The following views are expressed by John Stepek in today's Money Morning, the daily online newsletter of Money Week magazine.
The Governor "and other members of the Bank of England have warned that the Bank
isn’t going to rush into printing more money in November. And it’s not
just because of the GDP bounce. It’s because he’s not sure it can solve
Britain’s problems.
King reckons – and I wouldn’t disagree – that the basic problem is
the banks are still sitting on too much bad debt. The debt needs to be
recognised and its value written down (or written off). The banks then
need to be patched up. All that needs to happen before banks are
willing to lend again.
“In the 1930s, faced with problems of sovereign and other debt
similar to those of today, the pretence that debts could be repaid was
maintained for far too long. We must not repeat that mistake.”
However, we are repeating it. The trouble is, the “significant
writing down of asset values” that King refers to, would involve
allowing house prices to fall. In Britain, house prices are the single
most important economic indicator, politically speaking. When house
prices are falling, governments lose elections.
It’s why public policy, the tax system, and central bank
activities, are all horribly skewed towards propping up the property
market. Yet with the banks aware that they are over-exposed to an
over-valued sector of the economy, they aren’t going to be keen to lend
more until the risk is no longer so high.
This unravelling could take a very long time to play out. We can’t
expect rampant global growth to help us out. So the Bank of England will
continue to have to walk the line between allowing ‘too much’
inflation to get into the system, and keeping rates low enough to
cushion those with large debts. That leaves Britain vulnerable to nasty
external shocks."
Monday, October 29, 2012
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
LEARNING TO DEAL WITH PARALLEL NARRATIVES
As the shadow side of the Jimmy Savile story continues to darken the corridors of power, two programmes on Radio 4 yesterday evening explored the issues of parallel narratives and accepted historical accounts.
The first programme about Peter Rachman discovered that the notorious slum landlord was not so much a manifestation of post-war laissez-faire conservatism as a precursor of the main social policies embraced by New Labour during the first decade of the twenty-first century.
Later, "Analysis" brought a discussion of Education Secretary Michael Gove's support for "Cultural Literacy", or instilling children and young people with a core set of facts to counter-balance the current emphasis on core skills and competences.
However, the case of Savile and, indeed, that of Rachman show that dominant narratives and their apparent facts may later be revealed as incomplete. Michael Gove himself recognises this problem and has suggested that a parallel narratives approach is sometimes needed.
Citing the 1950s Japanese film Rashomon, where four people have different recollections of the same event, the Education Secretary has suggested that this cultural format may throw light on the conflicting stories of former Chief Whip Andrew Mitchell and the Downing Street police officer.
The first programme about Peter Rachman discovered that the notorious slum landlord was not so much a manifestation of post-war laissez-faire conservatism as a precursor of the main social policies embraced by New Labour during the first decade of the twenty-first century.
Later, "Analysis" brought a discussion of Education Secretary Michael Gove's support for "Cultural Literacy", or instilling children and young people with a core set of facts to counter-balance the current emphasis on core skills and competences.
However, the case of Savile and, indeed, that of Rachman show that dominant narratives and their apparent facts may later be revealed as incomplete. Michael Gove himself recognises this problem and has suggested that a parallel narratives approach is sometimes needed.
Citing the 1950s Japanese film Rashomon, where four people have different recollections of the same event, the Education Secretary has suggested that this cultural format may throw light on the conflicting stories of former Chief Whip Andrew Mitchell and the Downing Street police officer.
Sunday, October 14, 2012
WHAT IS THE POINT OF THE BBC? HYSTERIA?
Last year Quentin Letts hosted a rather thought-provoking little series on BBC Radio 4 which asked: "What's the point of...?" various British institutions. The second series was something of a disappointment, possibly due to Corporation dumbing-down. An attempt by Radio 4's "The Moral Maze" to ask the question "what's the point of the BBC?" last week had some interesting contributions and responses from the panel, but the discussion was too short. The role of the BBC, along with other national British institutions, does, however, need to be properly considered, and as a contribution to the - albeit suppressed - national debate, this blog is starting its own series on UK institutions.
I will argue that "Hysteria" is playing an increasingly important role in these institutions, and a desire, conscious or unconscious, to create hysterical responses across the nation to a range of past, present and possible future events. The BBC's response to the crimes of Jimmy Savile is a case in point. Meanwhile, other important news has been sidelined by the Corporation, including its often rather hysterical coverage of events in Europe. This culture of "Institutional Hysteria", as I shall call it, possibly arises from our country having always had a rather incestuous elite, and one increasingly obsessed with money and celebrity. The fact that Savile personified these qualities no doubt goes a long way towards explaining why questions about him may have been raised but were not answered.
I will argue that "Hysteria" is playing an increasingly important role in these institutions, and a desire, conscious or unconscious, to create hysterical responses across the nation to a range of past, present and possible future events. The BBC's response to the crimes of Jimmy Savile is a case in point. Meanwhile, other important news has been sidelined by the Corporation, including its often rather hysterical coverage of events in Europe. This culture of "Institutional Hysteria", as I shall call it, possibly arises from our country having always had a rather incestuous elite, and one increasingly obsessed with money and celebrity. The fact that Savile personified these qualities no doubt goes a long way towards explaining why questions about him may have been raised but were not answered.
Friday, October 12, 2012
THE EUROPE 2020 COMPETITIVENESS REPORT
The World Economic Forum's Europe 2020 Competitiveness Report, published last June, makes for some interesting reading.
Planners and environmentalists should take heart in its advice to the UK, ranked 7th overall but only 12th against green criteria:
"Finally, in order to ensure a more harmonious development process, greater focus should be placed on several dimensions supporting environmental sustainability".
David Cameron and colleagues please take note!
Planners and environmentalists should take heart in its advice to the UK, ranked 7th overall but only 12th against green criteria:
"Finally, in order to ensure a more harmonious development process, greater focus should be placed on several dimensions supporting environmental sustainability".
David Cameron and colleagues please take note!
Tuesday, October 09, 2012
THE PROBLEMS OF BRITISH POWER POLITICS
Several years ago I went to a very good conference on the potential for renewable energy development in Britain. However, whilst broadly sympathetic to renewables, I still had some hard questions to ask, and, because this was a conference for the converted, I felt regarded as the enemy. Fast forward to the present, and I recently attended an equally good economics discussion. On this occasion, it was my use of expressions like environmental advocacy and planning that seemed to cause a noticeable tremor in the room. Nevertheless, the company was rather better tempered.
The major similarity between the two events was a poor understanding of the role of spatial or land use planning, as distinct from Soviet-style centralised economic or energy planning. Now, as someone with an MSc in Urban and Regional Planning Studies conferred by a university economics department, with over twenty five years' experience of spatial planning and project development, I feel reasonably well equipped to explore this important difference. So let me start with land use planning.
In fact, land use planning in the UK - outside Scotland where its strategic importance is still acknowledged - has been largely abandoned in favour of regional spatial strategies (RSS) and local development frameworks. The RSS are also now in the process of abolition. Incidentally, I support the retention of regional planning albeit with a lighter touch. Meanwhile, council-led local planning has become an essentially administrative process, with the hard skills once identified with the land use planner's profession, including architecture, urban design and engineering, largely outsourced to other agencies and, particularly, consultants.
This erosion of planning by successive governments has led to the increasing inability of local plans to fulfil their most important purpose: to direct development to the most appropriate locations relative to its type and scale whilst having regard to existing infrastructure, or probable investment therein, and comprehensive environmental impact assessments. Such direction is, I would argue, especially important for energy planning, and it is the weakness of the spatial planning system and associated environmental regulation in England, most particularly, which has acted to inhibit the development of renewable energy.
To turn now to centralised economic and energy planning, most ordinary people recognise that, notwithstanding the British - or rather English - political penchant for free market rhetoric over the past thirty or so years, this actually disguises an equally strong commitment to central government control, regardless of which parties happen to be in power. The case of nuclear power illustrates this situation very well, for there would be no development of new capacity if this were left to market forces alone. The recent history of nuclear development in the United States shows that strong government financial support is essential.
However, it is not my intention here to consider the pros and cons of different forms of power generation, but to argue that a spatial plan, ideally encompassing the whole of the British Isles and international connectivity, is needed. By such connectivity, I mean a plan which recognises current supply lines and potential future developments, notably international energy super grids. Such a plan would, of course, have to recognise the vital principle of subsidiarity in order to encourage regional and local ingenuity. Similarly, a coherent and long term national regulatory and incentives-based framework would need to be in place to support appropriate investment.
Is an integrated - economic and spatial - planning scenario for energy generation and supply in Britain of the kind I have described a realistic possibility? Perhaps a better question is: can the UK for reasons of economic security as well as environmental sustainability afford not to take this approach? For the "business as usual scenario", where our national politics of power are essentially left to the power politics of day, is no longer viable in an increasingly internationalised energy market where the forces in operation may not always espouse freedom.
The major similarity between the two events was a poor understanding of the role of spatial or land use planning, as distinct from Soviet-style centralised economic or energy planning. Now, as someone with an MSc in Urban and Regional Planning Studies conferred by a university economics department, with over twenty five years' experience of spatial planning and project development, I feel reasonably well equipped to explore this important difference. So let me start with land use planning.
In fact, land use planning in the UK - outside Scotland where its strategic importance is still acknowledged - has been largely abandoned in favour of regional spatial strategies (RSS) and local development frameworks. The RSS are also now in the process of abolition. Incidentally, I support the retention of regional planning albeit with a lighter touch. Meanwhile, council-led local planning has become an essentially administrative process, with the hard skills once identified with the land use planner's profession, including architecture, urban design and engineering, largely outsourced to other agencies and, particularly, consultants.
This erosion of planning by successive governments has led to the increasing inability of local plans to fulfil their most important purpose: to direct development to the most appropriate locations relative to its type and scale whilst having regard to existing infrastructure, or probable investment therein, and comprehensive environmental impact assessments. Such direction is, I would argue, especially important for energy planning, and it is the weakness of the spatial planning system and associated environmental regulation in England, most particularly, which has acted to inhibit the development of renewable energy.
To turn now to centralised economic and energy planning, most ordinary people recognise that, notwithstanding the British - or rather English - political penchant for free market rhetoric over the past thirty or so years, this actually disguises an equally strong commitment to central government control, regardless of which parties happen to be in power. The case of nuclear power illustrates this situation very well, for there would be no development of new capacity if this were left to market forces alone. The recent history of nuclear development in the United States shows that strong government financial support is essential.
However, it is not my intention here to consider the pros and cons of different forms of power generation, but to argue that a spatial plan, ideally encompassing the whole of the British Isles and international connectivity, is needed. By such connectivity, I mean a plan which recognises current supply lines and potential future developments, notably international energy super grids. Such a plan would, of course, have to recognise the vital principle of subsidiarity in order to encourage regional and local ingenuity. Similarly, a coherent and long term national regulatory and incentives-based framework would need to be in place to support appropriate investment.
Is an integrated - economic and spatial - planning scenario for energy generation and supply in Britain of the kind I have described a realistic possibility? Perhaps a better question is: can the UK for reasons of economic security as well as environmental sustainability afford not to take this approach? For the "business as usual scenario", where our national politics of power are essentially left to the power politics of day, is no longer viable in an increasingly internationalised energy market where the forces in operation may not always espouse freedom.
Monday, October 08, 2012
RUSSIFICATION OF EUROPE'S ENERGY POLICY
Whilst the British media celebrated Russian President Vladimir Putin's sixtieth birthday at the weekend - Mr Putin is, after all, something of a celebrity - Russia has today opened a second gas pipeline across the Baltic Sea to Germany. An earlier pipeline began operation last year. Mr Putin announced that the new pipeline would `make a significant contribution to the economic development of our countries and the entire European continent".
Europe obtains some two-fifths of its natural gas supplies from Russia, and the continent's energy demand for gas is forecast to grow some forty percent by 2035. The increasing energy dependence of Europe on Russian gas amounts to the Russification of the region's energy policy, a development no doubt cause for celebration on Mr Putin's birthday.
The increasingly close relationship between Russia and Germany is also noteworthy. In German Chancellor Angela Merkel Vladimir Putin has, to reverse Mrs Thatcher's description of former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, found a woman he can do business with. Mrs Merkel, does after all, share a Soviet hinterland with Mr Putin, who was himself posted to East Germany by the KGB before the collapse of communism.
So as the Conservative Party faithful gather in Birmingham, Prime Minister David Cameron, a onetime recruitment target for the KGB during his student gap year according to his own admission, might want to turn his attention eastwards to Europe. For it is very important that those "Little Englanders" amongst the Tories - the gods bless their souls! - are not permitted to distract the Government's attention from important European questions, including Russification of energy policy.
Europe obtains some two-fifths of its natural gas supplies from Russia, and the continent's energy demand for gas is forecast to grow some forty percent by 2035. The increasing energy dependence of Europe on Russian gas amounts to the Russification of the region's energy policy, a development no doubt cause for celebration on Mr Putin's birthday.
The increasingly close relationship between Russia and Germany is also noteworthy. In German Chancellor Angela Merkel Vladimir Putin has, to reverse Mrs Thatcher's description of former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, found a woman he can do business with. Mrs Merkel, does after all, share a Soviet hinterland with Mr Putin, who was himself posted to East Germany by the KGB before the collapse of communism.
So as the Conservative Party faithful gather in Birmingham, Prime Minister David Cameron, a onetime recruitment target for the KGB during his student gap year according to his own admission, might want to turn his attention eastwards to Europe. For it is very important that those "Little Englanders" amongst the Tories - the gods bless their souls! - are not permitted to distract the Government's attention from important European questions, including Russification of energy policy.
Saturday, October 06, 2012
SOME REFLECTIONS ON THE TURNER PRIZE
As the 2012 Turner Prize show of shortlisted artists opens at Tate Britain this week, I feel it's time to reflect on the role of art in society. So here's my mini-manifesto. Visual art should ideally:
One of my regrets in middle age is that I failed to submit a spoof entry for the Turner Prize, although I did consider applying to the former Channel 4's series "Faking It" as a conceptual artist.
My problem is not so much with the competition itself as the industry which it has spawned, and the pretentious language used by some artists and those who write about them. In short, the Turner Prize has contributed to the commodification of art and its spiritual devaluation.
- be aesthetically pleasing
- challenge our perception
- have a spiritual value
One of my regrets in middle age is that I failed to submit a spoof entry for the Turner Prize, although I did consider applying to the former Channel 4's series "Faking It" as a conceptual artist.
My problem is not so much with the competition itself as the industry which it has spawned, and the pretentious language used by some artists and those who write about them. In short, the Turner Prize has contributed to the commodification of art and its spiritual devaluation.
Friday, October 05, 2012
SHADES OF GREY AND PEOPLE OVER FIFTY
The launch this week of a Labour Party commission, headed by Miriam O'Reilly and Arlene Phillips, into employment age discrimination against women over fifty comes as BBC news presented Fiona Bruce admits to dying her hair to keep her job. Both O'Reilly and Phillips were cast off by the Corporation from their roles in Country File and Strictly Come Dancing in favour of younger women.
As a woman just turned fifty and with her natural hair colour, including some grey, this is an issue close to my heart. However, the Labour Party's apparent championing of it will not make me renew my membership, lapsed since one Tony Blair became leader in the mid-1990s, because Britain's cult of youth, or rather of a youthful appearance, began with New Labour and the so-called Blair Babes.
For although John Major was only a youthful forty seven when he took up prime ministerial office in 1990, he was already grey and - although we did not know this until much later - the erstwhile possessor of a love life with fellow MP Edwina Currie probably closer to Fifty Shades of Grey than anyone in New Labour, with the possible exception of David Blunkett, would be capable of delivering.
Returning to discrimination against mature women the workplace, the issue, it seems to me, is not so much about age as appearance; although there are those for whom an older person's knowledge and experience are unattractive. However, discrimination on grounds of appearance is not confined to older women or men, and beautiful people may be discriminated against as well as plainer types.
The key issue - and apparent reason why BBC Country File sidelined Miriam O'Reilly, but retained the more mature John Craven - is that one's face fits, not just physically (the requirements of high definition television, for instance), but also, and even more importantly in most cases, metaphorically. Yes, it is fitting in with a younger group of colleagues that employers think older women will not do.
This apparent problem is often ascribed to a belief that older and younger women do not "get on" as well as men of different ages, and tend to replicate domestic roles in the workplace. The female menopause is also cited as an actual or potential risk to workplace equilibrium, although this seems to be able to accommodate the male's midlife changes.
Nevertheless, many men over fifty have been known to experience turbulent mood swings, and possibly even hot flushes exacerbated by spicy food, when challenged by younger, and perhaps more virile colleagues, including uniformed police officers. This fact may throw some light on the case of Andrew Mitchell (see below), and remind us all that, in life, there are indeed many shades of grey.
As a woman just turned fifty and with her natural hair colour, including some grey, this is an issue close to my heart. However, the Labour Party's apparent championing of it will not make me renew my membership, lapsed since one Tony Blair became leader in the mid-1990s, because Britain's cult of youth, or rather of a youthful appearance, began with New Labour and the so-called Blair Babes.
For although John Major was only a youthful forty seven when he took up prime ministerial office in 1990, he was already grey and - although we did not know this until much later - the erstwhile possessor of a love life with fellow MP Edwina Currie probably closer to Fifty Shades of Grey than anyone in New Labour, with the possible exception of David Blunkett, would be capable of delivering.
Returning to discrimination against mature women the workplace, the issue, it seems to me, is not so much about age as appearance; although there are those for whom an older person's knowledge and experience are unattractive. However, discrimination on grounds of appearance is not confined to older women or men, and beautiful people may be discriminated against as well as plainer types.
The key issue - and apparent reason why BBC Country File sidelined Miriam O'Reilly, but retained the more mature John Craven - is that one's face fits, not just physically (the requirements of high definition television, for instance), but also, and even more importantly in most cases, metaphorically. Yes, it is fitting in with a younger group of colleagues that employers think older women will not do.
This apparent problem is often ascribed to a belief that older and younger women do not "get on" as well as men of different ages, and tend to replicate domestic roles in the workplace. The female menopause is also cited as an actual or potential risk to workplace equilibrium, although this seems to be able to accommodate the male's midlife changes.
Nevertheless, many men over fifty have been known to experience turbulent mood swings, and possibly even hot flushes exacerbated by spicy food, when challenged by younger, and perhaps more virile colleagues, including uniformed police officers. This fact may throw some light on the case of Andrew Mitchell (see below), and remind us all that, in life, there are indeed many shades of grey.
Thursday, October 04, 2012
E-PANTO?: OLD BILL AND BIG SWINGING DICK
Mulling over some plebeian baked beans, laced with chili sauce, I had to acknowledge that my earlier post had all the right ingredients for a new E-Pantomime, as the following synopsis demonstrates:
The Government Chief Whip, erstwhile patron of international development and friend of the global poor - rather like the Big Clunking Fist in fact - has his lunch-time curry spiked by a Tory anarchist, and later that day transforms into "Big Swinging Dick". Asked to use the pedestrian gate, the bicycling minister insults some Downing Street police officers, who then log his deprecations and their account of the incident appears on the front page of a national tabloid.
In the meantime, the minister has resumed his normal persona and has little or no re-collection of the previous day's outburst, but apologises anyway. However, this is not the end of the matter. The shadow High Sheriff of England, the Honorable Mrs Cooper-Balls, is determined to have the minister publicly humiliated for using classist language in the presence of serving police officers. Now gentlemen of both the tabloid and broadsheet press smell blood and a hunt for BSD ensues.
The story then takes on a life of its own as the narrative of "Old Bill and Big Swinging Dick", in which various honest plods take on the dastardly member until order is restored by the civil service.
The Government Chief Whip, erstwhile patron of international development and friend of the global poor - rather like the Big Clunking Fist in fact - has his lunch-time curry spiked by a Tory anarchist, and later that day transforms into "Big Swinging Dick". Asked to use the pedestrian gate, the bicycling minister insults some Downing Street police officers, who then log his deprecations and their account of the incident appears on the front page of a national tabloid.
In the meantime, the minister has resumed his normal persona and has little or no re-collection of the previous day's outburst, but apologises anyway. However, this is not the end of the matter. The shadow High Sheriff of England, the Honorable Mrs Cooper-Balls, is determined to have the minister publicly humiliated for using classist language in the presence of serving police officers. Now gentlemen of both the tabloid and broadsheet press smell blood and a hunt for BSD ensues.
The story then takes on a life of its own as the narrative of "Old Bill and Big Swinging Dick", in which various honest plods take on the dastardly member until order is restored by the civil service.
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