Saturday, March 01, 2014

CRIMEA - THE SPECTRE OF NIKITA KHRUSHCHEV

Image: www.pushkinpress.com
I have just finished reading "The Spectre of Alexander Wolf" by Gaito Gazdanov -  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaito_Gazdanov - a Russian emigre writer of Ossetian heritage: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ossetia The book deals with the subject of fate, and how an earlier event can unexpectedly determine the future.

So it is that the fate of Crimea - a gift of former Soviet President Khrushchev to the Ukraine - now seems bound up with that of its Russian benefactor.  The transfer of Crimea was framed as a goodwill gesture to mark the 300th anniversary of Ukraine's merger with tsarist Russia, although the actual politics were rather more complicated: http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/25/separatism_in_ukraine_blame_nikita_khrushchev_for_ukraine_s_newest_crisis.html

Recent events in the Ukraine may now lead to the gift's forcible return to Russian control, notwithstanding an "urgent diplomatic offensive" by Western governments: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10669850/William-Hague-demands-Russia-respect-Ukraines-territory-as-Kremlin-tightens-grip-on-Crimea.html

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

BRITAIN NEEDS NEW LAND USE PLANNING REGIME

UK Prime Minister with troops on recent floods tour of duty (Source: Number 10 Twitter account)

The UK Government's response to the flooding crisis followed a typical sequence: inadequate action (crisis, what crisis?), followed by that sinking feeling, panic and blame allocation, and, finally, a sort of belated event management exercise with the army called in to help out. Such criticism may seem unkind, but it should be remembered that since coming to power in 2010 Mr Cameron and his colleagues have conducted a ruthless offensive against the planning system: one of the key mechanisms for reducing the impact of extreme weather events associated with climate change.

In short, Britain needs more and not less planning, and in Southern England, most especially, a return to comprehensive and integrated land use management of the kind found in other densely populated countries like the Netherlands is required. I'm delighted that Mr Cameron has called upon Dutch engineers for advice in dealing with the current floods. Now he and his colleagues should ensure that the best environmental practice from North West Europe is adopted in the English planning system. If current ministers and civil servants are incapable of rising to this challenge, they should be replaced.

Friday, February 07, 2014

UK GOVERNMENT'S LITTLE LOCAL DIFFICULTIES

Image: flood warnings across southern Britain

David Cameron is a modern British leader - in his own words the "Heir to Blair" -  who likes big ideas and dislikes bad news. Like Blair, his government is filled with a monstrous regiment of yes-people, who eshew common sense policies in favour of those which appear to proffer personal advancement. It is no surprise, therefore, that Britain is currently beset by what "One Nation" - now the brand of Ed Miliband's Labour Party - Conservative Harold Macmillan called "little local difficulties."

Foremost of these is "Floodgate". Climate change is not official Conservative Party policy, and, alas, Mr Cameron, along with many others, now finds himself in the position of early medieval English (and Scandinavian) King Canute who famously "set his throne by the sea shore and commanded the tide to halt and not wet his feet and robes. Yet "continuing to rise as usual [the tide] dashed over his feet and legs without respect to his royal person. Then the king leapt backwards, saying: 'Let all men know how empty and worthless is the power of kings (and ill-founded government policies), for there is none worthy of the name, but He whom heaven, earth, and sea obey by eternal laws" according to chronicler Henry of Huntington  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cnut_the_Great#Ruler_of_the_waves

Then there is the prospect of a Disunited Kingdom, and according to the Guardian newspaper today our Olympian "Prime Minister David Cameron will use the scene of Team GB’s success at London 2012 as the backdrop for his warning against Scottish independence."All this, as Russian President Vladimir Putin opens the 2014 Winter Olympic Games in Sochi: an event which Mr Cameron will be not be attending. Nor will he attend to calls from Scottish leader Alex Salmond and his colleagues to engage in a debate north of the border. For in the great modern line of political actor-managers, namely Blair and Heir, Mr Cameron will never place himself in a position where he is likely to be upstaged. For whom "The Scottish Play" will prove unlucky is, of course, another little local difficulty.

Tuesday, January 07, 2014

NEW PARLIAMENT OF THE EUROPEAN PEOPLES

Awakening towards the end of 2013, I realised that a certain political correctness had afflicted me in recent months, repressing my spirits and satirical proclivities. To set me to rights, I was later visited by the spirit of the seasonal e-pantomine who advised me to set down the following synopsis.

The events of this tale occur at an unspecified time in the future. Former British prime minister Tony Blair and Lord Peter Mandelson have acquired a mysterious life-prolonging elixir and now co-habit the Palace of the Parliament http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palace_of_the_Parliament - in Bucharest. Formerly the seat of Romania's Soviet-era president Nicolae Ceaușescu, the world's largest civilian building now accommodates the eastern head quarters of the European Union, including a unified presidency that has taken over the role of EU Parliament supremo. To add to this, President Blair is also a cardinal of the Roman Catholic church with ambitions to de-secularise the European Project and create a new Holy Roman Empire. Fortunately, however, these aspirations are beyond the scope of this particular synopsis.

Readers are no doubt wondering how the events I have described came about, and the story is marvellously straightforward. Awakening one morning a British prime minister of the near future took it upon herself to transform the country's unsustainable welfare state and wider public sector. Her government went, somewhat like the Starship Enterprise, where no recent British administration had dared go before and dismissed vast swathes of the kleptocracy, including those on the payroll of the state media, which had grown obese at the public expense. In short, the nation's finances were radically over-hauled, along with the benefits system. The effects of this were nothing short of miraculous. Seeing their mistress and her comrades living within their means, the British public soon followed suit. Those unaccustomed to such a lifestyle started to migrate in vast numbers - a subject I shall deal with later - and the country assumed a state of good governance never before experienced in its history. In short, a London banker's word was his bond, and not someone else's.

Unfortunately whilst Albion was liberated from financial repression and the other ills of a nation living beyond its means, the so-called "New British Problem" was exported to other parts of Europe as the engine of the unreal economy, with its propensities for public maladministration, property speculation, booms and busts, and labour market distortions relentlessly moved eastwards. Soon the citizens of Eastern Europe were complaining of similar evils to those their British counterparts had once done, including mass migration by Western Europeans, particularly from over-crowded areas in Southern England, and accompanying benefits tourism. Meanwhile, a Campaign to Protect Rural Eastern Europe, or CPREE, was established amidst clamorous support for wholesale importation of the early 21st century British planning system.

At this point, a spiritually ascended cadre of enlightened European leaders, including Vaclav Havel http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V%C3%A1clav_Havel , took it upon themselves to instigate the second coming of Angela Merkel, who restored order and admitted Ukraine to the greater EU family.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

CO-OP DEBACLE: THE FIFTH LABOUR OF MILIBAND

In the good old days, financial scandals mostly happened to Labour whereas the Conservatives were prone to sexual improprieties. Enter the larger than life figure of former Reverend Paul Flowers, doyen of ethical banking, amongst other things, and a man able to bestride this traditional political divide like a colossus, whilst bringing the Methodist Church in to disrepute at the same time. Please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Flowers_%28banker%29 Naturally, British media of all political persuasions have enjoyed a field day and foreign journalists have flocked to our shores to share this spectacle of ethical deflowerment around the globe. Britain is widely regarded abroad as a nation of hypocrites, although most of our politicians and wider governing elite, including the prime minister, seem blissfully unaware of this for much of the time, and for many foreigners the Flowers debacle story will have shown our country in what they believe to be its true colours.

However, whilst the role of the former Reverend Flowers, assisted it has to be said by many others from ruling elite, in the downfall of the Co-operative Bank may be a national embarrassment - whilst some have liked his antics off-stage to the US crime drama "Breaking Bad" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breaking_Bad  - the real lessons of this particular episode in British public life must be learnt most of all by Labour Party Leader Ed Miliband. Mr Miliband inherited what can only be described as "The Labours of Hercules" when he took over leadership of the party in 2010 and the task of cleaning-up after Paul Flowers, as well as other notables like Ed Balls, may be likened to "the Fifth Labour" or the cleansing of the Augean stables - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augeas  This is a chance for the Leader of the Opposition to demonstrate that he can rid himself of the legacy of financial incompetence inherited from the Blair-Brown Labour governments by appointing a new Treasury team. Failure to seize the opportunity could well spell an end to Mr Miliband's ambitions to be prime minister.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

HORSE MEAT: DAVID STARKEY ON PRINCESS ANNE

The Duchess of York and Sir David Starkey in The Tatler magazine

Let me preface this post by saying that I love horses and good satire in that order. I also rather like Sir David Starkey, have some respect for Princess Anne and no particular objection to the Duchess of York (of whom nor more shall be written here). Nevertheless, it's fair to say that all three royals - Starkey, after all, is a historian of the monarchy - bring some controversy to the table.

So it was last week when Princess Anne used her speech at a World Horse Welfare event to suggest that eating horses may be good for their health. Now horse welfare is a complex subject which I do not propose to discuss in detail here, save to say that management of the equine population through appropriate breeding (including its prevention) practices is fundamental to this. End of life management is also a key issue and Princess Anne has done no harm in drawing attention to this. It should also be said that World Horse Welfare and similar charities do some excellent work in dealing with a range of problems facing equine populations in the UK, as well as in less developed countries where many animals labour and die in the most difficult of circumstances.

It was in to this uncomfortable discourse that Sir David Starkey too lept last week, when he suggested on the BBC Radio 4 panel show "Any Questions?" that Princess Anne looked like a horse - a comment that I'm sure the good lady would take as a compliment - and, with more than a touch of irony, that her advocacy of horse meat consumption revealed an unexpected "satirist".

Of course, it was Sir David and not Her Royal Highness who had spotted a satirical opportunity and chose to exploit this to the discomfiture of his more politically correct panel contestants and their audience. Likening Princess Ann's comments to Jonathan Swift's famous satire "A Modest Proposal for Preventing the Children of Poor People From Being a Burthen to Their Parents or Country, and for Making Them Beneficial to the Publick"*, Starkey went on to debunk her suggestion. In doing so, he returned the issue of horse meat consumption to a wider welfare context, thereby displaying some deft satirical footwork, which was unfortunately lost on his companions from across the politically correct spectrum.

Instead, Sir David Starkey brought ire upon himself from those who missed his ironic analogy and interpreted his comments as sexist. Although the subsequent media indignation was not so great as that sparked by Princess Anne herself, it was nonetheless significant, with the Huffington Post and its followers on Twitter getting into a considerable huff over the matter.

What all this reveals is that rational debate around challenging issues is increasingly difficult in an age of so-called emotional intelligence, and that it is no longer just North Americans who lack a sense of irony. With contemporary sensibilities so easily offended on these and a whole range of other matters it is hardly surprising that public discourse in Britain is in such a parlous state.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Modest_Proposal

Thursday, November 14, 2013

WHO'S HOLDING UP THE CHILCOT REPORT?

In some respects the circumstances leading to and surrounding the ongoing Chilcot Inquiry into the Iraq War are the opposite of those associated with more recent investigations into security leaks and media hacking. For at the heart of the Chilcot deliberations is not an explosive release of intelligence through illegitimate channels but rather an absence of information, currently reflected in the withholding, for reasons which are far from clear, of the inquiry's long overdue final report.

In a letter to the Prime Minister of 4th November this year, the official Chilcot website - www.iraqinquiry.org.uk - leads us to believe that the cause of the report's delay is due to the "Maxwellisation process". According to Wikipedia this "is a procedure in British governance where individuals due to be criticised in an official report are sent details of the criticism in advance and permitted to respond prior to publication. The process takes its name from the newspaper owner Robert Maxwell. In 1969, Maxwell was criticised in a report by the Department of Trade and Industry as "unfit to hold the stewardship of a public company". Maxwell took the matter to court where the DTI were said by the judge to have "virtually committed the business murder" of Maxwell. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maxwellisation

However, for those who might infer from the above reference that it is the deceased newspaper mogul who is responsible for holding up publication of the Chilcot report, I can say quite categorically that this is not the case. Instead blame has been cast upon Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Heywood - who has apparently vetoed publication of documents supporting the main report.

Sir Jeremy's apparent action has led to a flurry of media coverage and a former Labour Foreign Secretary Lord Owen has requested that the Lord Chancellor Chris Grayling - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Grayling - take charge of the matter. Meanwhile, the Independent newspaper claims in an exclusive today that it is the United States government who are now holding up publication of the long-awaited Chilcot report, although this has subsequently been denied by sources there.

Thursday, October 31, 2013

NATION IN GRIP OF NEW WITCH HYSTERIA

No doubt I'm not alone in starting to feel sorry for Rebekah Brooks; even if  I don't regard the latest cover of Private Eye to be in bad taste. The idea that the police should try to prevent its sale by a street vendor near the Old Bailey, where Mrs Brooks in currently on trial for phone hacking and corruption amongst other things, seems ridiculous. Nevertheless, I do think the nation has become gripped by a sort of witch hysteria, and what better day than Halloween to discuss this subject.

Mrs Brooks has wielded much power in her day, and many may be surprised that her secret consort was only former Downing Street spin doctor Andy Coulson and not the Prince of Darkness himself. However, her main crime now, it seems to me, is to be a non-establishment figure who has been dropped by former powerful friends as fast as a red hot poker. The lady herself, I suspect, may regret that her talents weren't sort out by the security services where her actions would have been rewarded.

Indeed, had Mrs Brooks made a career of espionage, supervising acts of surveillance and other nefarious activities, she may well have landed a peerage. Instead, in what has been described as "the trial of the century" she stands accused of offences which may have been common practice in the media, and, dare I suggest, other walks of public life. Like earlier witch hunters, the latest ones "protesteth too much", in the hope, no doubt, of hiding their own dark secrets.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

CHINESE NUCLEAR POWER?: NO THANKS!

 A recent BBC satirical panel show hosted by Rory Bremner asked the question: "Who owns Britain?" The answer was largely foreign companies and governments. One wonders then why there is so much fuss about European Union regulations. Personally, I would prefer the country was run from Brussels than Beijing. Moreover, if the name Angela Merkel was ever to appear on my ballot paper, I would certainly vote for her ahead of any serving British politician, even the Green MP Caroline Lucas.

For whilst the German Chancellor has managed to preside over her country's phasing out of nuclear power, following the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan, the British government has carried on regardless with the promotion of new reactors. We now learn that Chinese companies are to be allowed to hold a majority stake in these. Surely some mistake? When George Osborne and Boris Johnson descended on Beijing this week, many people thought their mission was to increase UK exports, following the example of Germany (who export more than they import from the Chinese). Instead, it seems that London is to become a Chinese off-shore zone and British energy policy - or that of England, Wales and Northern Ireland anyway - is to be run from Beijing.

What this demonstrates is that our Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Mayor of London are a pair of political opportunists par excellence. However, if anyone is looking to a change of UK government for national energy security and sustainability, there seems to be little prospect of this short of direct rule from Berlin. In the meantime, Britons may wish to ponder how they can prevent a couple of political Beau Gestes like Osborne and Johnson from ever becoming prime minister.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

OLD SCHOOL BOYS ON BEIJING CHARM OFFENSIVE

Some light entertainment from the Blond Bombshell and Gorgeous George (looking slightly embarrassed) whilst this blog reflects on more serious matters for its next post...

Friday, September 06, 2013

SYRIAN CRISIS : WHO'S PULLING WHOSE STRINGS?

Few would deny that Vladimir Putin is an ambiguous figure, or that the sale of Russian weapons to Syria is helping to fuel the crisis there. However, those arming the Syrian opposition, including Saudi Arabia, cannot be regarded as any more progressive than Russia. The emerging consensus, reflected in the UK Parliament's vote of last week, that the crisis requires multi-lateral action led by the United Nations was finely articulated by the UN's former Chief Weapons Inspector, Hans Blix, this morning on BBC Radio 4's Today Programme. Blix called into question former British prime minister Tony Blair's role as a "protagonist for intervention" in Syria, presumably in his capacity as Middle East Peace Envoy. I say "presumably" because it is never very clear whose interests Blair represents, other than his own. What is quite remarkable is that one with a record on the international scene arguably even more ambiguous than that of Mr Putin should still be treated so uncritically by the BBC and many others.

Thursday, September 05, 2013

FAT CAT PLAYS WITH OSBORNE & BALLS PUPPETS

As someone providing retirement care for a former working cat - chief pest controller at a farm business (sadly, the well-to-do owner did not provide her with a pension) - I just love this Gary Barker cartoon from The Times. Not usually a reader of the paper, I only discovered the sketch this morning whilst googling a story about the shadow chancellor being offered up by Labour for a large transfer fee to an unspecified foreign government in order to tackle the Party's financial deficit left by the withdrawal of trade union funding. I was so looking forward to Ed Balls disappearing off the scene, but, unfortunately, could not find any hard evidence of the scoop, although there may be another political caricature along these lines somewhere in today's press. However, Barker's "Smoke v Mirrors" cartoon encapsulates so well the shadow-boxing that takes place between Chancellor George Osborne and his Labour opposition Ed Balls around the subject of the British economy, that my disappointment is almost overcome.

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

WEF GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS INDEX 2013-14

The World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index 2013-14, published yesterday, has the following top 10 ranking:

1. Switzerland
2. Singapore
3. Finland
4. Germany
5. United States
6. Sweden
7. Hong Kong SAR
8. Netherlands
9. Japan
10. United Kingdom

Britain's position in the "Country Profile Highlights" is described thus:

"The United Kingdom (10th) rounds out the top 10, falling by two places in this year’s assessment. The country deteriorates slightly in several areas, most notably its macroeconomic environment and its financial markets. Overall, the United Kingdom benefits from clear strengths such as the efficiency of its labor market (5th), in sharp contrast to the rigidity of those of many other European countries. The country continues to have sophisticated (9th) and innovative (12th) businesses that are highly adept at harnessing the latest technologies for productivity improvements and operating in a very large market (it is ranked 6th for market size). The highly developed financial market also remains a strength overall, despite some weakening since last year. All these characteristics are important for spurring productivity enhancements. On the other hand, the country’s macroeconomic environment (115th, down from 85th two years ago) represents the greatest drag on its competitiveness, with a fiscal deficit above 8 percent in 2012, an increase of over 7 percentage points in public debt amounting to 90.3 percent of GDP in 2012 (136th), and a comparatively low national savings rate (10.8 percent of GDP in 2012, 122nd)."

The full report is available at http://reports.weforum.org/the-global-competitiveness-report-2013-2014

Monday, September 02, 2013

ANGELA MERKEL: GOVERNMENT IS FOR GROWN-UPS

One of the most annoying aspects of New Labour's zenith, fortunately now long passed, was its adulation by journalists who should have known better. Amongst the most fawning of these was the Financial Times senior editor Phillip Stephens, who wrote a biography of former prime minister Blair which has been summed up as "engaging and slickly presented but ultimately lacking in depth". Sounds very New Labour! Along with Blair, Stephens was sounding off last week about Britain's response to the crisis in Syria. Thankfully, we now live in a post-Blair world where parliamentary democracy might actually mean something.

I say "might" because we are not there yet. At the heart of New Labour was a fundamental confusion between politics and government, from which the present Coalition has not yet fully emerged. The ultimate author of this confusion was probably Peter Mandelson rather than Tony Blair. Indeed, Mandelson's autobiography, "The Third Man" published in 2010, is a very good book about politics, but weak on government. As a potted history of the Labour Party from the 1970s it is excellent. Similarly, if one enjoys chintzy insights into the private lives of politicians, the book is eminently readable. However, nowhere does New Labour emerge in it as a credible party of government, and "The Third Man" often comes across as an elegantly written teen diary, whose middle youth protagonists are endlessly pre-occupied with their group status and latest relationship.

To some extent New Labour was also a coalition in all but name, with Lord Mandelson as its king-maker. We now have a genuine Coalition of political expediency and weak government. This has more to do with the composition of the present coalition, rather than the weakness of coalition government per se. Ministerial positions have tended to be allocated to those most politically acceptable to their party leaders, rather than to those best equipped to make the government work for the nation. The same was also true of New Labour. The result is that some of the most able people are excluded from power and thus seek to undermine it. Who ever leads the next government, therefore, needs to look elsewhere for models of coalition leadership, for there is a good chance that the UK (or England, Wales and Northern Ireland) could have another one after the next election. 

If Blair was the defining European politician in the early years of the twentieth century, the German Chancellor Merkel has succeeded him in this role, but through substance rather than spin. The new generation of British politicians would do well to look to her style of leadership at home and abroad. Whilst this leadership is not without critics, particularly in those parts of the continent which have borne the brunt of European Union austerity measures to tackle the sovereign debt crisis, it has demonstrated the difference between politics and government. I was surprised that Angela Merkel hardly receives a mention in his autobiography, although Lord Mandelson was European Trade Commissioner when she came to power. His failure to recognise a woman who would emerge as one of the world's most powerful leaders, and a country whose economy was very much on the ascendant, clearly demonstrates that successful government requires grown-ups (and a mature media) to run it.

Friday, August 30, 2013

THE NEW BRITISH (AND US) ECONOMIC DISEASE

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_net_exports 

The British are fond of blaming Europe for regulations which hamper British competitiveness. Environmental legislation is an increasingly popular target for Conservative politicians, and even more so for the United Kingdom Independence Party. Similarly, I note that there are many in the United States who like to blame increasing regulation to protect the environment for the country's declining status as an exporter. In this context, the above link to Wikipedia's "list of countries by net exports", based on World Trade Organisation data, should help reframe the issue of national export competitiveness. For it is, in fact, the European Union which is the world's largest net exporter, due largely to the success of Germany which comes second, followed by China. The US and the UK, on the other hand, are the first and second largest net importers in the world. From a domestic perspective - I have not visited the US for many years - this status now constitutes a "British Disease" as much as the malady of that name in the 1970s. According to an article on the German www.zum.de website the original "British Disease refers to the low industrial productivity and frequent labor strifes that plagued Britain in the 1960s and 1970s".* This earlier malady required  transformational government, of the kind I do not yet see any prospect of in the UK, or the United States for that matter. This is a real problem because, I would argue, many of the transformations that have occurred since the 1970s now need to be reversed. 

 * Full article http://www.zum.de/whkmla/sp/changhyun/Thatcher70s2.html

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

SAVING MONEY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Some recent virtual exchanges have encouraged me to ponder the question: "What 's the point of environmentalism?"; and I shall, hopefully with some humour, post on this subject shortly. In the meantime, I'm going to suggest that one function of environmentalism, based upon my own experience, is to help governments, commercial businesses and individuals save money. Over the nearly 30 years I have been professionally involved with planning and environmental issues, the financial stakes have often been high. As a consequence, I have directly helped save the exchequer at least £0.5 billion, and probably prevented one major corporate bankruptcy. Whilst this may be relatively small beer in an age of "Big Banking" and public sector  profligacy (yes, I'm afraid it still goes on!), for most people and businesses (most being small) this is a very large sum of money.

The much greater sums of public money required for the proposed new HS2 high speed rail link are now increasingly being called in to question, with the Institute of Directors being the latest organisation to challenge the project's economic value and financial viability. However, such objections have been around since the proposal first surfaced under the previous government. That it did so without a full appraisal of possible alternative options for increasing rail capacity and improving the wider UK transport network is simply testimony to the flawed project management culture of many public institutions, in this case the Department for Transport. Again in my experience, environmental objections to major projects, or portfolios, have often served to highlight the weakness of the planning and appraisal process, which frequently overlooks a number of key issues. This has certainly happened with HS2, where those whose objections are primarily environmental have done a sterling job in highlighting other flaws associated with the proposal.

Friday, August 23, 2013

LABOUR'S NEW OUTBREAK OF COMMON SENSE?

I've enjoyed reading the early conspiracy thrillers of Eric Ambler over the summer. A twentieth century novelist of the sensible Left, Ambler writes in straightforward and unpretentious style which may be one of the reasons why his work is experiencing a comeback.

Ambler's novels are full of shysters - defined in the Wikipedia as "someone who acts in a disreputable, unethical, or unscrupulous way, especially in the practice of law, politics or business." This may be another reason why his novels speaks to the present age.

This brings me to the subject of the British Labour Party. The biggest challenges for Ed Miliband, I would suggest, will be to demonstrate that he also belongs to the sensible Left and that he can keep the shysters at bay. Labour also needs to encourage a straightforward and unpretentious public discourse, even if this has become alien to modern British political culture.

Although it is still early days, there seems to be some evidence that the party could renew itself along these lines. On the national scene, recent straight-talking on the proposed high speed rail link between London and the north of England, notwithstanding that Labour came up with this idea in the first place, is to be applauded.

Similarly in my local area of Worcester, a Labour-run coalition involving the Lib-Dems and Greens has started to make sensible-sounding proposals to re-prioritise urban regeneration and sustainable transport planning. Let's just hope the shysters don't derail these!

Returning to the novels of Eric Ambler, these have another lesson for the contemporary British Labour Party: the need for an objective national understanding of international politics, particularly those of Europe. I may be over-optimistic, but it strikes me that this is something which a Labour-led coalition government might just be able to deliver.

PS. Since my posting, a fellow participant in the recent Coursera Introduction to the Law of the EU The Law of the European Union: An Introduction | Coursera has provided the following link to an article in the New York Times about Britain's relationship with Europe: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/23/opinion/cohen-britains-brussels-syndrome.html?hp&_r=0

Sunday, July 07, 2013

THE EUROPEAN UNION IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

https://www.iversity.org/courses/the-european-union-in-global-governance

For anyone who would like a higher level of discourse on the future of the European Union than can currently be found in the UK, it might be worth checking out this Massive Open Online Course being run by the Berlin-based Iversity in the Autumn (see above link).

In the meantime, whilst both the UK Conservative and Labour Parties distracted themselves separately with tribal politics, The Economist magazine provided an interesting overview of the European economy:

European economy guide: Taking Europe's pulse | The Economist

Friday, July 05, 2013

SEX, DRUGS AND ROCK'N ROLL, OLD LADY?

The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street or Bank of England
(Image: Wikipedia)
When new Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney travelled by public transport (Well done Sir!) for his first day at work last Monday, the media depicted a "rock star banker" who, it had to be said, looked more than a little baggy under the eyes. However, it seems that Mr Carney was recovering not from a weekend of Sex, Drugs and Rock'n Roll at Glastonbury (for whose gathering this year he was probably a key demographic) but a weekend game of cricket organised by his new employer: at which he was only a spectator, incidentally.

Nevertheless, a working week that had began with Mr Carney looking somewhat downbeat ended with a stock market roll, when the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street agreed to maintain interest rates and quantitative easing (or pumping £375billion into the UK economy) for her new suitor. Still, relationships which begin on a high can still end on the rocks, and many will be wondering whether Mr Carney's rock star credentials carry the financial prudence of Mick Jagger, or a penchant for pleasing political mistresses of all parties. The fact that the new Bank of England Governor is sweetheart to both George Osborne and Ed Balls - I jest not! - may also set many wondering whether the addictive rhythm of boom and bust which has so dominated the British economy is indeed here to stay.

Monday, April 15, 2013

THE IRON LADIES: THATCHER AND MERKEL


Angela Merkel signs a book of condolence for Margaret Thatcher in Berlin (Getty Images)
It is not without irony, or perhaps some higher synchronicity, that British Prime Minister David Cameron's series of meetings with European leaders last week was disrupted by the death of Baroness Thatcher, and his visit to German Chancellor Angela Merkel had to be re-scheduled.

That Mr Cameron should find himself caught between the passing of former British prime minister Thatcher and the present leader of both a united Germany and, arguably, a Europe on the brink of greater union does, however, throw powerful light on modern political history. For whilst our Prime Minister may privately regard himself as "the Heir to Blair", it is surely the German Chancellor who is heiress of the original "Iron Lady's" drive for democratic liberation of the former Communist Europe where Angela Merkel spent her earlier life. That those liberated from Communist rule should now look to a strengthened European Union is, of course, an historical legacy which Baroness Thatcher did not anticipate, and a current political predicament for Britain and Mr Cameron.

Thursday, March 14, 2013

MOOCS GOOD FOR LITTLE ENGLANDER'S SOUL

For some years now I've felt more and more like a "Little Englander", or someone lacking a proper view from afar on our shores. This is partly the fault of the British media, notably the BBC, whose coverage of international news is often rather parochial. I'm therefore delighted to have discovered Coursera - www.coursera.org - who offer MOOCs, or Massive Open Online Courses, from some of the world's leading universities for free. Check them out!

Monday, November 26, 2012

CAMERON:CLOUD-CUCKOO-LAND OR LE CARRE?

As a novel for our time, I cannot recommend "A Small Town in Germany" by John le Carre strongly enough, although beware the edition with an introduction by Hari Kunzru as this in my view gives a poor entre to the narrative which follows.

The "small town" of the book's title is Bonn some forty years ago when Britain is conspiring to enter the European Community and Germany is regarded as our key ally. Threatening to jeopardise this special relationship is the supposed defection of a British embassy employee to the Eastern Block, together with the emergence of a new German leader intent on national re-unification.

The book's central theme is  British post-war international realpolitik at a time when the nation appears to be in terminal decline. Against this backdrop, there can be few better literary accounts of office politics, encapsulated in the UK's Bonn embassy, where a combination bureaucratic determinism and internal relationship management wrestle with external imperatives.

As I neared the novel's conclusion, it  occurred to me that our present government may be run along very similar lines, and that David Cameron could have found his literary equivalent in le Carre's Bonn embassy head honcho, Bradfield.

The arch political manager, Bradfield makes UK's  modus operandi clear to the British spy Turner, who has been despatched by the Foreign Office to find the potential defector:

"I'm a great believer in hypocrisy. It's the nearest we ever get to virtue. It's a statement of what we ought to be like.....I did not contract to serve a powerful nation, least of all a virtuous one. All power corrupts. The loss of power corrupts even more. We thank an American for that advice. It's quite true. We are a corrupt nation and we need all the help we can get."

The alternative interpretation of our current prime minister's pronouncements on a range of issues, including private sector investment in infrastructure, is that he has inherited "delusions of Gordon" , or that he dwells in Cloud-Cuckoo-Land.



Monday, October 29, 2012

"BRITAIN'S BIGGEST ECONOMIC DISADVANTAGE - OUR PROPERTY MARKET"

The following views are expressed by John Stepek in today's Money Morning, the daily online newsletter of Money Week magazine.

The Governor "and other members of the Bank of England have warned that the Bank isn’t going to rush into printing more money in November. And it’s not just because of the GDP bounce. It’s because he’s not sure it can solve Britain’s problems. 

King reckons – and I wouldn’t disagree – that the basic problem is the banks are still sitting on too much bad debt. The debt needs to be recognised and its value written down (or written off). The banks then need to be patched up. All that needs to happen before banks are willing to lend again.

“In the 1930s, faced with problems of sovereign and other debt similar to those of today, the pretence that debts could be repaid was maintained for far too long. We must not repeat that mistake.”

However, we are repeating it. The trouble is, the “significant writing down of asset values” that King refers to, would involve allowing house prices to fall. In Britain, house prices are the single most important economic indicator, politically speaking. When house prices are falling, governments lose elections.

It’s why public policy, the tax system, and central bank activities, are all horribly skewed towards propping up the property market. Yet with the banks aware that they are over-exposed to an over-valued sector of the economy, they aren’t going to be keen to lend more until the risk is no longer so high.

This unravelling could take a very long time to play out. We can’t expect rampant global growth to help us out. So the Bank of England will continue to have to walk the line between allowing ‘too much’ inflation to get into the system, and keeping rates low enough to cushion those with large debts. That leaves Britain vulnerable to nasty external shocks."

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

LEARNING TO DEAL WITH PARALLEL NARRATIVES

As the shadow side of the Jimmy Savile story continues to darken the corridors of power, two programmes on Radio 4 yesterday evening explored the issues of parallel narratives and accepted historical accounts.

The first programme about Peter Rachman discovered that the notorious slum landlord was not so much a manifestation of post-war laissez-faire conservatism as a precursor of the main social policies embraced by New Labour during the first decade of the twenty-first century.

Later, "Analysis" brought a discussion of Education Secretary Michael Gove's support for "Cultural Literacy", or instilling children and young people with a core set of facts to counter-balance the current emphasis on core skills and competences.

However, the case of Savile and, indeed, that of Rachman show that dominant narratives and their apparent facts may later be revealed as incomplete. Michael Gove himself recognises this problem and has suggested that a parallel narratives approach is sometimes needed.

Citing the 1950s Japanese film Rashomon, where four people have different recollections of the same event, the Education Secretary has suggested that this cultural format may throw light on the conflicting stories of former Chief Whip Andrew Mitchell and the Downing Street police officer.


Sunday, October 14, 2012

WHAT IS THE POINT OF THE BBC? HYSTERIA?

Last year Quentin Letts hosted a rather thought-provoking little series on BBC Radio 4 which asked: "What's the point of...?" various British institutions. The second series was something of a disappointment, possibly due to Corporation dumbing-down. An attempt by Radio 4's "The Moral Maze" to ask the question "what's the point of the BBC?" last week had some interesting contributions and responses from the panel, but the discussion was too short. The role of the BBC, along with other national British institutions, does, however, need to be properly considered, and as a contribution to the - albeit suppressed - national debate, this blog is starting its own series on UK institutions.

I will argue that "Hysteria" is playing an increasingly important role in these institutions, and a desire, conscious or unconscious, to create hysterical responses across the nation to a range of past, present and possible future events. The BBC's response to the crimes of Jimmy Savile is a case in point. Meanwhile, other important news has been sidelined by the Corporation, including its often rather hysterical coverage of events in Europe. This culture of "Institutional Hysteria", as I shall call it, possibly arises from our country having always had a rather incestuous elite, and one increasingly obsessed with money and celebrity. The fact that Savile personified these qualities no doubt goes a long way towards explaining why questions about him may have been raised but were not answered.


Friday, October 12, 2012

THE EUROPE 2020 COMPETITIVENESS REPORT

The World Economic Forum's Europe 2020 Competitiveness Report, published last June, makes for some interesting reading.

Planners and environmentalists should take heart in its advice to the UK, ranked 7th overall but only 12th against green criteria:

"Finally, in order to ensure a more harmonious development process, greater focus should be placed on several dimensions supporting environmental sustainability".

David Cameron and colleagues please take note!

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

THE PROBLEMS OF BRITISH POWER POLITICS

Several years ago I went to a very good conference on the potential for renewable energy development in Britain. However, whilst broadly sympathetic to renewables, I still had some hard questions to ask, and, because this was a conference for the converted, I felt regarded as the enemy. Fast forward to the present, and I recently attended an equally good economics discussion. On this occasion, it was my use of expressions like environmental advocacy and planning that seemed to cause a noticeable tremor in the room. Nevertheless, the company was rather better tempered.

The major similarity between the two events was a poor understanding of the role of spatial or land use planning, as distinct from Soviet-style centralised economic or energy planning. Now, as someone with an MSc in Urban and Regional Planning Studies conferred by a university economics department, with over twenty five years' experience of spatial planning and project development, I feel reasonably well equipped to explore this important difference. So let me start with land use planning.

In fact, land use planning in the UK - outside Scotland where its strategic importance is still acknowledged - has been largely abandoned in favour of regional spatial strategies (RSS) and local development frameworks. The RSS are also now in the process of abolition. Incidentally, I support the retention of regional planning albeit with a lighter touch. Meanwhile, council-led local planning has become an essentially administrative process, with the hard skills once identified with the land use planner's profession, including architecture, urban design and engineering, largely outsourced to other agencies and, particularly, consultants.

This erosion of planning by successive governments has led to the increasing inability of local plans to fulfil their most important purpose: to direct development to the most appropriate locations relative to its type and scale whilst having regard to existing infrastructure, or probable investment therein, and comprehensive environmental impact assessments. Such direction is, I would argue, especially important for energy planning, and it is the weakness of the spatial planning system and associated environmental regulation in England, most particularly, which has acted to inhibit the development of renewable energy.

To turn now to centralised economic and energy planning, most ordinary people recognise that, notwithstanding the British - or rather English - political penchant for free market rhetoric over the past thirty or so years, this actually disguises an equally strong commitment to central government control, regardless of which parties happen to be in power. The case of nuclear power illustrates this situation very well, for there would be no development of new capacity if this were left to market forces alone. The recent history of nuclear development in the United States shows that strong government financial support is essential.

However, it is not my intention here to consider the pros and cons of different forms of power generation, but to argue that a spatial plan, ideally encompassing the whole of the British Isles and international connectivity, is needed. By such connectivity, I mean a plan which recognises current supply lines and potential future developments, notably international energy super grids. Such a plan would, of course, have to recognise the vital principle of subsidiarity in order to encourage regional and local ingenuity. Similarly, a coherent and long term national regulatory and incentives-based framework would need to be in place to support appropriate investment.

Is an integrated - economic and spatial - planning scenario for energy generation and supply in Britain of the kind I have described a realistic possibility? Perhaps a better question is: can the UK for reasons of economic security as well as environmental sustainability afford not to take this approach? For the "business as usual scenario", where our national politics of power are essentially left to the power politics of day, is no longer viable in an increasingly internationalised energy market where the forces in operation may not always espouse freedom.

Monday, October 08, 2012

RUSSIFICATION OF EUROPE'S ENERGY POLICY

Whilst the British media celebrated Russian President Vladimir Putin's sixtieth birthday at the weekend - Mr Putin is, after all, something of a celebrity - Russia has today opened a second gas pipeline across the Baltic Sea to Germany. An earlier pipeline began operation last year. Mr Putin announced that the new pipeline would `make a significant contribution to the economic development of our countries and the entire European continent".

Europe obtains some two-fifths of its natural gas supplies from Russia, and the continent's energy demand for gas is forecast to grow some forty percent by 2035. The increasing energy dependence of Europe on Russian gas amounts to the Russification of the region's energy policy, a development no doubt cause for celebration on Mr Putin's birthday.

The increasingly close relationship between Russia and Germany is also noteworthy. In German Chancellor Angela Merkel Vladimir Putin has, to reverse Mrs Thatcher's description of former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, found a woman he can do business with. Mrs Merkel, does after all, share a Soviet hinterland with Mr Putin, who was himself posted to East Germany by the KGB before the collapse of communism.

So as the Conservative Party faithful gather in Birmingham, Prime Minister David Cameron,  a onetime recruitment target for the KGB during his student gap year according to his own admission, might want to turn his attention eastwards to Europe. For it is very important that those "Little Englanders" amongst the Tories - the gods bless their souls! - are not permitted to distract the Government's attention from important European questions, including Russification of energy policy.

Saturday, October 06, 2012

SOME REFLECTIONS ON THE TURNER PRIZE

As the 2012 Turner Prize show of shortlisted artists opens at Tate Britain this week, I feel it's time to reflect on the role of art in society. So here's my mini-manifesto. Visual art should ideally:
  • be aesthetically pleasing
  • challenge our perception
  • have a spiritual value
I found all these qualities in some pavement art outside a major a high street retailer yesterday: a photograph of "Tom's" pictures  is provided at www.donella.posterous.com (due to problems with blogger images).

One of my regrets in middle age is that I failed to submit a spoof entry for the Turner Prize, although I did consider applying to the former Channel 4's series "Faking It" as a conceptual artist.

My problem is not so much with the competition itself as the industry which it has spawned, and the pretentious language used by some artists and those who write about them. In short, the Turner Prize has contributed to the commodification of art and its spiritual devaluation.

Friday, October 05, 2012

SHADES OF GREY AND PEOPLE OVER FIFTY

The launch this week of a Labour Party commission, headed by Miriam O'Reilly and Arlene Phillips, into employment age discrimination against women over fifty comes as BBC news presented Fiona Bruce admits to dying her hair to keep her job. Both O'Reilly and Phillips were cast off by the Corporation from their roles in Country File and Strictly Come Dancing in favour of younger women.

As a woman just turned fifty and with her natural hair colour, including some grey, this is an issue close to my heart. However, the Labour Party's apparent championing of it will not make me renew my membership, lapsed since one Tony Blair became leader in the mid-1990s, because Britain's cult of youth, or rather of a youthful appearance, began with New Labour and the so-called Blair Babes.

For although John Major was only a youthful forty seven when he took up prime ministerial office in 1990, he was already grey and - although we did not know this until much later - the erstwhile possessor of a love life with fellow MP Edwina Currie probably closer to Fifty Shades of Grey than anyone in New Labour, with the possible exception of David Blunkett, would be capable of delivering.

Returning to discrimination against mature women the workplace, the issue, it seems to me, is not so much about age as appearance; although there are those for whom an older person's knowledge and experience are unattractive. However, discrimination on grounds of appearance is not confined to older women or men, and beautiful people may be discriminated against as well as plainer types.

The key issue - and apparent reason why BBC Country File sidelined Miriam O'Reilly, but retained the more mature John Craven - is that one's face fits, not just physically (the requirements of high definition television, for instance), but also, and even more importantly in most cases, metaphorically. Yes, it is fitting in with a younger group of colleagues that employers think older women will not do.

This apparent problem is often ascribed to a belief that older and younger women do not "get on" as well as men of different ages, and tend to replicate domestic roles in the workplace. The female menopause is also cited as an actual or potential risk to workplace equilibrium, although this seems to be able to accommodate the male's midlife changes.

Nevertheless, many men over fifty have been known to experience turbulent mood swings, and possibly even hot flushes exacerbated by spicy food, when challenged by younger, and perhaps more virile colleagues, including uniformed police officers. This fact may throw some light on the case of Andrew Mitchell (see below), and remind us all that, in life, there are indeed many shades of grey.

Thursday, October 04, 2012

E-PANTO?: OLD BILL AND BIG SWINGING DICK

Mulling over some plebeian baked beans, laced with chili sauce, I had to acknowledge that my earlier post had all the right ingredients for a new E-Pantomime, as the following synopsis demonstrates:

The Government Chief Whip, erstwhile patron of international development and friend of the global poor - rather like the Big Clunking Fist in fact - has his lunch-time curry spiked by a Tory anarchist, and later that day transforms into "Big Swinging Dick". Asked to use the pedestrian gate, the bicycling minister insults some Downing Street police officers, who then log his deprecations and their account of the incident appears on the front page of a national tabloid.

In the meantime, the minister has resumed his normal persona and has little or no re-collection of the previous day's outburst, but apologises anyway. However, this is not the end of the matter. The shadow High Sheriff of England, the Honorable Mrs Cooper-Balls, is determined to have the minister publicly humiliated for using classist language in the presence of serving police officers. Now gentlemen of both the tabloid and broadsheet press smell blood and a hunt for BSD ensues.

The story then takes on a life of its own as the narrative of "Old Bill and Big Swinging Dick", in which various honest plods take on the dastardly member until order is restored by the civil service.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

PLEBS AT THE GATE AND NEW CLASS POLITICS

On one level, I don't know whether to read the "Plebgate" story as a sense of humour failure on the parts of a government minister and the diplomatic police, or a comedy worthy of the Carry On Team.

Mr Andrew Mitchell, or so it is reported, likes to be known as a "Big Swinging D..k", but on this occasion seems to have behaved like a stupid pr..k. So why didn't the police officer in question caution the minister for bad behaviour at the time of the temper tantrum?

Instead, "Plebgate" was written down in the officer's log-book, and then later on the front page of The Sun newspaper. I'm not clear how the story was procured by News International, but I hope that on this occasion the police weren't paid for it.

Enter left Yvette Cooper, shadow Home Secretary, to demand an inquiry which the Cabinet Secretary has declined. Thank goodness, because even morons have more important things to think about!

Thursday, September 20, 2012

URBAN POLICY IN THE AGE OF AUSTERITY

Usually sceptical of the think tank sector's increasing output, I nevertheless feel that The Work Foundation may have published an important report this week. Entitled "People or Place - Urban Policy in the Age of Austerity", this report considers the history of urban and regional policy and programmes, including the present government's partial abandonment of these. I say partial because the "Regional Growth Fund" is evidence that they still exist, in name anyway. However, RDF appears to favour more prosperous areas over poorer ones which is certainly a reversal of earlier policy objectives for urban and regional planning. The Work Foundation's report has focused on the situation in Birmingham and the West Midlands. This may be one reason why it has received little coverage from London-biased media.

Saturday, September 08, 2012

THE DAVE CAM CHANNEL NEEDS TO WISE UP

Although the Prime Minister is highly intelligent, a natural tendency to talk down to people means that he often manifests a dual public persona, or cross between "Dave the Vague" and "Dave the Wide-Boy". We also know that he can be totally ruthless. Both personae were in play last week as "Dave the Diffident", an unmediated version of "Dave the Vague", which has some similarity to the manner adopted by Harold Macmillan, ruthlessly sacked various ministers and vaguely informed the House of Commons of a "form of review" of "airport capacity" (See below) Meanwhile, "Dave the Wide-Boy" proclaimed that he would "get planners off people's backs" and the nation's potentially dodgy extensions off the ground in a manner more reminiscent of Del Boy Trotter.

In the midst of all this, I had a dream - and I jest not - about being given a lift by former James Bond actor Pierce Brosnan around the M25 and environs where some new and rather ugly development was taking shape. The journey ended, however, in an unregenerated inner urban neighbourhood. What could this vision presage, I wondered, except the continuing inability of the present government, like the previous one, to properly tackle the regeneration of Britain's inner city and older industrial areas, particularly in the Midlands and North of England?  I was, nevertheless, curious about the significance of the Bond figure. Upon reflection, I think this was Brosnan as he appeared in "The Ghost Writer", apparently in a role based on that of former prime minister Blair.

I've since reflected that Colin Firth, an actor able to take on tragic and comic roles in equal measure, might one day play Dave Cameron very well. In the meantime, it behoves the Prime Minister to both wise up the content of his public pronouncements, and, given the obvious inferiority of his comic persona to that of London Mayor Boris Johnson (a figure even the creme de la creme of British comedy creators could not dream up), to seriously consider enhancing the No 10 sense of humour department, through the engagement of some new speech writers as well as technical advisers.

Thursday, September 06, 2012

INQUIRY'S TERMS OF REFERENCE WILL BE KEY

Following some week long speculation, the Prime Minister yesterday announced that "a form of review" would be conducted in to airport capacity around London. The chairman of this enterprise has been identified as Howard Davies. This must be regarded as a curious choice as Mr Davies was last in the news when he resigned as Director of the London School of Economics in 2011, as a consequence of donations from a charity linked to the former Gaddafi regime in Libya. One can only presume that friends in the right places felt Howard Davies was in need of guaranteed work for the next three years, as the airport "review" is not due to report until after the 2015 General Election. Would that more of us had such connectivity!

Connectivity will also be a key issue for the airport inquiry, as will its terms of reference. Unfortunately, Mr Cameron lived up to his reputation for being "Dave the Vague" when he informed the House of Commons of a review intended to "bring parties together and make a decision about airport capacity". My guess is that the terms of reference will be too narrowly drawn and thereby enable the "Heathrow Hub" concept to emerge as the solution to an ill-defined problem. Due to an inability to manage powerful stakeholder interests, the UK government is seriously impaired when it comes to strategic planning, an incapacity compounded by the appointment of people with questionable credentials for arriving at objective-based recommendations on major spatial projects.

Saturday, September 01, 2012

UK GOVERNMENT TO HOLD AIRPORTS INQUIRY

News that the UK Government is likely to announce the creation of an independent commission to consider options for future airport capacity in South East England is, on balance, to be welcomed.

The options would seem to be as follows:
  • Restrict capacity/demand manage air travel favoured by Green Party and environmentalists
  • Restrict capacity in South East with new high speed rail link to regional airports in Midlands/North
  • Heathrow Hub with expanded capacity
  • Additional capacity at Gatwick and/or Stanstead
  • Additional capacity at other existing airports in South East
  • New Thames Estuary airport, for which there are a number of different options
It is important that the above options are considered in the context of the need for integrated transport solutions, including rail access, and the legal requirement for Strategic Environmental Assessment.

Since this blog was posted, The Independent on Sunday has revealed that a mystery consortium is drawing up plans for a new, four-runway airport close to Heathrow, with sites in Berkshire and Oxfordshire potentially in the frame.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

VALUING THE 2012 OLYMPIC MEDAL COUNT

With the Russians apparently unhappy about their Olympic medals total, which officially put them in fourth place behind Britain, perhaps the time has come for a new method of scoring the medal count. A gold medal could be worth 3 points, a silver 2 and a bronze 1. This system would put Russia ahead of Britain in the medals count. Alternatively, the country's leaders could reflect on the possibility that Russia's longer term economic prospects might be better not only than Britain's, but perhaps even those of China and the United States, given the right political conditions.

Friday, August 10, 2012

EUROPE WILL BE WINNER OF LONDON 2012

During a year when Euroscepticism is very much in vogue, I'll wage a bet that Europe will be the winner of London 2012. Britain may win the medal count amongst European partners, but the continent looks set to have a majority of countries amongst the top ten performers and is likely to be the ultimate victor of the 2012 Olympics.

So whilst the UK may have beaten its main rival Germany in equestrian sports, with outstanding performances by our dressage and showjumping teams, it is the German horse industry which could secure more international business from the Olympics than our own. This has much to do with the dominance of northern European warmbloods in the sports horse market, reflecting the superior organisation of breeding in countries like Germany and the Netherlands. The German equestrian sector is also particularly well positioned for export markets as shown in their website: www.ghindustry.com

In addition, other European countries will be the undoubted beneficiaries of foreign tourists discouraged from coming to Britain during the Olympic year, at a time when the continent is already providing a greater attraction for the international visitor market. There is also the question of how many Britons will choose to holiday abroad.

So whilst national pride is rightly running high, it behoves British politicians and the media to curb the Eurosceptic spirit which has run riot in recent months, and focus instead on creating a lasting legacy from the London 2012 Olympics which extends well beyond the capital. In this context, the development of a national facility capable of staging the World Equestrian Games is something that requires serious consideration. The UK is currently without one despite being a global leader in horse sports, whereas a number of European countries have long-established centres of excellence, which bring together a major international competition circuit with valuable trade and visitor markets.

Wednesday, August 08, 2012

TEAM GB: PRE-EMINENT MINI-SUPERPOWER?

The success of London 2012 and Britain's Olympic competitors has inevitably allowed politicians, sponsors and the media to bask temporarily in the glory of a role to which this country's elite most aspire: gold membership of a nation with pre-eminent mini-superpower status. However, this role, like hosting the Olympic Games, comes with a heavy price tag and questionable legacy.

One of the defining characteristics of super-power nations, arguably now the United States, China, Russia and India - based on country-size and/or population as well as economic resources - is increasing polarisation between rich and poor, something Britain, and particularly England, also shares. We also share with the US an increasingly multi-ethic society.

In a Telegraph article of 5 August, the historian David Starkey repeats his thesis of last year that 2011's civil unrest in English urban areas, especially London and other major cities, were predominantly "race riots". Although this contention has been hotly challenged, and the general consensus is that there were a number of contributory factors, Starkey's view is significant, as reflected in the volume of comments on his article.

Coming from a decidedly under-privileged background, as well as being homosexual (rather than gay), Starkey is perhaps better equipped than many to reflect on how poverty and minority-status can make life difficult, and how a good education, at least for his generation and the one which immediately followed it, can help overcome such difficulty.

The problem is that a good education, arguably still freely available up to level 3 (A level equivalent) for the majority of Britons under 20, is no longer regarded as a guarantor of the ability to succeed in life by significant sections of young people in our country. This is perhaps especially true of black adolescent males, and also many white working class ones, the primary targets of Starkey's diatribe.

Yet it may be that these young people, coming from the sharp end of Britain's increasing social inequality and feeling this most acutely, are simply presenting some of the clearest symptoms of the underlying disease. Moreover, it could also be that in an unreconstructed intellectual like Starkey, who is unencumbered by political correctness, that the disease may find some hope of a cure.

For the fine thing about Starkey, in my view, is that, like all traditional pedagogues, he appears to talk down to everyone, great and good included; and whilst castigating some lesser groups as misguided, and others criminal, he does not charge them with stupidity, a criticism he reserves for much of the elite and those intent on dumbing down social discourse.

It is for this reason, I would suggest, that David Starkey may be the ideal person to lead a national debate, which should take place at every level of society, on the advantages and disadvantages of Britain's aspirations - or rather those of our country's elite - for gold position in the global league of mini-superpowers. This might start with an appraisal of the main competitor nations, if there are any.

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

OLYMPICS: LADY GODIVA RIDES FOR BRITAIN

As the British Eventing Team won a very well-deserved silver medal yesterday, a cycle drawn Lady Godiva made her way from the Midlands to London. Although this Godiva is clothed in the interests of public decently, a naked lady on horse back petitioned the prime minister a few years ago to support the creation of a national Museum of the Horse: www.museumofthehorse.org The promoters of this project point out that we are one of the few great horse-loving countries without such an attraction, and the choice of Greenwich Park as Britain's Olympic equestrian venue means that there can be no permanent legacy on this site, a theme I have covered at http://eponaland.wordpress.com


Tuesday, July 31, 2012

GOD SAVE PUTIN FROM THE PUSSY RIOT

The emasculation of Punk Rock in contemporary Britain is reflected the 2012 Olympic soundtrack, with The Clash's London Calling used by sponsors British Airways and The Sex Pistol's lyric "God save the Queen" (from their song Jubilee) finding its way into the opening ceremony's popular music medley.

In modern Russia, on the other hand, Punk seems to be alive and kicking. I refer, of course, to the girl band Pussy Riot who broke into Moscow's main cathedral earlier in the year wearing coloured balaclavas and called for the Holy Mother to save Russia from then prime minister, and now president, Vladimir Putin in a barrage of obscenities. Unsurprisingly, these actions led to unseemly scuffles with Orthodox nuns and clergy, and the subsequent imprisonment of some band members on charges of blasphemy and other offences. The absence of bail and the prospect of a long prison sentence for these young and, it has to be said, rather demure-looking women has outraged many Russians, leading to street protests by their supporters and one artist stitching his lips together. International media support for their plight is also growing.

However, I wonder what the reaction of Britain's liberal democracy, and, indeed that of the world's media, would be if a group of inappropriately-clad young women were to break into a mosque and engage in behaviour like that of Pussy Riot. The young women might well need to be imprisoned for their own protection.

For this reason, I would suggest, Britain is undergoing its own cultural emasculation, in some ways reflected in the opening ceremony of the London 2012 Olympics. The insidious nature of this process, by contrast with the, arguably, fascist regime of President Putin should be cause for equal concern.

However, the lyrics which perhaps best encapsulate our country's contemporary cultural malaise, expressed most profoundly in the cult of celebrity and the lingering legacy of The Spice Girls, due to perform in the London 2012 closing ceremony, are still those of The Sex Pistol's original Punk song Pretty Vacant:

"There's no point in asking us you'll get no reply
I just steam in but I don't decide
I got no reason it's all too much
you'll always find us
Out to lunch !
We're so pretty oh so pretty
vacant
We're so pretty oh so pretty
vacant"

Saturday, July 28, 2012

OLYMPIC TRIUMPH OF FORM OVER CONTENT

The opening ceremony of the London 2012 Olympics was certainly a spectacle. Although I was hoping for something more Ken Russell and The Wicker Man to emerge from the Fields Full of Folk beneath the grassy mound, the transformation of these into Dark Satanic Mills instead was still impressive. Moreover, the heroine of the show for me was not Her Majesty's Bond Girl but the deaf drummer Dame Evelyn Glennie who led the summoning up of the infernal spirits of industrial revolution with Titan relish, stealing the limelight from Sir Kenneth Branagh's Isambard Kingdom Brunel with a positively awesome chthonic beat. Unfortunately, after that I thought the event rather lost its plot. Showcasing the National Health Service and Youth Culture was, I imagine, intended to highlight the role of these, along with the Queen and Our Green and Pleasant Land, in forging Britain's social cohesion. Nevertheless, despite the undoubted technical achievement of Danny Boyle's creation, I was left feeling that this culmination of the so-called Cultural Olympiad was still outdone by another Recent Event where form also triumphed over content: Last Year's Riots.

Sunday, July 15, 2012

BANKING CRISIS: BEYOND THE THIRD WAVE

The current problems of the Eurozone have been described as "the third wave" of the banking crisis which began in the United States when the scale of the sub-prime lending fiasco became apparent in 2007, and the British bank Northern Rock was implicated in this. With the demise of the US bank Lehman Brothers the following year, a "second wave" of the crisis erupted. This period co-incided with the use of dubious interest management methods by Barclays bank, currently headlined in the London Interbank Offer Rates (LIBOR) scandal. It is useful to remind ourselves that the US authorities regarded the unsupportive position of the UK Government on a potential rescue of Lehman Brothers in 2008 as an important contributory factor in that bank's liquidation, and, as a consequence, in the escalation of the international banking crisis. The British narrative, of course, is rather different, as we were reminded when the deputy governor of the Bank of England informed us recently that it was intervention by the Brown government in the global credit crunch which "saved the world" (his words) in 2008. These comments were made against the backdrop of the Barclays LIBOR scandal. With regard to this present matter, it is perhaps hardly surprising that a different narrative is starting to emerge in the US, to the effect that the US authorities had drawn the attention of the Bank of England to likely irregularities associated with LIBOR in 2008. The real truth of the story may, or may not, unfold in future weeks as British players jostle for the position of new Governor of the Bank of England, and those in the US seek to set the record straight.

In this context, the recent international - ie Anglo-American - media focus on the problems of the Eurozone, and in particular of Spain and Greece, has subsided somewhat: something for which European politicians and those who support the Eurozone are no doubt grateful. Instead, we are reminded that the situation in many US states continues to be analogous to that of some Eurozone countries, with a number of cities recently filing for bankruptcy, including Stockton and San Bernardino in California, itself one of the world's largest economies. So "the third wave" of the banking crisis is by no means confined to the Eurozone, and is proving just as difficult for sunny west coast California to surf as sunny southern Europe. However, it may be "the fourth wave" of this crisis of capitalism, a term deployed by the Financial Times in 2008, which ultimately proves most difficult for the world to ride out. I refer, of course, to the present economic and political difficulties of China, the elephant in the room with the potential ability to demolish the global banking system's house of cards like a tsunami. Unsurprisingly, China's problems are once again founded, but not well as it turns out, upon a real estate bubble, which has contributed to the profound socio-economic polarisation of her enormous population. As the country's turbulent history has shown, China's present predicament is by no means auspicious. Meanwhile we all live in interesting times.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

DETROIT: EXEMPLAR OF URBAN RENEWAL?

I was very surprised, or rather gobsmacked, to hear Centre for Cities chief executive Alexandra Jones cite Detroit as an exemplar of urban renewal on BBC Radio 4's today programme this morning. "The Lost City of Detroit" is identified probably more than other western metropolis with the phenomenon of urban abandonment and mass dereliction.

The policy of "grassing over" such abandoned areas, referred to by Ms Jones as an example of successful urban renewal, is one which most contemporary regeneration practitioners would not advocate for UK towns and cities. Although the disastrous "Pathfinder Programme" of New Labour, now abandoned by the Coalition, did indeed demolish and grass over parts of some older urban areas in the Midlands and north of England by way of following the model used by some US states.

So whilst the Centre for Cities does produce some very useful information on the state of UK urban areas, I would seriously question whether it lives up to the self-proclaimed title of "non-partisan.....policy research unit". Instead, the organisation seems to be engaged in re-packaging - perhaps grassing over - discredited programmes strongly associated with the previous government.

Monday, July 09, 2012

IT'S TIME TO RE-PACKAGE THE TEDDY BEAR

I'm not referring to an Olympic mascot, but the top secret project code-named "Teddy Bear" which Lord Mandelson, then an MP somewhat fallen from grace, devised with former prime minister Tony Blair, then Director General of the BBC John Birt and current Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood to break up ex-Chancellor Gordon Brown's Treasury. Yes, this cuddly creature is one of the revelations of "The Third Man", the subject of my previous post.

However, notwithstanding its apparently soft exterior, "Teddy Bear" might just end up being one of Mandelson's, or Heywood's, most substantial legacies to British government, albeit one also involving transfer of the "Prince of Darkness" title from politician to civil servant. So let's unpack New Labour's Teddy Bear and consider whether a timely re-packaging for the Coalition Government could make him a winning mascot for the New British politics.

In short, Project Teddy Bear, as I shall call it, envisaged splitting the economic management role of the Treasury from it administration of public expenditure, based on a model of government in the United States. This would have downsized the role of Gordon Brown, who tended to run the Treasury as a sort of International Bank for Re-Distribution and Development. Although, "re-distribution" to less developed countries tended to revert to London banks in the form of money laundering, thereby contributing to the now well-documented excesses of the City of London. Meanwhile, at home "development" became increasingly identified with lucrative construction contracts, many under the guise of the Private Finance Initiative, which now threaten to bankrupt parts of the public sector.

In this context, Teddy Bear remains an excellent idea, not least after last week's unedifying House of Commons squabble between present Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne and the shadow-boxing Ed Balls. Re-packaging Teddy Bear would enable the Coalition Government to re-distribute the Treasury's responsibilities between say, Vince Cable, as head of a new finance ministry to handle macroeconomic policy and, yes, my old favourite, Ken Clark, who could lead a US-style Office of Budget and Delivery. George Osborne might be re-shuffled to the Department for Business, Skills and Innovation, where, no doubt, he could very ably represent the interests of the UK banking sector. Such a reshuffle could also afford Ed Miliband the opportunity to consign  Balls to the back benches.

Saturday, July 07, 2012

IS BRITAIN READY FOR A NEW THIRD WAY?

Having taken some time out for reflection and reading, this blog is now resuming service with some thoughts inspired by "The Third Man" of British (and international) contemporary politics, New Red Baron Lord Peter Mandelson.

I purchased Lord Mandelson's autobiography, "The Third Man", from Waterstones for the princely sum of £0.99, being told by the young bookseller that this was one tome the shop "couldn't shift". This surprised me as the book has an elegant red and black cover, with a rather scary-looking Mandelson on its dust jacket.

In fact, the book was well-received by serious reviewers such as Matthew Dancona on its publication in 2010, shortly after Labour's general election defeat but before the election of Ed Miliband as new party leader.

However, it is perhaps testimony to the British public's lack of love for Lord Mandelson, as much as his own party's, that this rather good book has received less attention than the rantings of new raving loony party contender, Alastair Campbell. It may also be the case that Mandelson, the King of Spin, was and is not the lovely boy of the British media that we all assumed.

For my money, and sadly I'm not filthy rich, this makes what the Red Baron has to say all the more interesting; even if the Queen of Sofa Government tends to be rather more preoccupied by the microcosm of New Labour than the wider realities of politics at home and abroad. Cherie Blair's health guru Carol Caplin, for instance, receives rather more attention than most female ministers.

This said, Mandelson's account of his time as director of communications for the Labour is not only fascinating for anyone interested in the history of the modern party, but also explains why he and Tony Blair, the only two people to understand what New Labour was all about according to the latter, were willing to jettison so much in order to win and sustain power.

"He would say that wouldn't he", may well be the reaction of many to Mandelson's literary positioning of himself not only as the power broker of New Labour, but also its prime mover in matters of strategy. Nevertheless, it is he, rather than Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, who emerges through his book as the architect of the promised (but never actually delivered) political Third Way.

"The Third Man" ends with Lord Mandelson looking forward to "a new chapter" in his own life and the lives of  fellow protagonists in what has been called "The Project". It now seems that this chapter is already being written.

For an article in last weekend's "I" newspaper, funded by one of the "filthy rich" Russian oligarch's with whom the Red Baron is reported so friendly - another, incidentally, owns Waterstones bookshops - speculated on a "theatrical" Lord Mandelson playing a leading role in the appointment of Tony Blair as prime minister of a Lib-Lab Coalition following the 2015 general election.

Could such an arrangement deliver the Third Way for which many of us have been waiting. Having read "The Third Man", I'm still not so sure. It might well have been better for Britain and the world stage if the Churchillian Ken Clark had staged a military coup to prevent New Labour assuming government in 1997, and imposed a benign dictatorship on the country. But that's another story!


Saturday, December 31, 2011

MANAGED DECLINE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

The current furore around whether Lord Howe recommended managed decline for the city of Liverpool following the riots of 1981 comes at a time when many question the commitment of the present government to the regeneration of England's major urban areas. If this latest controversy, following the 2011 unrest in English cities, re-invigorates urban and regional policy making it will be a good start to 2012.

However, the debate about what happened in Liverpool should be set in a broader context of the urban and industrial decline which has defined how much of Britain has developed, or not, since the 1970s. For managed decline has certainly been supported by successive governments over the past forty years or so, particularly with respect -or lack of - to the manufacturing base of major cities.

Indeed, anyone who has dealt with government departments knows full well that decisions inevitably resulting in managed decline, whether of particular areas, types of infrastructure or industrial sectors, are being made all the time; although largely, it has to be said, by faceless bureaucrats rather than politicians, who generally play second fiddle to the technocrats to whom England's economic and wider fate seems to have become entrusted.

The advent of regional government, and particularly the recent election of the Scottish National party, has nevertheless challenged the rule of technocracy in the United Kingdom, and a country arguably in managed decline during the latter part of the twentieth century has, with new democratic powers, undergone something of a renaissance. It comes as no surprise, therefore, that an arch-technocrat like the outgoing Cabinet Secretary should feel threatened.

Friday, December 09, 2011

CAMERON: WE'RE NOT ALL IN THIS TOGETHER

Interviewed recently, a former member of the Bank of England policy committee sensibly observed that it was very good for the UK that we are not in the Eurozone, and very good for the Eurozone that the UK is not a member.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

DEMOCRACY VS TECHNOCRACY IN THE UK

The displacement of elected government ministers by an appointed group of technocrats in Italy has brought strong opposition from some in the British press, although the occasional academic correspondent favours a fully-fledged technocracy of the kind found in contemporary China.

However, I would argue that technocratic government has long existed in the UK, and has probably been the the norm, rather than the exception, in post-war Britain. The important issue is the implicitness of this arrangement in our country, as distinct from its explicitness in continental Europe. To illustrate this, it is useful to look at how economic growth has been defined and supported through policy-making and government intervention in the UK in the period since 2000.

During the Blair premiership, in one important respect "New Labour" meant precisely what it said on the bottle in the encouragement of mass migration as a means of transforming the UK employment market and creating a growth trajectory based upon a rapidly increasing population. This, combined with the well-documented expansion of financial services sector, together with the encouragement of what some describe as the "feral rich" to locate in Britain, gave rise to a rapid increase in property prices and subsequent speculative bubble.

At no time during the above process, which substantially gathered momentum following the re-election of New Labour in 2005, were the above policies explicitly identified to the UK electorate, many of whom by now had been bought off by the availability of cheap credit, although some politicians, notably Vince Cable for the Liberal Democrats, had begun to sound alarm bells on debt. Such alarms were soon proved to have real foundation as the strongly integrated (but never democratically mandated) UK and US financial systems imploded in 2008.

A British Coalition Government was then elected in 2010 with a political mandate to deal with the serious consequences of the banking crisis, together with other problems arising from the poor governance of the previous administration, including unregulated and unsustainable levels of migration.

During the early days of the Coalition much political rhetoric was directed at tackling these problems, but in retrospect remarkably little has actually been done, and it now appears that the present government is determined to embark upon a leveraged growth strategy, as distinct from promoting sustainable economic development, which is more or less identical to that of New Labour. One can only presume that this must be due to the existence of a technocratic "state within the state" of Britain which is beyond democratic accountability and political mastery because its very existence is implicit rather than explicit in our system of government.

Saturday, November 12, 2011

SMART MONEY'S ON MERKEL AND LAGARDE

Picture: The Telegraph

I have recently (and belatedly) started reading Germaine Greer's "The Whole Woman", published at the end of the twentieth century. There is a certain bitterness in later vintage Greer arising from the all too apparent flaws of "The Feminist Project", and in particular the failure of this to empower the "The Older Woman". However, it is not only older feminists who should reflect keenly on recent events in the Eurozone, where female power brokers Angela Merkel and Christine Lagarde have this week seen off a male chauvinist of Imperial Roman proportions in Silvio Berlusconi.

For the partnership of German Chancellor and International Monetary Fund chief should be a concern not only for male politicians well-past their sell-by date, but also for fashionably young political leaders like David Cameron, and even President Obama, who have a penchant for coming across as onetime head boys now elevated to the position of school head master or college principal: ie still relatively inexperienced in the workings of European Realpolitik.

The present problems of the Eurozone may have provided a most welcome distraction from those of UK (and US) political economy, with Eurosceptic interests having a field day in the British media, but in the medium to longer term it is likely to be Germany and fellow members of a European Union premier league who are the winners. Indeed Britain should beware being cold-shouldered in both the "Special Relationship" and the New Europe.

With this in mind, Britannia might well do worse than look to "Mature Feminism" for help in renewing her political economy and the national psyche. Why, after all, should women of a certain age fare so well in foreign public life and be largely excluded from appearing in British visual media? The answer must lie amongst our male-dominated political media classes, and the many women who subscribe to their televisual reality. However, whilst this deep-rooted cultural problem may inspire outstanding feminist critics like Germaine Greer, it will prevent Britain from getting real with the challenges of the twenty first century.

Friday, October 07, 2011

VLADIMIR PUTIN'S NEW EASTERN APPROACHES

Source: Financial Times

News that Vladimir Putin is to seek a third term of office as Russian president, making the creation of a Eurasian Union the centrepiece of his political enterprise, comes as the prospects of the European Project appear much diminished. Alternatively, has the image of Euroland politics been excessively tarnished in recent months by an Anglo-US government alliance keen to deflect attention away from its own economic woes?

My own take on the new geopolitics is that the Arab Awakening, together with the prospect of closer co-operation between Russia and former Soviet republics, is creating a zone of opportunity between the Tiger economies of China and India and key European and North American markets. In this context, it is important that the British government's policy response is not dominated by an overly ideological approach based on Conservative Euroscepticism.

Prime Minister Cameron, and even President Obama, should also remember that, whilst their Russian colleague may be short in stature, Mr Putin is widely regarded, along with German Chancellor Merkel with whom he shares an old Eastern Bloc hinterland, as a political heavyweight: a status which the two younger, and probably more transient, western leaders have yet to prove.