for the UK giving potential access to European Union funding - http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmhansrd/cm140430/wmstext/140430m0001.htm The Minister's announcement included the following comments:

"The Commission’s regional aid guidelines (RAG) define the parameters for assisted areas for 2014 to 2020. Under the guidelines the UK’s overall regional aid coverage may cover a maximum of 27.05% of the UK population, an increase on the 23.9% coverage in 2007-14.

Working within the guidelines, assisted areas coverage has been granted based on the potential to use regional aid to encourage economic growth through levering private sector investment, as well as the economic need of the locality. A strong principle underpinning the map is for coverage to focus on areas that are able to use the flexibility provided: many parts of the UK do not have the scale of industrial or development sites necessary to exploit assisted area status.

There was a high level of demand for assisted areas status, and given the limited population coverage available, we have targeted those areas that can benefit most. The UK’s industrial heartlands are central to the map, and a wide range of different sized manufacturers are included, from the high-tech sectors at the core of our industrial strategy to the more traditional industries that still provide vital employment to many communities. Support will also be available for additional disadvantaged coastal areas. Sites and businesses that can support growth in less advantaged localities have been included, as well as many that will make significant contributions to growth at a regional and national level."

The devil, as they say, is in the detail and included amongst the proposed areas identified is a greenfield site to the north-east of Worcester, near Junction 6 of the M5 motorway. A technology park proposal for this location was refused a £18 million grant from the Department for Business Innovation and Skills Regional Growth Fund last year following due diligence. The project is a controversial one which has been opposed by local communities because of its environmental impact and by Birmingham City Council and others because of its potential for undermining economic regeneration at Longbridge and elsewhere in the West Midlands conurbation.

With this "case study" in mind, and when comparing the UK Assisted Areas Map (A) for 2014-20 with than of the period for 2006-2013 (Map B), it does seem that the industrial regeneration impetus of regional policy which favoured older urban areas with major brownfield sites is being eroded in favour of promoting greenfield development, whether this represents sustainable value for money or just the present geography of political influence is a subject to which I shall return.

Friday, May 09, 2014

GOVERNMENT EVERGREENING OF UK ECONOMY

Whe David Cameron declared that the Coalition was going to be "the greenest government ever"   and upset the Green Great and Good - http://www.jonathonporritt.com/Campaigns/greenest-government-ever - I just put this down to a "Dave the Vague" moment (of which there have been many!). However, the prime minister has turned out to be a more "eel-like customer", to use a recent Boris Johnson description of Tony Blair, than I initially envisaged. The big difference, of course, is that the nation's coffers are far more depleted than in the heady days of "New Labour" and, so thankfully, opportunities for foreign misadventures have been restricted, but that is about the only good news.

My guess is that when Mr Cameron referred to "the greenest government ever" he really meant that the Coalition would engage in the greatest "evergreening"* of any modern British administration. Now the term "evergreen" is used with a number of different meanings so I will clarify its usage in this post by referring to a Financial Times article of 25 March 2011 - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/59864380-570f-11e0-9035-00144feab49a.html#axzz31CkN4Zo5 - entitled ""Evergreening" will still leave UK banks in the red". Written by Marryn Somerset Webb, of Money Week and SuperScrimpers fame, the article uses "evergreen" according to the FT Lexicon - http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=evergreen-loan -  to mean a "short-term loan that is continuously renewed by the lender." The FT's Gillian Tett also uses the expression with the same meaning in an article of 30 December 2010 - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c23e885e-1422-11e0-a21b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31CkN4Zo5 - on the subject: "Commercial property loans pose new threat".

To return to the Somerset Webb article, she comments: "One of the odd things that happens after a credit crisis is bad loan “evergreening”. Banks need to reduce their loan books to get their capital adequacy ratios back in order. But they can’t get rid of their low-quality loans (they need to keep rolling them over so no defaults turn up). As a result, they end up reducing their good loans instead. This looks slightly counter intuitive from the outside (bank in trouble reallocates its business away from good-quality assets towards lower-quality assets) but it makes sense for the bank: it buys it time to run down the bad loans slowly and earn its way out of trouble."

Unfortunately, the scale of the financial crisis and the level of state involvement in the banking sector, as well as the wider structure of the UK economy (which certainly has not re-balanced since 2010!) has meant that the Coalition has also followed this strategy. In short, lots of bad historic loans, including those obtained by public sector and other organisations under the so-called Private Finance Initiative (PFI) - see my earlier post below - have been, or are in the process of being, evergreened. This is not good news, as noted in 2012 by the TaxPayers' Alliance - https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/bettergovernment/2012/07/pfi-deals-costing-300-billion.html - who refer to a Guardian newspaper article of 5 July: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/jul/05/pfi-cost-300bn

The big difference between state and bank "evergreening", of course, is that the mechanism is not restricted to short-term loans. In the case of the UK government, "long-term evergreening" is the name of the game. However, whilst this may help shore up the nation's finances until after the next General Election, the strategy, as Marryn Somerset Webb notes, has the downside of diverting resources from good projects. This accounts for the lack of positive investment, in for instance the green economy, which many identify with the Coalition, and leaves me wondering whether evergreening will not just leave the country in the red, but also colour the nation's vote in 2015.

* "Evergreening" is also used to describe controversial practices associated with the pharmaceuticals industry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evergreening

Monday, May 05, 2014

THE GLOBAL GRAB FOR LAND AND RESOURCES

The sale of farmland belonging to the troubled UK Co-operative Group - http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/may/03/co-op-farms-sale-chinese-buyers - has highlighted the global grab for land and resources, of which Britain is both an origin and destination: "In a similar way to central London property, farmland is now seen as a safe bet by foreign investors – while the average value of prime residential property in London has grown by 135% over the last decade, the value of prime British farmland has increased 273% to an average price of £8,500 per acre, according to Savills." In this case, it is the prospect of a single Chinese buyer for the Co-op's 17 000 hectares (44 000 acres) which is cause for concern. However, research by Land Matrix - www.landmatrix.org - shows that the British are just as active in international land investment. An extensive article in the United States Monthly Review - http://monthlyreview.org/2013/11/01/twenty-first-century-land-grabs - by Fred Magdoff, professor emeritus of plant and soil science at the University of Vermont, covers the history of the land grab from a global perspective. However, whilst the present focus of attention is agricultural land, this should be seen in the larger context of a grab for the earth's resources. It is to be hoped, therefore, that environmental and natural resource economics, as well as land economy, will be on the preferred curricula of the International Student Initiative for Pluralist Economics - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Student_Initiative_for_Pluralism_in_Economics - whose open letter (from the Glasgow Unversity Real World Economics Society) in today's Guardian calls for their subject to respond to "the multi-dimensional challenges of the 21st century - from financial stability to food security and climate change".

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

THE STATE OF SPATIAL ECONOMICS WE'RE IN



"Rerum Causas Cognoscere" or "To Know the Causes of Things" is the motto of the London School of Economics and Political Science (known as the LSE) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_School_of_Economics - whose rather attractive coat of arms is shown above. Incidentally, I am also a big fan of beavers who are amongst the great builders of the animal kingdom, and construction is one of the key themes of this post.  Moreover, the LSE has an excellent mission statement, to use a modern expression, and one whose aspirations I very much support. Indeed it would serve as a fine motto for all higher education research institutions. Unfortunately, the wider ambitions of the UK universities sector, much of which now resembles a property development enterprise, rather than a fountain of knowledge, often work against these loftier aims.

I was reminded of this academic state of affairs earlier this week, when trying to post a comment about an article on some LSE spatial economics research on the Planning Resource website - please see http://www.planningresource.co.uk/article/1291801/discriminatory-green-belt-policies-causing-housing-affordability-crisis-says-lse-professor - I found myself suddenly censored. Therefore, having been cut short and fearing further censorship, I shall endeavour to answer the question of a fellow Planning Resource contributor on my own blog: thank goodness for Google! In response to my expression of concern about the impartiality of LSE research, due to the funding regime for this and similar institutions, a  Lawrence Revill (whom I suspect is a planning consultant) asked: "Just what, precisely, has that got to do with the Emeritus Professor of Economic Geography and his views on the Green Belt? Please show some perspective." Indeed I will, Mr Revill, in the following account. "Rerum Causas Cognoscere"!

The Emeritus Professor, and member of the LSE's Spatial Economics Research Centre, in question is Paul Cheshire  http://www.lse.ac.uk/researchAndExpertise/Experts/profile.aspx?KeyValue=p.cheshire%40lse.ac.uk The Spatial Economics Research Centre  http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/SERC/about/default.asp -  describes its mission thus: "Economic prosperity in the UK is very unevenly distributed across space. Tackling these persistent disparities is a key policy objective. The Spatial Economics Research Centre (SERC) aims to provide a rigorous understanding of the nature, extent, causes and consequences of these disparities, and to identify appropriate policy responses." This sounds highly admirable so it comes as a surprise to me that Professor Cheshire's research article* - http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cp417.pdf - should advocate policies likely to exacerbate persistent regional disparities in economic prosperity.

So let's look at what the Professor had to say. The basic thesis is that not enough housing has been built nationally, and, particularly, in the Home Counties around London in the past 20 years. Leaving aside the national picture, about which his article doe not really concern itself, the real bete noir for Cheshire is the capital's green belt of which he says: "What SERC research has shown is that the only value of greenbelts is for those who own houses within them (gibbons et al, 2011). What greenbelts seem to be is a very British form of discriminatory zoning, keeping the urban unwashed out of the Home Counties - and of course helping to turn houses into investment assets rather than places to live in". Given that the whole modus operandi of British economic policy has been driven by rentier capitalism during the period in question, this seems to be a remarkably naive statement from an "Emeritus Professor of Economic Geography" at the LSE!

Indeed, my censored comment on the Planning Resource website highlighted a "popular" post from the LSE SERC's blog - http://spatial-economics.blogspot.co.uk/ - entitled "How many French people live in London?" which opens thus: "According to the BBC London is now France's sixth biggest city: "The French consulate in London estimates between 300,000 and 400,000 French citizens live in the British capital" which compares to city populations as follows: Paris - 2.3m; Lyon - 488,000; Marseille - 859,000; Toulouse - 447,000; Nice 344 000." What this illustrates is the increasing globalisation of London since the 1990s. In terms of capital flows, London vies with New York as the world's most globalised city http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_city The capital has become a magnet for international property investment and uber wealthy people, as well as a preferred destination for an increasingly globalised workforce. This has been the major factor in the increasing cost and shortage of London housing.

Although I have suggested that Professor Cheshire is naive, I do not believe this to be the case. The LSE and other British universities have capitalised on the attraction of London for international students. Moreover, there does seem to have been something of a "London effect" as foreign students spread around the country and universities court them with increasingly high-specification (and expensive) campuses. It is quite possible that the LSE has its sights on a new greenfield site in the Homes Counties, with supporting development, including possibly a world-class golf course. For my own part, I shall be delighted if the main activity of London's green belt remains intensive agriculture. As an economic geographer, the Emeritus Professor should know very well that this is one the most suitable roles for it.

*  Some of the claims in this article (eg as much land given over to golf courses as housing in England) were subsequently challenged in a BBC radio 4 More or Less programme http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b044jh75

Thursday, April 24, 2014

NUCLEAR POWER: IS THERE NO TURNING BACK?

The above graphic is taken from an article on the Aljazeera website this week - http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/04/antagonising-iran-strategic-mis-201442161724450258.html - by Seyed Mohammad Marandi, a professor of North American Studies and dean of the Faculty of World Studies at the University of Tehran. This came to my attention, incidentally, via Iranian Vice President Massoumeh Ebtekar's "Persian Paradox" blog yesterday (please see my earlier post). Aside from offering an interesting back story to the present controversy surrounding Iran's civil nuclear programme, the article has a wider relevance for international energy policy in an age of so-called transition to sustainable development.

Professor Marandi's article opens as follows:

"Even though it was a major exporter of crude oil and held some of the world's largest natural gas reserves, Iran made a compelling case over half-a-century ago that it needed, almost immediately, to produce an additional 20,000 megawatts of electricity by constructing 23 nuclear power plants. At the same time, Iran's government made the case that the country needed to acquire the capacity to enrich uranium in order to fabricate the reactor fuel for such an ambitious programme.

Western governments eagerly endorsed these arguments, praising Iran's then Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's ambition to rapidly modernise Iran while overlooking the reality that he was presiding over a ruthless dictatorship and diverting much needed capital to purchase massive amounts of weapons from the US and other Western countries. And so, during the 1960s and 1970s, billions of dollars were invested in establishing an Iranian nuclear programme and training thousands of Iranian nuclear experts in the West - until Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution replaced the monarchy with an Islamic Republic..."

In short, Iran's energy pathway has very much reflected that of Western nations, although a number of these, including the United States and, most recently, Germany, have moved away from civil nuclear power in the period since the 1980s for reasons of cost and safety associated with both generation and waste disposal. Meanwhile, other countries, notably Russia and China, have forged ahead with nuclear development programmes notwithstanding major accidents at Chernobyl in the Ukraine (then part of the Soviet Union) during 1986 and Fukushima in Japan following the earthquake and Tsunami of 2011. It should be noted that Iran is also located in a major earthquake zone:  http://www.ibtimes.com/iran-earthquake-strikes-near-bushehr-nuclear-power-plant-1489402

The current popularity of nuclear power has much to do with the need to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide that are the major contributor to the green house effect associated with global warming. However, the nuclear option also offers the prospect of national energy security for countries increasingly concerned about their dependency on foreign gas supplies. Whilst Iran, "with the world's second-largest proven reserves of natural gas", as Professor Marandi notes in his article, does not have such concerns, much of Europe is reliant upon Russian supplies, and this is a key factor in the current Ukrainian crisis.

Nevertheless, it should be remembered that the accident at Ukraine's Chernobyl plant was probably the single most important event in turning the world against nuclear power in the last decade of the twentieth century. Moreover, the former Soviet regime's attempt to cover up the seriousness of this incident is widely cited as a major contributory factor in its demise only five years later. The problem with nuclear energy is that the conseqeunces can be very serious indeed if things go wrong. Iran, along with the rest of the world, would be wise to remember this.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

THE HISTORY OF A VERY IRANIAN REVOLUTION

A young woman protests in Iran's so-called "Green Revolution" (for greater democracy) in 2009. The country is currently experiencing a wave of environmentalism, in part supported by Iranian Vice President Ebtekar
I had a look at - as distinct from a full reading of - Michael Axworthy's "Revolutionary Iran" over the Easter Bank Holiday. Whilst the book is now on my "To Read" list, just thought I'd share a few thoughts on a history which has just been brought bang up to date by Penguin (an updated paperback version came out this spring).

However, let me first caveat my comments by saying that I have never visited Iran and met very few Iranians. Other reviewers have described Axworthy as an "Iranophile" and some people may not share all his views. Nevertheless, the book resonates with my own limited knowledge and experience.

Ironically, perhaps most of all for the Americans, Iran has been an unexpected beneficiary of the  former United States-led "War on Terror" in Iraq and Afghanistan (countries where previous regimes and extremist groups had received US assistance before they turned against their western benefactors). As Axworthy points out: "The Iranians helped the coalition powers to set up the new democratic structures in both countries, though this has often gone unacknowledged. Instead, Iran has perversely been blamed for the fact that the removal of these enemies in Iraq and Afghanistan has enhanced Iran's regional (ie Middle Eastern) influence".

Although Axworthy locates the Iranian Revolution of 1979 - and the removal of American together with other western powers from the country - within the great revolutionary trajectory which started in France and moved through Russia and thence to Tehran, I see Iran more as the location of the 20th century's third great revolution, following on from the Soviet and the Chinese. The question will be whether the key religious dimension of "Revolutionary Iran" will be sustained in the future, or whether Iran, like Russia and China, will be overcome by the same kind of secular materialism which has engulfed these and most other countries. Only time will tell.

For the 2014 Penguin edition of  "Revolutionary Iran" see  http://www.penguin.co.uk/nf/Book/BookDisplay/0,,9780141046235,00.html
Iranian Vice President Massoumeh Ebtekar's "Persian Paradox" Blog can be found at  http://ebtekarm.blogspot.co.uk/