LOWERING THE VOLUME OF FUTURE BABBLE

I am currently reading "Future Babble" by Dan Gardner, and note the introductory chapter's reference to an IMF economist's view that his profession's "record of failure to predict recessions in virtually unblemished".

Although "Future Babble" seems to set up a dichotomy, rather than a discourse, between technological optimists and ecological pessimists, Gardner's perspicacity cannot be faulted.

The case of Robert Schiller, the Yale economist who wrote "Irrational Exuberance" in 2000, and revised this in 2005, is used by Gardner to illustrate a particular problem with professional experts. Although Schiller was one of the few economists to predict the global financial disaster of 2008, in his capacity as an adviser to a US bank he "felt the need to use restraint". The consensus at the bank was that there was no housing bubble in the US, a position Schiller's conceded because: "Deviating too far from consensus leaves one feeling potentially ostracised from the group, with the risk that one may be terminated".

"Groupthink", as Gardner argues, "is very much a disease that can strike experts. In fact, psychologist Irving Janis coined the term "groupthink" to describe expert behaviour...."

My own strategy for dealing with expert and wider non-expert "future babble", and indeed group think, is to treat these as background noise: something to be acknowledged, ignored and taken into account as appropriate.

ESSENTIAL CONDITIONS FOR THE BIG SOCIETY

"There has got to be a new era of transparency, accountability and openness." Eric Pickles

Like most people, I'm still not sure what "The Big Society" is all about, although I like this quote from the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government obtained from an Insight Public Affairs briefing on the subject.

THE MOTHER OF ALL MURDOCHS' ADVICE

Perhaps the most salutary lesson to emerge from the furore surrounding Murdoch Media, currently engulfing the attentions of the British political upper classes, is the fact that Rupert's mother Dame Elisabeth, who is 102, has over the years strongly advised him against unwarranted journalistic invasions of privacy. Would that son had taken mother's advice!

THE OLD WOMAN MOUNTAIN DREAMING

Realising that my previous posts may have offended fans of the Australian Thorny Devil, I decided to consult the treasure trove of Aboriginal myth, medicine and magic this morning - having previously outed myself as "The Witch of Worcester" - and found this gem on the Aboriginal Art Store website:

"The Old Woman Mountain Dreaming (or Thorny Devil Lizard) is a major Dreaming story from this region (called Utopia!*) and features prominently in several art works. This creation story tells of the journey of the female ancestors as they travelled across country pinpointing relevant significant sites essential for survival. In the artworks these references are depicted as a symbolic line of trees indicating the location of underground water, the seasonal cycle and location of various native food or the sites of waterholes."

More on Utopia Aboriginal Art can be found @ http://www.aboriginalartstore.com.au/

Applying the wisdom of Aboriginal female ancestors to current events in Britain, I would suggest that Mrs Rebekah Brooks, along with many others, might benefit from some time in the wilderness, having spent a few years there myself I can't recommend it enough!

Also drawing a personal message from "The Old Woman Mountain Dreaming", I feel recalled to attend to sustainable planning issues, and the protection of "significant sites essential for survival" around Worcester and Environs (and elsewhere) from speculative development. Once again the importance of "Water Issues" can't be underestimated.

The Witch of Worcester can be found @ http://witchofworcester.wordpress.com/

* My brackets

MEDIA ALTERNATIVES TO MOLOCH HORRIBUS*

Yesterday I touched upon the importance of aims and objectives in decision-making, and today want to highlight the issue of alternative scenarios, options for achieving these and their possible downsides. In the case of British press and broadcasting, for instance, whilst foreign investment may desirable, one would not wish the Chinese state media to take a controlling stake in BSkyB.

*The Australian Thorny Devil at the helm of Murdoch Media.
Image: Wikipedia Media Commons

THE IMPORTANCE OF AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Assisting clients with clarification of their aims and objectives, and identifying the best means of achieving these, including different courses of action and the effects of these upon stakeholders, represent some of the most important tasks of the management consultant.

My advice to British politicians would be to remember these tasks in their dealings with Murdoch Media. Some may wish to oust the group from UK press and broadcasting, but I doubt this is the consensus view, which is probably represented in "better the devil you know".

MURDOCH MEDIA: A VERY BRITISH COUP?

Whilst Ed Miliband has emerged as the leader of today's parliamentary coup intended to rout Murdoch Media's takeover of BSkyB, I'm still left wondering whether this remains a phony war.

The "leader image" shows an Australian Thorny Devil or Moloch Horridus.

THE WEAKNESS OF WESTERN CURRENCIES

The "blame game" around the unfolding tale of corruption and malpractice at UK News International - just remember that the rot set in under New Labour and Ken Livingstone's mayoral responsibilities for the Metropolitan Police - provides an analogous side-show to the bigger, and largely untold, story concerning the current weakness of western currencies.

It is as if the so-called "Decline of the West" has now been consciously accepted and the only way is down, or downunder, East or Essex.

So politicians in the United States, along with those in the UK, look forward to a weakening of the Euro, because this improves the prospects of their own weak currencies. Indeed, much of the anti-Euro sentiment in the North American and British media derives from this express wish.

Meanwhile, supporters of the Euro within and outside the Eurozone have worked together to maintain the value of the currency, notwithstanding the media assault.

Perhaps we just need a "New Media"in the West. I certainly wouldn't give a "ForEx" for much of the present one, even the apparently respectable institutions behave little better than the rent boys and girls of political and corporate sentiment alot of the time.

GEORGE OSBORNE AND THE POUND SHOP

My last post concluded with an expression of concern about the UK becoming the economic equivalent of a "Pound Shop", and I shall probe this comparison further today, but first some reference must be made to those "Events", dear boys and girls.

I refer, of course, to "News of the World's End" - and having purchased yesterday's final edition shall allude to this further -together with the re-entry of the "C-Word", or "Corruption", into the British political lexicon. Needless to say, some will feel that the four letter C-word may best describe some of the parties involved, but this blog won't devalue itself by resorting to such language.

It will, nevertheless, remind readers that it was George Osborne, as shadow chancellor, who recommended to David Cameron the appointment of Andy Coulson as his party's head of communications, following the departure of the latter from the News of the World. Readers should also be aware that Mr Osborne's judgement in the choice of some of his friends is no better, and possibly worse, than that of the Prime Minister. The role of a former Eton friend in the 2008 "Yachtgate Affair" is a case in point.

Indeed, I would strongly caution both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer against the appointment of people they might think of as friends to positions of power, and opt instead for relationships with colleagues of the kind described by former Conservative deputy prime minister Lord Heseltine in BBC Radio 4's "Meeting Myself Coming Back" series.

Returning to the currency issue, yesterday's News of the World did in fact carry a rather good article on the financial advantages of holidaying in Blackpool this Summer: something the Osborne family might like to consider. The particular reason for Blackpool being an increasing destination of choice is the weakness of the pound, particularly against the Euro.

The weakness of the pound is, however, very much a double-edged sword where the British economy is concerned because of our heavy reliance upon imports. Even manufacturing, widely regarded as being a beneficiary of the present situation, is disadvantaged because the raw materials and components of production are increasingly purchased abroad.

Moreover, the situation is made worse because much of Britain's manufacturing amounts to little more than assembly, something to which the Chancellor and Business Secretary Vince Cable should attend more. In effect, much of the UK is now the branch office/plant economy once used to describe the fate of the West Midlands.

The response of Mr Osborne and his colleagues to "re-balancing the economy" seems to consist mainly of policies to re-stimulate the construction sector, albeit that funding for projects - such as some grants made through the Regional Growth Fund (of which Lord Heseltine is Chairman) - is dressed up as support for manufacturing. The identification of "growth" with the development of greenfield sites is also reminiscent of planning policy during the Thatcher governments.

In short, much of the Coalition's efforts to date on economic policy hark back to the major regional infrastructure and construction programmes of the second half of the twentieth century. These palpably failed to support endogenous productive enterprise, and ultimately led to the retreat from these activities which characterised the New Labour regime in the first decade of the present millennium.

Instead, the Coalition should be focused on the creation of an added-value economy with a currency which reflects this. The nearest approximation to this economic state of affairs is Germany, and, notwithstanding the very real problems of the Eurozone, the relative strength of the Euro compared to UK Sterling reflects this situation. As noted in an earlier post, the Euro also has the advantage of its reserve currency status.

So what should the Chancellor of the Exchequer do about the Great British "Pound Shop"? Government policy should recognise that whilst bargain basements do have a role, these do not provide a model for sustainable economic development, as evidenced in any UK high street. The Chancellor must, therefore, act against practices within the financial sector which are currently undermining the value of UK plc, at the cost of making London less attractive to certain types of speculator.

Whether the present incumbent of Number 11 is up to this task is the question. I still favour "Big Beast" Ken Clarke for the role of chancellor. The sadly disgraced David Laws might have been up to the job, but probably not (again sadly) Vince Cable, for reasons I shall almost certainly cover in a future post. Ironically, however, failure on the current Chancellor's part could render British membership of the Euro a real option.

POLITICS: THESE BOYS & GIRLS WORRY ME

Reflecting recently on the dangers to British parliamentarians of foreign holidays, I was drawn to a blog by George Warner in the Telegraph concerning the "Yachtgate Affair" of 2008 which included the refrain "that boy Osborne worries me".

The sight of our boyish Chancellor looking bemused on the Government's front benches as "News of the World's End" unfolded yesterday was a strong reminder that the politics of fatal distraction remain as much a clear and present danger as ever.

For whatever Andy Coulson's misdemeanors, it must be remembered that, unlike his New Labour predecessor and another onetime tabloid editor, David Cameron's former head of communications did not falsify documents which played a key role in the run up to the Iraq war.

Nevertheless, Coulson's appointment was clearly a misjudgement on the part of our Prime Minister, of the kind which British politics has been riddled for the past ten years or so and from which shows few signs of recovery.

A recent article in the Telegraph by the Chic-Lit author Louise Bagshawe, who as a Conservative MP now uses her new married name of Mensch, illustrates why the generation of MPs who have come to power since 2000 are prone to such misjudgements.

The subject of the Bagshawe-Mensch article is former New Labour minister, and wife of shadow chancellor Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper, for whom the lady author - who was for a time a member of the New Labour Party - seems to have developed a crush.

These same sex crushes, often amongst married people, seem to characterise relationships amongst the political and media classes, compromising professional judgements and contributing to Britain's recent poor record of government.

They are, in my view, a particular shortcoming of people who attend same sex private schools, although by no means the exclusive preserve of such institutions. Vain men and women of the kind attracted to careers in politics and the media are most prone to such crushes.

Therefore, I would especially caution "Geogeous George" Osborne in his choice of advisors, for the clear and present danger in my view is UK plc becoming the economic equivalent of a "Pound Shop" if he doesn't attend to attend to issues currently underlying the weakness of Sterling.

These boys and girls worry me.

POST-FEMINIST MANAGEMENT PERSPECTIVE

Like most women, I want to see my gender better represented in positions of power. However, I'm not convinced that women make better or more progressive managers than men. The case of Murdoch media moll Rebekah Brooks (nee Wade) is a classic example of female management providing a cover for practices even most hardened male hacks would blench at. Women can be just as unethical, ruthless and unenlightened as men, so whilst supporting the IMF's appointment of Madame Lagarde, I disagree with her that a "Lehman Sisters" might have averted the banking crisis.

COMETH THE HOUR, COMETH THE WOMAN

News that Gina Reinhart, heiress to an Australian mining empire, is likely to become the world's richest person - with a personal net worth estimated at $100 billion - comes as Christine Lagarde is made executive head of the International Monetary Fund.

The latter appointment has noticeably bought complaints from some male economists, as Lagarde was an international lawyer before taking up her previous position as French finance minister.

However, Reinhart's potential replacement of Microsoft's Bill Gates (or the founder of IKEA according to some reports) as the wealthiest person on the planet does not seem to have raised many eyebrows.

What it does reflect is the continuing importance of natural assets and resources - coal and iron in this case - to economic development, something the male-dominated economics profession has failed to adequately acknowledge in recent years.

Indeed their frequent inability to see elephants in the room is one very good reason for the IMF to appoint a non-economist as its new head, although Madame Lagarde should remember not to forget her spectacles (as she did at her first meeting as a member of the French government).

PUTTING THE POLITICAL BACK INTO ECONOMY

The apparent return of "Greek Riot Dog Kanellos" to the political scene co-incides with the latest crisis in that country's economy. With the conditions of Greece's earlier bailout proving too onerous, the European sovereign debt problem has come to the fore yet again and with it questions over the sustainability of the Euro. However, the Euro will survive, whatever the fate of the Greeks, because politics and economics are inextricably linked. Germany will continue to back the Euro, to which Chancellor Angela Merkel only yesterday ascribed the renaissance of her country's economy. In addition, the Euro has strong support amongst countries outside Europe such as Russia, who want a reserve currency alternative to the United States Dollar.

As a Eurosceptic nation, this wider significance of the Euro is not generally reflected in the British media. UK Sterling is, after all, the world's third largest reserve country, with the Euro in second place. There are many here no doubt who would like this situation reversed, and media coverage of the European political economy tends to reflect this. My observation, incidentally, is not intended to support the case for Britain joining the Euro, which I accept is unforeseeable at the present time. What I do want is much better and more balanced coverage of Eurozone issues over here. BBC Trust Chairman, Lord Patten please take note.

For if one is to believe its media, Britain is a nation increasingly obsessed with money, sex and, or so it seems, death, but rather less interested in religion, science and technology. Ideology, however, does not seem to register on the radar of the national psyche. This is a serious problem because politics and economics are not just about sex and money, and they are certainly not a science. Yet notwithstanding our apparent reluctance to recognise the role of ideologies, these nevertheless exert an imperceptible control on issues which the British regard as important, and thus need to be "outed" rather more than the dalliances of our politicians.

As I noted near the beginning of this blog in 2006, the international theatre director Peter Hall has observed that sex is used to divert attention away from politics in Britain. A new website called http://www.sexymp.co.uk/ reflects this very well. It has, therefore, occurred to me that a survey of the open ideological affiliations, as well as more covert sympathies, of Members of Parliament and the House of Lords is called for at the present time. Casting around for a potential sponsor for such a survey, august media institutions like the Financial Times and Economist Group spring to mind, but perhaps it is rather to some foreign media organisation that I should look.

BBC Analysis: Mis-Selling of Financial Services

Juxtaposition of the repeated BBC radio 4's Analysis with the second airing of Money Box yesterday evening created an opportunity for some interesting reflection, but before giving this I want to tell a short cautionary tale.

In the early 1990s, I worked for a professional services firm in a tallish office building opposite the Old Bailey. The young star economist of my group, which occupied an upper floor of the building, came in one weekend to dabble with his computer model. Feeling that his brain was in need of increased oxygenation, he endeavoured to open a non-opening window with some force, very nearly defenestrating himself and causing a large pane of glass to crash to the ground in many shards.

This experience, combined with the property bust (which followed a boom) and international recession of the same era, taught me that a crash might accompany anything to do with economists and their supposedly scientific discipline.

Fast forward to yesterday evening, and my second hearing of BBC Radio 4's Analysis - yes, I felt compelled to listen to this programme twice - began to ring internal alarm bells, as Janan Ganesh of The Economist made some rather astounding statements.

First of all, words to the effect of "four years on from the first intimations of the great crash" were used. Excuse me, Mr Ganesh, but many people had "intimations" of a bubble likely to burst well before 2007. Then there was reference to economic recessions arising from problems in financial services being less severe than those linked to manufacturing: this "thesis" being used by Mr Ganesh to caution the present Government against being too zealous in re-balancing the economy away from the banking sector.

In short, my response to this "analysis" was very similar to the BBC's own advisers on hearing the mis-selling of financial products to under-cover customers by the staff of major banks, as reported in the pre-ceding Money Box programme.

THE PHONEY WAR FOR MIDDLE ENGLAND

"All pigs are equal, but some pigs are more equal than others"

This doodle of a spinning pig was supposedly drawn by shadow chancellor Ed Balls during a plot to purge New Labour of Tony Blair's premiership in favour of a government led by Comrade Brown. The rest, as they say, is history.

Or it would be had today's Telegraph newspaper not chosen to remind its readers of those dark days, and thereby create a remarkable spin amongst certain sections of the chattering classes, of a kind the Balls doodle might well symbolise.

So why should Telegraph readers be interested in this old story? The answer lies in a politically modified animal which I shall call the New Labour Conservative. This creature, it should be emphasised, is not Red Tory or Blue Labour, but represents an equally important political constituency in Middle England.

The New Labour Conservative is typically a household which identifies itself as professional, and where one partner works in the public sector. This aspirational social unit was championed during the "Christian democracy" of Tony Blair's government, but wasn't so sure about Gordon Brown, particularly when the economy went pear-shaped.

However, neither has the Coalition's deficit reduction programme and proposed changes to public services gone down well with the New Labour Conservative. Incidentally, this politically modified animal includes a good many Lib-Dem (and Tory) councillors who don't like the downsizing of their fiefdoms, anymore than Liverpool Trots liked Neil Kinnock calling the shots.

However, the fact remains that New Labour created a Britain - and an aspirational Middle England in its own image - with a non-viable model of political economy. As politicians of the left, right and centre know very well, only radical structural transformation can re-create a sustainable future. The important issues in this tectonic shift, I would suggest, are the environment and a re-ordering of social well-being, as I'm sure Dr Rowan Williams would agree.

INDIA AND THE GODS OF BIG THINGS

It was something of a curry night on BBC Radio yesterday with a very interesting programme on "blogging against bribery" at 8pm on 4, and later a Night Waves interview with Arundhati Roy and Siddhartha Deb on their new books. Amitav Ghosh is on 3's Night Waves this evening.

It is testimony to the great challenges of contemporary India that the country has created some of the best English language writing of the present time, leading to an obvious comparison with Victorian literature.

Ghosh has chosen the early Victorian period for his Ibis Trilogy, the second novel of which, River of Smoke, has just been published. Speaking of the first volume, Sea of Poppies, a few years ago, Ghosh was asked to explain the book's underlying sense of optimism, notwithstanding the dire circumstances of its story. Ghosh responded to the effect that people facing great challenges in their daily lives often have a remarkable sense of hope.

Since her success with The God of Small Things, Arundhati Roy has relinquished fiction for writing about the immense social and environmental problems of modern India, and is now recognised around the world as one of the country's foremost critics of unsustainable development. In her latest book, Broken Republic, she tackles the pressures facing India's tribal peoples and their homelands, including forced eviction by government militia, and their recourse to assistance from Maoist guerrillas.

Roy's apparent support for Maoist groups drew some stern questioning from Nigh Waves host Rana Mitter, until Siddhartha Deb pointed out that a group of people interviewed for his book, The Beautiful and the Damned, who lived near a toxic waste site on the outskirts of Hyderabad, having exhausted all other options, also had to look to such groups for help.

All in all, the interview with Roy and Deb was red hot. A great shame that Mitter had to cut this short to cover items, which, although interesting, paled into insignificance compared to the earlier exchange.

MONKEY BUSINESS IN BRITISH POLITICS

This summer will see the opening in British cinemas of a prequel to "The Planet of the Apes" called "Rise of the Planet of the Apes", providing the back story to the primate plot which eventually led to their future superior species status.

As for monkey business in British politics, and particularly in local government, we should be grateful for the Tweeter called Mr Monkey for raising its profile. The Mail newspaper revealed on Saturday: one council in South Tyneside "may have an awful lot to hide".

This story obviously resonates with readers of the paper, and one commentator has urged the prime minister to act because "we are all in this together". The monkey business goes much deeper than local authorities, although these might be a good place to start.

For the business of government and public services is increasingly that of contract and asset management, usually involving close working with major private firms. Any one who has attempted to question such relationships will know how just how difficult this can be, and why resort to blogging may be the only real option available.

Corruption is to a significant extent a cultural blind-spot in British politics - personally, I regard MPs expenses as small beer - and many in government and public life will all but deny its existence on our home shores, preferring to expend energy in lambasting organisations like FIFA and foreigners in general by way of media distraction.

An alternative interpretation may be that our supposed ruling classes already live on a different planet to the rest of us.

Local Government - CRISIS? WHAT IS A CRISIS?

I'm surprised the BBC television news channel found time to cover any international affairs yesterday, as it seemed to have been transformed into a sports station, or rather a commercial football channel. So let me remind trust board members than many of us wish that FIFA, along with professional football in general, would disappear permanently up their large rear orifice. Having got this off my chest, I do feel that the FIFA president's question during yesterday's "very important" press conference -"not a bazaar" as he informed the media - is one which needs tackling.

So let me focus on Britain's local democratic deficit, and ask why so many major planning inquiries are held in football stadia. In the good old days, these events typically took place in city and town halls, although I attended one in the august surrounds of the Old Royal Military Academy at Woolwich (later redeveloped). The apparent closeness of the Planning Inspectorate and local authorities to commercial football, itself the source of some controversial development applications, is precisely the kind of professional relationship which raises concerns amongst those who suspect officials, if not of actual corruption, then of collusion with business interests.

The fact that most large councils have now entered the social media arena also raises important issues of accountability and, inevitably, funding, as highlighted in the case of South Tyneside Council and a Tweeter called Mr Monkey over the weekend. This English local authority has pursued Mr Monkey through the Californian legal system and gained access to his Twitter account, along with that of an independent councillor, all for less than US$100k (or was that £s Sterling ?) according to a council spokesman. That people should feel the need to resort to anonymous blogging to make claims against council officials indicates that if English local democracy, to quote FIFA president,is "not in crisis...we are in some difficulties".

SHARON SHOESMITH AND BABY PETER

Whilst this blog generally tries to steer clear of "children, schools and families", the case of Sharon Shoesmith is so important that, on this occasion, I feel the need to wade in.

Although usually unsympathetic to the highly-paid social bureaucrat, I do think that Ms Shoesmith became the victim of a political game of football between Gordon Brown and David Cameron in the final years of New Labour. There are important differences between accountability and media fuelled witch hunts of the kind to which Ms Shoesmith fell victim. Yesterday's court judgement has recognised this.

The cases of Sharon Shoesmith, the former head of education and social services in the London Borough of Haringey, and Baby Peter, the child neglected, abused, and finally killed by the adults who supposedly cared for him, raises a range of issues which need to be considered separately.

Firstly, the creation of a super-department for children, schools and families presided over by Ed Balls was a mistake. Social care fits better with health than education, and it was ultimately the medical profession that failed Baby Peter, whose serious injuries were left undiagnosed, rather than his social workers.

Secondly, as secretary of state Balls was wrong to intervene personally in having Ms Shoesmith sacked. The failures of her council department in managing education and social services were, after all, partly a consequence of the flawed government re-organisation led by him.

Thirdly, the strong tendency under New Labour for power in public sector organisations to concentrate in the hands of a relatively small number of highly-paid officials has ultimately made effective day-to-day hands-on management virtually impossible. Much flatter and more accountable structures are required, with remuneration which reflects this.

Finally, the previous government adopted what can only be described as a naive approach to children, parenting and families, and it looks very much like the present administration will continue this. Whist Balls, Brown, and Cameron are all, I am sure, excellent parents, many people are not. It might well behove governments, therefore, to recognise this in the benefit system and actively discourage those likely to be unsuited to parenthood from having children.

HENRY KISSINGER ON CHINA THEN AND NOW

Rana Mitter's BBC Radio 3 Night Waves interview with former US Secretary of State Dr Kenry Kissinger was well worth tuning into, albeit that Mitter's questioning was rather loud and Kissinger's replies rather quiet.

The interview on China, also the name of a book which Kissinger has just had published on this subject, focused on the Mao Zedong years, although there were also some rather chilling comments on current US-China relations.

Asked by Mitter if he was an admirer of Mao Zedong, Kissinger responded that he admired the former Chinese leader's grasp of strategy, both at home and in international affairs, but deplored the oppression and genocides of Mao's regime.

However, although Mao is widely regarded as one of the architects of modern China, Kissinger said that he and his contemporaries in the early 1970s could not have imagined the magnitude of the country's transformation over the next twenty five years.

The interview sounded a cautionary note about the future of US-China relations, with references to Britain and Germany in the early twentieth century. Let's hope the current G8 Summit meeting in France keeps this in mind.