LOWERING THE VOLUME OF FUTURE BABBLE

I am currently reading "Future Babble" by Dan Gardner, and note the introductory chapter's reference to an IMF economist's view that his profession's "record of failure to predict recessions in virtually unblemished".

Although "Future Babble" seems to set up a dichotomy, rather than a discourse, between technological optimists and ecological pessimists, Gardner's perspicacity cannot be faulted.

The case of Robert Schiller, the Yale economist who wrote "Irrational Exuberance" in 2000, and revised this in 2005, is used by Gardner to illustrate a particular problem with professional experts. Although Schiller was one of the few economists to predict the global financial disaster of 2008, in his capacity as an adviser to a US bank he "felt the need to use restraint". The consensus at the bank was that there was no housing bubble in the US, a position Schiller's conceded because: "Deviating too far from consensus leaves one feeling potentially ostracised from the group, with the risk that one may be terminated".

"Groupthink", as Gardner argues, "is very much a disease that can strike experts. In fact, psychologist Irving Janis coined the term "groupthink" to describe expert behaviour...."

My own strategy for dealing with expert and wider non-expert "future babble", and indeed group think, is to treat these as background noise: something to be acknowledged, ignored and taken into account as appropriate.

ESSENTIAL CONDITIONS FOR THE BIG SOCIETY

"There has got to be a new era of transparency, accountability and openness." Eric Pickles

Like most people, I'm still not sure what "The Big Society" is all about, although I like this quote from the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government obtained from an Insight Public Affairs briefing on the subject.

THE MOTHER OF ALL MURDOCHS' ADVICE

Perhaps the most salutary lesson to emerge from the furore surrounding Murdoch Media, currently engulfing the attentions of the British political upper classes, is the fact that Rupert's mother Dame Elisabeth, who is 102, has over the years strongly advised him against unwarranted journalistic invasions of privacy. Would that son had taken mother's advice!

THE OLD WOMAN MOUNTAIN DREAMING

Realising that my previous posts may have offended fans of the Australian Thorny Devil, I decided to consult the treasure trove of Aboriginal myth, medicine and magic this morning - having previously outed myself as "The Witch of Worcester" - and found this gem on the Aboriginal Art Store website:

"The Old Woman Mountain Dreaming (or Thorny Devil Lizard) is a major Dreaming story from this region (called Utopia!*) and features prominently in several art works. This creation story tells of the journey of the female ancestors as they travelled across country pinpointing relevant significant sites essential for survival. In the artworks these references are depicted as a symbolic line of trees indicating the location of underground water, the seasonal cycle and location of various native food or the sites of waterholes."

More on Utopia Aboriginal Art can be found @ http://www.aboriginalartstore.com.au/

Applying the wisdom of Aboriginal female ancestors to current events in Britain, I would suggest that Mrs Rebekah Brooks, along with many others, might benefit from some time in the wilderness, having spent a few years there myself I can't recommend it enough!

Also drawing a personal message from "The Old Woman Mountain Dreaming", I feel recalled to attend to sustainable planning issues, and the protection of "significant sites essential for survival" around Worcester and Environs (and elsewhere) from speculative development. Once again the importance of "Water Issues" can't be underestimated.

The Witch of Worcester can be found @ http://witchofworcester.wordpress.com/

* My brackets

MEDIA ALTERNATIVES TO MOLOCH HORRIBUS*

Yesterday I touched upon the importance of aims and objectives in decision-making, and today want to highlight the issue of alternative scenarios, options for achieving these and their possible downsides. In the case of British press and broadcasting, for instance, whilst foreign investment may desirable, one would not wish the Chinese state media to take a controlling stake in BSkyB.

*The Australian Thorny Devil at the helm of Murdoch Media.
Image: Wikipedia Media Commons

THE IMPORTANCE OF AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Assisting clients with clarification of their aims and objectives, and identifying the best means of achieving these, including different courses of action and the effects of these upon stakeholders, represent some of the most important tasks of the management consultant.

My advice to British politicians would be to remember these tasks in their dealings with Murdoch Media. Some may wish to oust the group from UK press and broadcasting, but I doubt this is the consensus view, which is probably represented in "better the devil you know".

MURDOCH MEDIA: A VERY BRITISH COUP?

Whilst Ed Miliband has emerged as the leader of today's parliamentary coup intended to rout Murdoch Media's takeover of BSkyB, I'm still left wondering whether this remains a phony war.

The "leader image" shows an Australian Thorny Devil or Moloch Horridus.

THE WEAKNESS OF WESTERN CURRENCIES

The "blame game" around the unfolding tale of corruption and malpractice at UK News International - just remember that the rot set in under New Labour and Ken Livingstone's mayoral responsibilities for the Metropolitan Police - provides an analogous side-show to the bigger, and largely untold, story concerning the current weakness of western currencies.

It is as if the so-called "Decline of the West" has now been consciously accepted and the only way is down, or downunder, East or Essex.

So politicians in the United States, along with those in the UK, look forward to a weakening of the Euro, because this improves the prospects of their own weak currencies. Indeed, much of the anti-Euro sentiment in the North American and British media derives from this express wish.

Meanwhile, supporters of the Euro within and outside the Eurozone have worked together to maintain the value of the currency, notwithstanding the media assault.

Perhaps we just need a "New Media"in the West. I certainly wouldn't give a "ForEx" for much of the present one, even the apparently respectable institutions behave little better than the rent boys and girls of political and corporate sentiment alot of the time.

GEORGE OSBORNE AND THE POUND SHOP

My last post concluded with an expression of concern about the UK becoming the economic equivalent of a "Pound Shop", and I shall probe this comparison further today, but first some reference must be made to those "Events", dear boys and girls.

I refer, of course, to "News of the World's End" - and having purchased yesterday's final edition shall allude to this further -together with the re-entry of the "C-Word", or "Corruption", into the British political lexicon. Needless to say, some will feel that the four letter C-word may best describe some of the parties involved, but this blog won't devalue itself by resorting to such language.

It will, nevertheless, remind readers that it was George Osborne, as shadow chancellor, who recommended to David Cameron the appointment of Andy Coulson as his party's head of communications, following the departure of the latter from the News of the World. Readers should also be aware that Mr Osborne's judgement in the choice of some of his friends is no better, and possibly worse, than that of the Prime Minister. The role of a former Eton friend in the 2008 "Yachtgate Affair" is a case in point.

Indeed, I would strongly caution both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer against the appointment of people they might think of as friends to positions of power, and opt instead for relationships with colleagues of the kind described by former Conservative deputy prime minister Lord Heseltine in BBC Radio 4's "Meeting Myself Coming Back" series.

Returning to the currency issue, yesterday's News of the World did in fact carry a rather good article on the financial advantages of holidaying in Blackpool this Summer: something the Osborne family might like to consider. The particular reason for Blackpool being an increasing destination of choice is the weakness of the pound, particularly against the Euro.

The weakness of the pound is, however, very much a double-edged sword where the British economy is concerned because of our heavy reliance upon imports. Even manufacturing, widely regarded as being a beneficiary of the present situation, is disadvantaged because the raw materials and components of production are increasingly purchased abroad.

Moreover, the situation is made worse because much of Britain's manufacturing amounts to little more than assembly, something to which the Chancellor and Business Secretary Vince Cable should attend more. In effect, much of the UK is now the branch office/plant economy once used to describe the fate of the West Midlands.

The response of Mr Osborne and his colleagues to "re-balancing the economy" seems to consist mainly of policies to re-stimulate the construction sector, albeit that funding for projects - such as some grants made through the Regional Growth Fund (of which Lord Heseltine is Chairman) - is dressed up as support for manufacturing. The identification of "growth" with the development of greenfield sites is also reminiscent of planning policy during the Thatcher governments.

In short, much of the Coalition's efforts to date on economic policy hark back to the major regional infrastructure and construction programmes of the second half of the twentieth century. These palpably failed to support endogenous productive enterprise, and ultimately led to the retreat from these activities which characterised the New Labour regime in the first decade of the present millennium.

Instead, the Coalition should be focused on the creation of an added-value economy with a currency which reflects this. The nearest approximation to this economic state of affairs is Germany, and, notwithstanding the very real problems of the Eurozone, the relative strength of the Euro compared to UK Sterling reflects this situation. As noted in an earlier post, the Euro also has the advantage of its reserve currency status.

So what should the Chancellor of the Exchequer do about the Great British "Pound Shop"? Government policy should recognise that whilst bargain basements do have a role, these do not provide a model for sustainable economic development, as evidenced in any UK high street. The Chancellor must, therefore, act against practices within the financial sector which are currently undermining the value of UK plc, at the cost of making London less attractive to certain types of speculator.

Whether the present incumbent of Number 11 is up to this task is the question. I still favour "Big Beast" Ken Clarke for the role of chancellor. The sadly disgraced David Laws might have been up to the job, but probably not (again sadly) Vince Cable, for reasons I shall almost certainly cover in a future post. Ironically, however, failure on the current Chancellor's part could render British membership of the Euro a real option.

POLITICS: THESE BOYS & GIRLS WORRY ME

Reflecting recently on the dangers to British parliamentarians of foreign holidays, I was drawn to a blog by George Warner in the Telegraph concerning the "Yachtgate Affair" of 2008 which included the refrain "that boy Osborne worries me".

The sight of our boyish Chancellor looking bemused on the Government's front benches as "News of the World's End" unfolded yesterday was a strong reminder that the politics of fatal distraction remain as much a clear and present danger as ever.

For whatever Andy Coulson's misdemeanors, it must be remembered that, unlike his New Labour predecessor and another onetime tabloid editor, David Cameron's former head of communications did not falsify documents which played a key role in the run up to the Iraq war.

Nevertheless, Coulson's appointment was clearly a misjudgement on the part of our Prime Minister, of the kind which British politics has been riddled for the past ten years or so and from which shows few signs of recovery.

A recent article in the Telegraph by the Chic-Lit author Louise Bagshawe, who as a Conservative MP now uses her new married name of Mensch, illustrates why the generation of MPs who have come to power since 2000 are prone to such misjudgements.

The subject of the Bagshawe-Mensch article is former New Labour minister, and wife of shadow chancellor Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper, for whom the lady author - who was for a time a member of the New Labour Party - seems to have developed a crush.

These same sex crushes, often amongst married people, seem to characterise relationships amongst the political and media classes, compromising professional judgements and contributing to Britain's recent poor record of government.

They are, in my view, a particular shortcoming of people who attend same sex private schools, although by no means the exclusive preserve of such institutions. Vain men and women of the kind attracted to careers in politics and the media are most prone to such crushes.

Therefore, I would especially caution "Geogeous George" Osborne in his choice of advisors, for the clear and present danger in my view is UK plc becoming the economic equivalent of a "Pound Shop" if he doesn't attend to attend to issues currently underlying the weakness of Sterling.

These boys and girls worry me.

POST-FEMINIST MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVE

Like most women, I want to see my gender better represented in positions of power. However, I'm not convinced that women make better or more progressive managers than men. The case of Murdoch media moll Rebekah Brooks (nee Wade) is a classic example of female management providing a cover for practices even most hardened male hacks would blench at. Women can be just as unethical, ruthless and unenlightened as men, so whilst supporting the IMF's appointment of Madame Lagarde, I disagree with her that a "Lehman Sisters" might have averted the banking crisis.

COMETH THE HOUR, COMETH THE WOMAN

News that Gina Reinhart, heiress to an Australian mining empire, is likely to become the world's richest person - with a personal net worth estimated at $100 billion - comes as Christine Lagarde is made executive head of the International Monetary Fund.

The latter appointment has noticeably bought complaints from some male economists, as Lagarde was an international lawyer before taking up her previous position as French finance minister.

However, Reinhart's potential replacement of Microsoft's Bill Gates (or the founder of IKEA according to some reports) as the wealthiest person on the planet does not seem to have raised many eyebrows.

What it does reflect is the continuing importance of natural assets and resources - coal and iron in this case - to economic development, something the male-dominated economics profession has failed to adequately acknowledge in recent years.

Indeed their frequent inability to see elephants in the room is one very good reason for the IMF to appoint a non-economist as its new head, although Madame Lagarde should remember not to forget her spectacles (as she did at her first meeting as a member of the French government).