Showing posts with label Crises Of Capitalism. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crises Of Capitalism. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 03, 2016

LIVINGSTONE, HISTORY AND "MASS KILLINGS"

Ken Livingstone and Adolf Hitler (International Business Times)
The political storm created by the former London Mayor, Labour MP and Leader of the Greater London Council's suggestion that Adolf Hitler was a Zionist shows little sign of abating. This post offers a guarded defence of Mr Livingstone, a long-time controversialist, whose comments have prompted some much needed historical and international discourse in British politics, without, however, supporting his version of history.

Ken Livingstone was suspended from the Labour Party as a result of his clumsy attempt to disentangle Anti-Semitism and Zionism. He was previously expelled from the party by the New Labour government and stood as an independent in the first election for a London Mayor in 2000 in which he won a decisive victory. He was later re-instated by the party and stood as a Labour candidate in 2004. On both occasions, London's ethnic minority communities were a key constituency for Mr Livingstone, along with other groups who felt under-represented in, or let down by, mainstream politics. Perhaps more than any other politician, Ken Livingstone has led the transformation of the UK's capital in to a multi-cultural global city, and compromised his left-wing credentials along the way. It is not without irony that Mr Livingstone - for his detractors one of the founding fathers of modern British political correctness - can be quite politically incorrect himself.

The reason for this, and indeed for Ken Livingstone's political success, is that he is in many ways the quintessential post-war Londoner. The "Life of Ken" is worth reading up on, not least because it has caused much more controversy over a similar time period than Monty Python's "Life of Brian" . Nevertheless, the notion that Mr Livingstone is in some way a Nazi apologist is completely absurd, nor in my view, is he Anti-Semitic.

What Ken Livingstone always has had, along with his onetime arch-enemy Margaret Thatcher, is a highly selective version of events (historical and contemporary), with a possibly even greater tendency to be over-influenced by particular advisers and intellectuals without giving full and proper attention to those with different views. In the present furore, Mr Livingstone has cited the work of the American Jewish Marxist historian Lenni Brenner as evidence of Hitler's early support for Zionism.

However, the wider historical consensus on Nazi policy towards the Jews is very different. For instance, writing in today's Independent on the subject of "Hitler and Zionism" Professor Rainer Schulze points out that:  "Claims that Hitler was a Zionist, or supported Zionism, before his anti-Jewish policies turned into murder and extermination flare up at regular intervals. They usually cite the controversial Haavara Agreement (Transfer Agreement) of August 1933 as the most potent evidence of a wilful cooperation between Hitler and the Zionist movement. When viewed in a certain way, this deal does superficially seem to show that Hitler’s government endorsed Zionism – but just because it was a mechanism to help German Jews relocate to Palestine it does not imply it was “Zionist”. Professor Schulze is General Editor of "The Holocaust in History and Memory" a research project led by the University of Essex and his article originally appeared in "The Conversation".

Returning to Mr Livingstone, his unwary, shorthand view of history has, nevertheless, unwittingly contributed to the Labour Party's new "Big Conversation" on the relationship between the past and present. As my own contribution to this discourse, I would strongly recommend that the former London Mayor, together with Labour's present Leader and his colleagues add to their summer reading - if they have not read it already - a recent book by the historian Timothy Snyder, "Bloodlands"  The subject of this book is "a zone in Europe where the Soviet and Nazi powers overlapped" and where at least 14 million people, mainly civilian or non-combatants, were "killed by purposeful mass murder associated with the above regimes" during the period 1933-45. Snyder purposely uses the term "mass killing" instead of "genocide" to describe the atrocities of the Bloodlands, of which the Jewish Holocaust is the most infamous.

Yet, as Snyder also points out: "During the years that both Stalin and Hitler were in power, more people were killed in Ukraine that anywhere else in the Bloodlands, or in Europe, or in the World". Indeed, Ukrainians have their own expression - the Holodomor - to describe "the greatest artificial famine in the history of the world" that killed between 2.5 and 7.5 million people in the period 1932-3 alone.

The term "Holodomor" is, however, little known outside Ukraine, currently engaged in both a "history war", and a real one, with Russia, and this points to a fundamental problem of modern history itself: that it can sometimes be as selective in its version of events as Ken Livingstone. Much of Timothy Snyder's work is based on "new" archive material that became available to North American and Western European researchers after the collapse of the Soviet Union and its Eastern Bloc in the early 1990s. However, the partial narrative of mid-century European history also occurred because Russia became a Western ally after 1941, and it suited the allies to emphasize the Holocaust perpetrated by Nazi Germany rather than other mass killings that occurred in the Bloodlands between 1933-45. Of Snyder's estimated 14 million victims, "more than half died of starvation", yet as he also admits, the "Great Chinese Famine" of 1958-62 greatly surpassed even this figure.

When Labour's John Mcdonnell presented Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer with a copy of Chairman Mao's Little Red Book last year he was making a serious point: "...We must not pretend to know what we do not know" By this action - which was misunderstood and much derided at the time by Britain's ignorant political classes - Mr Mcdonnell meant that George Osborne , who studied modern history at Oxford University, should seek to understand what the possible implications of an increasingly close economic and financial relationship with the communist People's Republic of China might actually mean for the UK.

I no doubt risk being ridiculed like John McDonnell in conflating the power of contemporary China with the problems of its quite recent past. However, the lessons for both George Osborne and Ken Livingstone, another Sinophile, is the perennial one of needing to understand the past in order to know the present. Unfortunately, we live in an age where the "New Opium of the People"  is  the promise of a digital utopia in which cheap, plentiful and high quality consumer goods continue to be supplied to Western and other consumers by the new Workshops of the World, particularly China. The shallow and materialistic lifestyles to which the post-WII generations - from Baby Boomers to Millennials - aspire has conspired to support an elite dominated by techno-optimist groupthink. It is hardly surprising that in such a millieu histories are often forgotten, spawning an ill-educated social discourse in much of the new and conventional media. So finally, let's thank Ken Livingstone for helping to rectify this, albeit unintentionally.

Postscript: May 2018 - Mr Livingstone has now resigned from the Labour Party.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

DECONSTRUCTING OSBORNE'S STATE CAPITALISM

Going Underground: George Osborne and Boris Johnson (Mirror)
Some where along the line, British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne became a state capitalist and so, arguably, did outgoing London Mayor Boris Johnson. In Osborne's case, this ideological acquisition may have been due to indoctrination during a gap-year visit to China as a young man, and/or the subsequent influence of Maoist - in their own words - Liberal Democrats like former Business Secretary Sir Vince Cable during the UK Lib-Con Coalition Government of 2010-15. In the case of Johnson, the embrace of state capitalism is more opportunistic, like the taking of a concubine who might be retained or discarded according to political expediency.

State capitalism, it may be argued, is the political expediency of the present economic age. Only yesterday, a Financial Times article entitled "Japan Inc: Heavy meddling" quoted the former head of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as saying: “The important thing about the rise of China is that most developed nations have seen that pure market-based capitalism sometimes cannot compete against the Chinese state."(1). However, Mr Osborne's enthusiasm for state capitalism goes beyond expediency and has more than a whiff of ideological fanaticism about it, although this may have something to do with the Chancellor of the Exchequer's austere dietary regime (2).

So it was a proposed "Sugar Tax" on soft drinks in yesterday's Budget to encourage the nation to downsize after the fashion of  "Little George", as former larger-than-life Chancellor Ken Clarke sometimes calls his Conservative successor, that most caught the attention of the British media (3). In fact, this budgetary item might be compared to the evanescent fizz in a large tumbler of lemonade given to the infants of the national press whilst the real business took place elsewhere.

As Sky news had noted on the eve of Osborne's Budget: "Infrastructure Giants Line Up For New UK Fund" in the form of a "British Infrastructure Club‎, which will seek to replicate the track record of leading state-backed investment funds." The report also points out that "the Mayor of London has been a staunch advocate of the creation of a UK sovereign wealth fund with sufficient firepower to invest in British transport, housing and other critical national infrastructure."

Someone called "Zzz" (apparently used to mean sleepy, bored or tired, or the sound of a person snoring) and the sole commentator on the Sky report astutely remarked: "Cut through all the distracting rhetoric, Osborne is setting up another quango to spend the tax payers money on vote catching political projects." So there we have it. The state capitalism of George Osborne and Boris Johnson is deconstructed in a sentence, or is it? According to The Economist's "crony-capitalism index" of "the countries where politically connected businessmen are most likely to prosper", the UK was ranked 15th in 2014 and 2007 (5). This seems to be an area in which the economy has consistently performed well, for politically well-connected business people at least.


References 

(1). http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0118e3a6-ea99-11e5-bb79-2303682345c8.html#axzz43A0DYjHa
(2). http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11370930/David-Cameron-praises-George-Osborne-for-his-weight-loss.html
(3). http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3495160/George-Osborne-shocks-Britain-including-sugar-tax-Budget-sends-soft-drinks-shares-freefall.html
(4).  http://news.sky.com/story/1660464/infrastructure-giants-line-up-for-new-uk-fund
(5). http://www.economist.com/news/international/21599041-countries-where-politically-connected-businessmen-are-most-likely-prosper-planet

Monday, November 30, 2015

INTOLERANT (NEO) LIBERAL VALUES IN UK MEDIA

Today's Financial Times has an article on "the rise of liberal intolerance in America". This is a serious matter, but the irony of the title could not help but give me a quiet chuckle. As I've noted previously, the paper - whose objectivity I've come to value over the years - has embarked upon some fairly hysterical coverage of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership of the Labour Party. Whilst this is by no means exclusive to the FT - the BBC is just as bad -  it does beg the question whether this is a Liberal or Neo-Liberal bias, or indeed, a combination of the two.

Thursday, November 26, 2015

BRITAIN: OSBORNE'S GREAT LEAP BACKWARDS


Although today's front page of the Financial Times attributes a "great leap backwards" to his Labour shadow, in fact this potentially disastrous economic manoeuvre has been led by Chancellor George Osborne, and John McDonnell's "coup de theatre" has only served to draw attention to it.

Like Mr McDonnell, I keep a copy of "Quotations from Chairman Mao-Tse Tung" (see above) at home for reference. However, it was former UK Coalition government Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, the Liberal Democrat Vince Cable, who in 2010 started the Maoist discourse in contemporary British politics: "There is a kind of Maoist revolution happening in a lot of areas like the health service, local government, reform, all this kind of stuff, which is in danger of getting out of control" (1). This "revolution" is clearly still underway and the Labour Shadow Chancellor decided to highlight the ongoing "great leap backwards" yesterday.

It was the UK government's sale not just of the family silver but also of the furniture -  "this government is selling off to a Maoist regime British assets" - that  Mr McDonnell emphasised in a humorous reference not just to Chairman Mao but also to former "One Nation" Conservative prime minister Harold Macmillan, who upbraided the Thatcher government for public asset stripping (2,3). Unfortunately, such allusions proved too much for the intellectual capacities of most of his colleagues and the media: something which is just as worrying as the fact that the UK is increasingly run like a combination of real estate and asset disposal agency.

However, the news is not all bad. Recent reports by the Conservative Bow Group on the need to restrict foreign acquisitions of property in Britain and ditch the High Speed 2 Rail project suggest there may still be a revival of common sense politics amongst the Tories as well as Labour (4,5).

Postscript: Journalists on the Financial Times recently voted for strike action in a pensions dispute. Therefore, they must be old-fashioned political left wingers (6). Spot the irony!

References
1. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/dec/23/vince-cable-mao-coalition-marxist-capitalism
2. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34931047
3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1ssGrq5S3w
4. http://www.theguardian.com/money/blog/2015/nov/21/foreign-buyers-british-property
5. http://www.bowgroup.org/policy/revive-britains-railways-improve-capacity-says-bow-group
6. http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/nov/19/financial-times-journalists-vote-to-strike-over-pensions

Saturday, August 15, 2015

THE ESSENTIAL NAIVETY OF NEW LABOUR


A few years ago I purchased a new edition of Peter Mandelson's memoir "The Third Man" for the princely sum of £1. Sub-titled  "Life at the heart of New Labour", I thought the book very well written and a good Summer read. However, although Lord Mandelson held a number of senior UK government positions and was later Britain's European Union trade representative, "The Third Man" is really a book about political party management, as it seems was "life at the heart of New Labour". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Third_Man:_Life_at_the_Heart_of_New_Labour

It is hardly surprising, therefore, that most people now regard New Labour's years in office as a period of weak governance, whether in relation to the UK government's decision to participate in the invasion of Iraq, or poor regulation of the banking system. Party politics aside, the so-called New Labour Project was primarily an exercise in brand management and this has probably been its greatest success and most enduring legacy, with Conservative prime minister David Cameron later becoming the self-styled "Heir to Blair". http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/05/who-won-the-election-was-it-cameron-heir-to-blair-cameron-voice-of-lynton-or-was-it.html

Now is seems that an increasing number of Labour Party supporters are fed-up with politics as brand management and want something more ideological, possibly even a return to socialism. The veteran MP Jeremy Corbyn has become the surprise leader of this movement, and - perhaps even more surprising -  the wider electorate seem to relate to Mr Corbyn's brand of politics too. Not only is he now the apparent front runner in the Labour Party leadership contest, but also apparently the most popular candidate amongst voters from all parties http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/14/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-most-popular-candidate-voters-all-parties?CMP=share_btn_gp

Needless to say, New Labour's old political spin machine has led a ferocious assault on Mr Corbyn, who has in turn suggested that former prime minister Blair could face a possible war crimes trial over the illegal Iraq invasion.  http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-tony-blair-could-face-war-crimes-trial-over-illegal-iraq-invasion-10439020.html  However, the role of New Labour in this debacle is more likely to be remembered in these famous words: "It was worse than a crime; it was a blunder." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Antoine,_Duke_of_Enghien

In short, the invasion of Iraq points to the essential naivety not just at the heart of the New Labour Project but in the type of political management that it has come to represent and which has since been espoused by the Conservative Party. This can be seen at every level of government, whether in the incompetent patronage of some organisations linked to David Cameron's "Big Society" campaign https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Society or continuing incompetence in the management of Britain's economy -  http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2015/05/06/the-naivety-of-the-uk-economic-debate/

It seems rather rich, therefore, that the Financial Times should today publish a somewhat hysterical leader article on the prospect of Mr Corbyn's election as the new leader of the Labour Party - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/311c4e18-426e-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf.html Had Britain enjoyed a period of robust and prudent governance in the 21st century, alarm bells at the prospect of a socialist interloper might be justified. As it is, most people beyond the well-heeled Westminster elite probably welcome a return to ideological politics in the hope that these might just lead to better government.

Saturday, August 01, 2015

UK GOVERNANCE: CRISIS, WHAT CRISIS?


The Spectator's Isabel Hardman said recently: "One jubilant (Conservative) MP jokes that ‘we could strap babies to foxes and then tie them up with badgers, shoot them, and Labour wouldn’t know how to oppose it’."(1) The hunt for Jeremy Corbyn (mainly by his Labour own colleagues) has indeed provided the government with a useful distraction, although Harman continues: "That facetious analysis (by said jubilant Conservative MP) rather ignores the fact that the Tories didn’t manage to get their modest change to fox hunting legislation through, but the point still stands: the longer Labour is in a mess, the more powerful the Tories can become." However, whilst the British system of governance requires an effective opposition, in my view the present government may still end up hoist by their own petard, and rather sooner than they might have expected. (2)

The Financial Times pointed out this week: "...The recent disruption at Calais is estimated at about £250m a day in lost trade to the UK, factoring in wider costs to businesses such as retailers and manufacturers who do not receive crucial goods in time or have to write off spoiled food." (3) A full account of the problems is provided in this BBC report: Why is there a crisis at Calais? (4) As Keith Vaz, Labour chairman of the House of Commons Home Affairs Committee, told The Daily Mail:  'This is a real crisis, and it's a crisis that in the end is going to affect not just the south east of England but also other parts of the country.' (5) In fact, this Labour veteran has had some of the most sensible things to say on the situation in Calais, including an article yesterday in The Huffington Post (6). Meanwhile, sense from the government on the crisis seems, it is widely agreed, thin on the ground.

If Mr Cameron and his colleagues do not wish their turn at UK governance to be defined by the famous words "Crisis, What Crisis?" reputedly spoken by 1970s Labour prime minister Jim Callaghan, although in reality spun by The Sun newspaper, they must consider how to set their  houses in order sooner rather than later. Chancellor Osborne may have convinced his party and some of the British electorate that, in the words of Gordon Brown, there will be "no more boom and bust" (7), but this defies the now accepted view of the capitalist system as recently described, for instance, by the Financial Times journalist John Plender. (8) In government, economic and other crises will come around with reliable regularity, and particularly at times when those in office least expect them.

References
1http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/07/tory-mps-congratulate-lynton-crosby-on-his-election-success/
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petard#.22Hoist_with_his_own_petard.22
3. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fb4f3370-3603-11e5-bdbb-35e55cbae175.html#axzz3hZU0vvaU
4. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29074736
5.  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3180997/Moment-migrants-slice-way-lorry-West-Midlands-climbing-250miles-away-Calais-Keith-Vaz-warns-crisis-affect-country.html
6. http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/keith-vaz/calais-summer-crisis_b_7913228.html
7. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2551691/House-price-boom-DECADE-George-Osborne-says-demand-homes-continue-outstrip-supply-years.html
8. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/33d82de6-2bc3-11e5-8613-e7aedbb7bdb7.html#axzz3hZU0vvaU

Friday, January 30, 2015

ECONOMICS FROM CENTRAL PLANNERS TO BANKERS

The European Central Bank HQ in Frankfurt, Germany
As Coursera's thought-provoking mooc on "The Economics of Transition and Emerging Markets" (see my previous post) draws to a close, I feel it's time to reflect on the state of British and European political economy.

The high-point of Moscow's Higher School of Economics online course was for me an essay for peer assessment which asked participants to compare the transitions of the former Soviet Union and China from centrally planned economies to market-orientated ones. As I researched this fascinating subject, it also became clear that there has been a parallel transition towards central planning in some market-orientated economies - I'm going to take the UK as an example - in recent years. Moreover, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney told the Eurozone yesterday to follow Britain's example, notwithstanding "...central bank governors do not usually comment on the fiscal policies of their own jurisdictions, let alone foreign ones", http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bank-of-england-governor-mark-carney-urges-eurozone-to-spend-its-way-out-of-stagnation-10009743.html Good evidence for the re-construction of the central banker's role as central planner.

It should also be remembered that not so very long ago the Royal Bank of Scotland (currently 82% owned by the UK government) "had a £2.4tn balance sheet that was as big as the German economy in 2008" making it the world's largest bank. However, following the global financial crisis, the rescue of this institution, along with other major parts of the banking sector, effectively committed the UK economy to the state capitalist model http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_capitalism  A feature of this model which Britain has not yet embraced is the Sovereign Wealth Fund http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_wealth_fund so Chancellor George Osborne proposes to set one up based on the proceeds of fracking for shale gas http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/10/uk-proposes-shale-gas-sovereign-wealth-fund Although the financial viability of fracking, aside from environmental objections, is currently questionable http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31022280

In Germany fracking is currently banned, and I should imaging that Chancellor Merkel is presently minded to tell Governor Carney to "frack off", after the fashion of Vivienne Westwood who once sought to style the world's most powerful woman http://www.dw.de/refining-merkels-makeover/a-1887784 As a child of communist East German Mrs Merkel knows all about the centrally planned economy. The need for the Eurozone to follow Britain down the path of moral hazard in the form of quantitative easing is therefore one reason why the Eurosceptic Telegraph can claim today that "Germany's worst nightmare has come true" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11377010/Germanys-worst-nightmare-has-come-true.html For what is QE but a soft budget constraint http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/10/kornai-on-soft-budget-constraints-bail-outs-and-the-financial-crisis/#axzz3QJmVZbRE of the kind linked to the collapse of Soviet communism?

Reports of the Euro's death have been greately exaggerated before, of course, but the entry of China's Renminbi into the world top five currencies this week means that we do indeed live in interesting times http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

RUSSIANS LAUNCH COMPARE THE MARKETS MOOC

The Economics of Transition and Emerging Markets Mooc led by Professor Marek Dabrowski from Moscow's Higher School of Economics has just started on Coursera - https://www.coursera.org/course/etem and is summarised thus: "This course concentrates on challenges faced by transition and emerging-market economies, i.e. middle- and low-income countries. It starts from a brief history of communist economic system based on central planning in the former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe, its evolution and collapse at the end of 1980s/ early 1990s and subsequent transition to a market system in 1990s and 2000s. Then it analyzes experience of market reforms in China, India, other Asian countries, Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America at the same period. Finally, it discusses the problems of contemporary global economy and global and regional economic governance with the special focus given to emerging-market economies and their role." I'm enrolled and it looks good! However, Professor Dabrowski's style may appear somewhat unreconstructed (or just a little old fashioned) for those accustomed to the razzmatazz of some academic rockstars, despite his "living legend" status in Russia.

Postscript 26.11.2014:  I have just discovered this very good article about Marek Dabrowski - http://www.hse.ru/en/news/edu/137622553.html - who, it turns out, was "co-author of the Polish economic reforms during their most difficult and intense stage in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In 1989-1990, he served as Poland’s Deputy Minister of Finance and was later an advisor to the Prime Minister, a Member of Poland’s Sejm and an advisor to the head of the National Bank of Poland. In addition to his position at HSE, he is currently a fellow under the 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative of the European Commission, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs. His academic research interests include, among others, monetary and fiscal policies, growth and poverty, currency crises, international financial architecture, and perspectives of European integration...."

Please Note: Above image is from "Compare the Meerkat" - http://www.comparethemeerkat.com - and not from "Compare the Markets" mooc.

Sunday, October 26, 2014

MIGRATION AND POPULATION CHANGE IN BRITAIN

As the debate around net migration to the UK grows, it is important to focus on the facts of population change around Britain. A good place to start is the Office for National Statistics Population and Migration page from which the above graphic is taken -  http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/compendiums/compendium-of-uk-statistics/population-and-migration/index.html
The UK is forecast to become the most populous country in Europe by 2035 - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/8851902/Migrants-to-send-Britains-population-soaring-to-largest-in-EU.html - largely as a consequence of migration from within and outside the European Union. This has led to a growing number of calls for the impacts of migration and population change to be better understood, as well as reports questioning the sustainability - environmental, social, economic and cultural - of existing and predicted increases in Britain's population. Such critical reports include work commissioned by the think tank Civitas - http://www.civitas.org.uk/pdf/LargescaleImmigration - and the campaign group Population Matters - http://www.populationmatters.org/documents/myths_migration.pdf

Population forecasts have a level of uncertainty as acknowledged by ONS. What is needed are future scenarios based on lower and higher level projections and descriptions of their potential effects on key areas of concern. The UK government should have the intellectual and technological resources to do this and to engage the British public in an objective national discourse about migration and population. However, the traditional parties have hitherto eschewed such a "Big Conversation" - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3245620.stm - apparently preferring to accept that an already "Big Society" - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Society -
- is just going to get bigger regardless of the consequences. The recent award of a peerage to Sir Andrew Green, founder of Migration Watch - http://www.migrationwatchuk.org - for his work  "to improve public understanding of the impact of the very high levels of net migration" appears to indicate that the factual component of a popularist "big conversation" on this subject should now be supported in the managed political process.

Monday, September 22, 2014

ENGLISH PARLIAMENT: THE CASE FOR NATIONALISM

Public Entrance to the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh (opened in 2004)




One consequence of the Scottish Independence Referendum is a re-galvanising of the case for an English Parliament, as recently voiced by the veteran Conservative MP John Redwood - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29203693  However, whilst Mr Redwood suggests that the House of Commons could double up as an English Parliament, this post makes the case for a completely new institution based outside London, accompanied by a  "Great Cull" (humanely executed, naturally) of Westminster bureaucracy. The argument for this might best be summed up in the expression Democratic Sustainable Development.

The so-called United Kingdom has one of the most centralised state bureaucracies in the world. Whilst the previous New Labour administration adopted a policy of "Regionalism", this applied democratically only in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. In England, "regionalisation" manifested in the creation of  Regional Development Agencies (RDAs) or Quangos. Indeed "Quangoisation" (see Note) of government was a salient feature of the New Labour state. The Regional Assemblies which gave the RDAs some small measure of public accountability were abolished by the administration between 2008-10 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_assembly_%28England%29

In 2010, a Conservative-led Liberal Coalition Government was elected and set about destroying all vestiges of "regionalisation" - which became a sort of Orwellian banned word - in England, with the stated aim of replacing this with "Localism". In effect, this has meant replacing regional quangos with local ones, including the state-funded Local Enterprise Partnerships. There has also been a re-centralisation of policy-making, notably in the area of spatial planning where English local authorities now have to adhere to a National Planning Policy Framework, which is just as top-down as the Regional Spatial Strategies which it replaced (after much legal wrangling).

Having experienced both discredited "Regionalism" and "Localism" in the past 15 years, the only real option left for England is "Nationalism". This seems to be working very well in Scotland, where record voter turnout in the Independence Referendum gave the birthplace of democracy what seems like a democratic second-coming. I am sure that the prospect of an English Parliament - let's say in Birmingham - in conjunction with down-sizing of the Westminster Elite would have a similar effect. This could leave London with a city state model of government, something that should help overcome the Capital's growing social inequalities.

If all this sounds like it could lead to "Federalism", so much the better. A federal United Kingdom might well be the best way to preserve the Union in the longer-term. It would also provide some justification for the retention of a solid rump of London-based national government. However, the strong likelihood that increased English Nationalism would empower the dreaded  F-word in British politics will ensure that people like are current prime minister and his political cronies (elected and unelected) will do everything in their power to ensure the talk is of a "family of nations" which is run by a parental union of Big Money and Big State (just as it was under the previous government).

Note
1. When I google "Quangoisation" one of the first entries to emerge is a Chinese translation - http://dict.cn/quangoisation - perhaps because it is also a key feature of the State Capitalism model of political economy: one towards which the so-called UK has increasingly moved.

Tuesday, September 09, 2014

DISUNITED KINGDOM: THE STATE OF THE NATION

"State of the Nation" is a 1997 novel by former royal spin-doctor Michael Shea that was serialised in the Herald newspaper - http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/obituaries/michael-shea-diplomat-1.926959 The plot is summarised thus: "Following Scottish independence, worldwide recession has brought mass unemployment leading to civil unrest. An American-based corporation offers the Scottish government aid..." In the event of a "Yes" vote next week, the more likely scenario is that Scotland will ultimately have to join the Euro and, like Ireland, succumb to German economic disciplines. There may be some historical justice here insofar as the closest living relation of the last king of Scotland is the Prince of Bavaria - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Luitpold_of_Bavaria_%28b.1951%29 - and not the British Royal Family. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond also likes to invoke European precedents, namely the disunification of the former Czechoslovakia, for his country's potential exit from the so-called United Kingdom - http://www.historyandpolicy.org/policy-papers/papers/the-break-up-of-czechoslovakia-and-scottish-independence

Meanwhile, in today's edition of The Times, Rachel Sylvester writes that "Alex Salmond and Nigel Farage are both benefiting from disillusion with the Westminster elite felt by the ‘left behinds’". This seems to me to be the crux of the matter, although "left behinds" covers a rather larger rump of voters than Ms Sylvester may have in mind, I would venture. Ed Miliband has certainly picked this up in his party's rebranding as "One Nation Labour", and one of his strategists is quoted by The Times as saying: "The reason Ukip has done well in the European elections and the reason why people in Scotland may vote "Yes" is because they're utterly alienated and sick of Westminster politics as normal..." However, the sense of alienation goes rather deeper. In giving precedence to the city state of London ahead of the state of the nation, recent successive governments, namely New Labour and the Lib-Con Coalition, have failed to recognise that all politics are local.

Friday, May 09, 2014

GOVERNMENT EVERGREENING OF UK ECONOMY

Whe David Cameron declared that the Coalition was going to be "the greenest government ever"   and upset the Green Great and Good - http://www.jonathonporritt.com/Campaigns/greenest-government-ever - I just put this down to a "Dave the Vague" moment (of which there have been many!). However, the prime minister has turned out to be a more "eel-like customer", to use a recent Boris Johnson description of Tony Blair, than I initially envisaged. The big difference, of course, is that the nation's coffers are far more depleted than in the heady days of "New Labour" and, so thankfully, opportunities for foreign misadventures have been restricted, but that is about the only good news.

My guess is that when Mr Cameron referred to "the greenest government ever" he really meant that the Coalition would engage in the greatest "evergreening"* of any modern British administration. Now the term "evergreen" is used with a number of different meanings so I will clarify its usage in this post by referring to a Financial Times article of 25 March 2011 - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/59864380-570f-11e0-9035-00144feab49a.html#axzz31CkN4Zo5 - entitled ""Evergreening" will still leave UK banks in the red". Written by Marryn Somerset Webb, of Money Week and SuperScrimpers fame, the article uses "evergreen" according to the FT Lexicon - http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=evergreen-loan -  to mean a "short-term loan that is continuously renewed by the lender." The FT's Gillian Tett also uses the expression with the same meaning in an article of 30 December 2010 - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c23e885e-1422-11e0-a21b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz31CkN4Zo5 - on the subject: "Commercial property loans pose new threat".

To return to the Somerset Webb article, she comments: "One of the odd things that happens after a credit crisis is bad loan “evergreening”. Banks need to reduce their loan books to get their capital adequacy ratios back in order. But they can’t get rid of their low-quality loans (they need to keep rolling them over so no defaults turn up). As a result, they end up reducing their good loans instead. This looks slightly counter intuitive from the outside (bank in trouble reallocates its business away from good-quality assets towards lower-quality assets) but it makes sense for the bank: it buys it time to run down the bad loans slowly and earn its way out of trouble."

Unfortunately, the scale of the financial crisis and the level of state involvement in the banking sector, as well as the wider structure of the UK economy (which certainly has not re-balanced since 2010!) has meant that the Coalition has also followed this strategy. In short, lots of bad historic loans, including those obtained by public sector and other organisations under the so-called Private Finance Initiative (PFI) - see my earlier post below - have been, or are in the process of being, evergreened. This is not good news, as noted in 2012 by the TaxPayers' Alliance - https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/bettergovernment/2012/07/pfi-deals-costing-300-billion.html - who refer to a Guardian newspaper article of 5 July: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/jul/05/pfi-cost-300bn

The big difference between state and bank "evergreening", of course, is that the mechanism is not restricted to short-term loans. In the case of the UK government, "long-term evergreening" is the name of the game. However, whilst this may help shore up the nation's finances until after the next General Election, the strategy, as Marryn Somerset Webb notes, has the downside of diverting resources from good projects. This accounts for the lack of positive investment, in for instance the green economy, which many identify with the Coalition, and leaves me wondering whether evergreening will not just leave the country in the red, but also colour the nation's vote in 2015.

* "Evergreening" is also used to describe controversial practices associated with the pharmaceuticals industry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evergreening

Wednesday, May 07, 2014

MORE LEVIATHANS IN THE LURE OF MAMMON

The original Leviathan by Thomas Hobbes
"Leviathan in the lure of Mammon: limits of political Islam in Turkey" is the title of a recent article on the Open Democracy website by Kerem Oktem - http://www.opendemocracy.net/kerem-oktem/leviathan-in-lure-of-mammon-limits-of-political-islam-in-turkey In this, Oktem uses the context of "Western-style liberal democracy's" apparent increasing loss of appeal to discuss the current political economy of Turkey. However, the article's rather brilliant title, invoking the "Leviathan" of Thomas Hobbes, might also be used to describe the state of global and state capitalism as this manifests in so-called Western-style liberal democracies.

The present controversy around US drugs giant Pfizer's - http://www.pfizer.com - take-over bid for the UK's Astrazeneca - www.astrazeneca.co.uk - seems to illustrate that there are a lot more Leviathans in the lure of Mammon around the world. Indeed this metaphor seems to sum up very well not only the whole dynamic of global capitalism, epitomised in the financial system - much of which in Britain is still state-owned - but also what Oktem describes as "authoritarian power regimes" of the kind that can be found, not only in countries like Turkey, but in the relationship dynamic between the private and public sectors here in the UK.

The relationship between the pharmaceuticals sector and the British National Health Service (NHS) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Health_Service - provides a very good example of this.  As one of the world's largest employers - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_employers - the NHS has always invited comparisons with other public and private sector Leviathans, such as China's People's Liberation Army and US supermarket giant Walmart. However, it is in its more recent role as a commissioning and partnership body for private sector services that the lure of Mammon has really come in to play.

In short, the NHS is not only a global cash cow for the pharmaceuticals sector, both homegrown and international, but the partner of choice for a variety of companies providing a whole range of contract services through the so-called Private Finance Initiative (PFI) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_finance_initiative All this offers the prospect of a potential feeding frenzy of positively Olympian proportions for Leviathans in the lure of Mammon, and it is hardly surprising, therefore, that our esteemed National Health Service should have provided a centrepiece of London 2012's  opening ceremony. Roll on the Great Global Grab!

Monday, May 05, 2014

THE GLOBAL GRAB FOR LAND AND RESOURCES

The sale of farmland belonging to the troubled UK Co-operative Group - http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/may/03/co-op-farms-sale-chinese-buyers - has highlighted the global grab for land and resources, of which Britain is both an origin and destination: "In a similar way to central London property, farmland is now seen as a safe bet by foreign investors – while the average value of prime residential property in London has grown by 135% over the last decade, the value of prime British farmland has increased 273% to an average price of £8,500 per acre, according to Savills." In this case, it is the prospect of a single Chinese buyer for the Co-op's 17 000 hectares (44 000 acres) which is cause for concern. However, research by Land Matrix - www.landmatrix.org - shows that the British are just as active in international land investment. An extensive article in the United States Monthly Review - http://monthlyreview.org/2013/11/01/twenty-first-century-land-grabs - by Fred Magdoff, professor emeritus of plant and soil science at the University of Vermont, covers the history of the land grab from a global perspective. However, whilst the present focus of attention is agricultural land, this should be seen in the larger context of a grab for the earth's resources. It is to be hoped, therefore, that environmental and natural resource economics, as well as land economy, will be on the preferred curricula of the International Student Initiative for Pluralist Economics - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Student_Initiative_for_Pluralism_in_Economics - whose open letter (from the Glasgow Unversity Real World Economics Society) in today's Guardian calls for their subject to respond to "the multi-dimensional challenges of the 21st century - from financial stability to food security and climate change".

Thursday, May 01, 2014

ECONOMIC HETERODOXY SOUNDS GOOD TO ME

After reading Ha-Joon Chang's article, "Economics is too big a deal to leave to the experts" http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/30/economics-experts-economists, in today's edition of The Guardian, I decided to check out his Wikipedia entry:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ha-Joon_Chang This states that: "Chang's contribution to heterodox economics started while studying under Robert Rowthorn, a leading British Marxist economist, with whom he worked on the elaboration of the theory of industrial policy, which he described as a middle way between central planning and unrestrained free market. His work in this area is part of a broader approach to economics known as institutionalist political economy which places economic history and socio-political factors at the centre of the evolution of economic practices." Co-incidentally, after my post of yesterday, I was reminded of an excellent book on the subject of spatial economics called "The Geography of De-Industrialisation"* edited by Robert Rowthorn, that sadly now seems to be out of print. Greater heterodoxy on the subject of the spatial economy would certainly be very welcome.

* Some of the themes of this book are taken up in a recent publication entitled "The Economic Geography of the UK" http://www.amazon.co.uk/Economic-Geography-UK-Neil-Coe/dp/1849200904, part of whose introduction is available here. http://www.uk.sagepub.com/upm-data/35376_01_Coe_&_Jones_Ch_01.pdf

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

THE STATE OF SPATIAL ECONOMICS WE'RE IN



"Rerum Causas Cognoscere" or "To Know the Causes of Things" is the motto of the London School of Economics and Political Science (known as the LSE) - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_School_of_Economics - whose rather attractive coat of arms is shown above. Incidentally, I am also a big fan of beavers who are amongst the great builders of the animal kingdom, and construction is one of the key themes of this post.  Moreover, the LSE has an excellent mission statement, to use a modern expression, and one whose aspirations I very much support. Indeed it would serve as a fine motto for all higher education research institutions. Unfortunately, the wider ambitions of the UK universities sector, much of which now resembles a property development enterprise, rather than a fountain of knowledge, often work against these loftier aims.

I was reminded of this academic state of affairs earlier this week, when trying to post a comment about an article on some LSE spatial economics research on the Planning Resource website - please see http://www.planningresource.co.uk/article/1291801/discriminatory-green-belt-policies-causing-housing-affordability-crisis-says-lse-professor - I found myself suddenly censored. Therefore, having been cut short and fearing further censorship, I shall endeavour to answer the question of a fellow Planning Resource contributor on my own blog: thank goodness for Google! In response to my expression of concern about the impartiality of LSE research, due to the funding regime for this and similar institutions, a  Lawrence Revill (whom I suspect is a planning consultant) asked: "Just what, precisely, has that got to do with the Emeritus Professor of Economic Geography and his views on the Green Belt? Please show some perspective." Indeed I will, Mr Revill, in the following account. "Rerum Causas Cognoscere"!

The Emeritus Professor, and member of the LSE's Spatial Economics Research Centre, in question is Paul Cheshire  http://www.lse.ac.uk/researchAndExpertise/Experts/profile.aspx?KeyValue=p.cheshire%40lse.ac.uk The Spatial Economics Research Centre  http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/SERC/about/default.asp -  describes its mission thus: "Economic prosperity in the UK is very unevenly distributed across space. Tackling these persistent disparities is a key policy objective. The Spatial Economics Research Centre (SERC) aims to provide a rigorous understanding of the nature, extent, causes and consequences of these disparities, and to identify appropriate policy responses." This sounds highly admirable so it comes as a surprise to me that Professor Cheshire's research article* - http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cp417.pdf - should advocate policies likely to exacerbate persistent regional disparities in economic prosperity.

So let's look at what the Professor had to say. The basic thesis is that not enough housing has been built nationally, and, particularly, in the Home Counties around London in the past 20 years. Leaving aside the national picture, about which his article doe not really concern itself, the real bete noir for Cheshire is the capital's green belt of which he says: "What SERC research has shown is that the only value of greenbelts is for those who own houses within them (gibbons et al, 2011). What greenbelts seem to be is a very British form of discriminatory zoning, keeping the urban unwashed out of the Home Counties - and of course helping to turn houses into investment assets rather than places to live in". Given that the whole modus operandi of British economic policy has been driven by rentier capitalism during the period in question, this seems to be a remarkably naive statement from an "Emeritus Professor of Economic Geography" at the LSE!

Indeed, my censored comment on the Planning Resource website highlighted a "popular" post from the LSE SERC's blog - http://spatial-economics.blogspot.co.uk/ - entitled "How many French people live in London?" which opens thus: "According to the BBC London is now France's sixth biggest city: "The French consulate in London estimates between 300,000 and 400,000 French citizens live in the British capital" which compares to city populations as follows: Paris - 2.3m; Lyon - 488,000; Marseille - 859,000; Toulouse - 447,000; Nice 344 000." What this illustrates is the increasing globalisation of London since the 1990s. In terms of capital flows, London vies with New York as the world's most globalised city http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_city The capital has become a magnet for international property investment and uber wealthy people, as well as a preferred destination for an increasingly globalised workforce. This has been the major factor in the increasing cost and shortage of London housing.

Although I have suggested that Professor Cheshire is naive, I do not believe this to be the case. The LSE and other British universities have capitalised on the attraction of London for international students. Moreover, there does seem to have been something of a "London effect" as foreign students spread around the country and universities court them with increasingly high-specification (and expensive) campuses. It is quite possible that the LSE has its sights on a new greenfield site in the Homes Counties, with supporting development, including possibly a world-class golf course. For my own part, I shall be delighted if the main activity of London's green belt remains intensive agriculture. As an economic geographer, the Emeritus Professor should know very well that this is one the most suitable roles for it.

*  Some of the claims in this article (eg as much land given over to golf courses as housing in England) were subsequently challenged in a BBC radio 4 More or Less programme http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b044jh75

Monday, November 26, 2012

CAMERON:CLOUD-CUCKOO-LAND OR LE CARRE?

As a novel for our time, I cannot recommend "A Small Town in Germany" by John le Carre strongly enough, although beware the edition with an introduction by Hari Kunzru as this in my view gives a poor entre to the narrative which follows.

The "small town" of the book's title is Bonn some forty years ago when Britain is conspiring to enter the European Community and Germany is regarded as our key ally. Threatening to jeopardise this special relationship is the supposed defection of a British embassy employee to the Eastern Block, together with the emergence of a new German leader intent on national re-unification.

The book's central theme is  British post-war international realpolitik at a time when the nation appears to be in terminal decline. Against this backdrop, there can be few better literary accounts of office politics, encapsulated in the UK's Bonn embassy, where a combination bureaucratic determinism and internal relationship management wrestle with external imperatives.

As I neared the novel's conclusion, it  occurred to me that our present government may be run along very similar lines, and that David Cameron could have found his literary equivalent in le Carre's Bonn embassy head honcho, Bradfield.

The arch political manager, Bradfield makes UK's  modus operandi clear to the British spy Turner, who has been despatched by the Foreign Office to find the potential defector:

"I'm a great believer in hypocrisy. It's the nearest we ever get to virtue. It's a statement of what we ought to be like.....I did not contract to serve a powerful nation, least of all a virtuous one. All power corrupts. The loss of power corrupts even more. We thank an American for that advice. It's quite true. We are a corrupt nation and we need all the help we can get."

The alternative interpretation of our current prime minister's pronouncements on a range of issues, including private sector investment in infrastructure, is that he has inherited "delusions of Gordon" , or that he dwells in Cloud-Cuckoo-Land.



Monday, October 29, 2012

"BRITAIN'S BIGGEST ECONOMIC DISADVANTAGE - OUR PROPERTY MARKET"

The following views are expressed by John Stepek in today's Money Morning, the daily online newsletter of Money Week magazine.

The Governor "and other members of the Bank of England have warned that the Bank isn’t going to rush into printing more money in November. And it’s not just because of the GDP bounce. It’s because he’s not sure it can solve Britain’s problems. 

King reckons – and I wouldn’t disagree – that the basic problem is the banks are still sitting on too much bad debt. The debt needs to be recognised and its value written down (or written off). The banks then need to be patched up. All that needs to happen before banks are willing to lend again.

“In the 1930s, faced with problems of sovereign and other debt similar to those of today, the pretence that debts could be repaid was maintained for far too long. We must not repeat that mistake.”

However, we are repeating it. The trouble is, the “significant writing down of asset values” that King refers to, would involve allowing house prices to fall. In Britain, house prices are the single most important economic indicator, politically speaking. When house prices are falling, governments lose elections.

It’s why public policy, the tax system, and central bank activities, are all horribly skewed towards propping up the property market. Yet with the banks aware that they are over-exposed to an over-valued sector of the economy, they aren’t going to be keen to lend more until the risk is no longer so high.

This unravelling could take a very long time to play out. We can’t expect rampant global growth to help us out. So the Bank of England will continue to have to walk the line between allowing ‘too much’ inflation to get into the system, and keeping rates low enough to cushion those with large debts. That leaves Britain vulnerable to nasty external shocks."

Sunday, July 15, 2012

BANKING CRISIS: BEYOND THE THIRD WAVE

The current problems of the Eurozone have been described as "the third wave" of the banking crisis which began in the United States when the scale of the sub-prime lending fiasco became apparent in 2007, and the British bank Northern Rock was implicated in this. With the demise of the US bank Lehman Brothers the following year, a "second wave" of the crisis erupted. This period co-incided with the use of dubious interest management methods by Barclays bank, currently headlined in the London Interbank Offer Rates (LIBOR) scandal. It is useful to remind ourselves that the US authorities regarded the unsupportive position of the UK Government on a potential rescue of Lehman Brothers in 2008 as an important contributory factor in that bank's liquidation, and, as a consequence, in the escalation of the international banking crisis. The British narrative, of course, is rather different, as we were reminded when the deputy governor of the Bank of England informed us recently that it was intervention by the Brown government in the global credit crunch which "saved the world" (his words) in 2008. These comments were made against the backdrop of the Barclays LIBOR scandal. With regard to this present matter, it is perhaps hardly surprising that a different narrative is starting to emerge in the US, to the effect that the US authorities had drawn the attention of the Bank of England to likely irregularities associated with LIBOR in 2008. The real truth of the story may, or may not, unfold in future weeks as British players jostle for the position of new Governor of the Bank of England, and those in the US seek to set the record straight.

In this context, the recent international - ie Anglo-American - media focus on the problems of the Eurozone, and in particular of Spain and Greece, has subsided somewhat: something for which European politicians and those who support the Eurozone are no doubt grateful. Instead, we are reminded that the situation in many US states continues to be analogous to that of some Eurozone countries, with a number of cities recently filing for bankruptcy, including Stockton and San Bernardino in California, itself one of the world's largest economies. So "the third wave" of the banking crisis is by no means confined to the Eurozone, and is proving just as difficult for sunny west coast California to surf as sunny southern Europe. However, it may be "the fourth wave" of this crisis of capitalism, a term deployed by the Financial Times in 2008, which ultimately proves most difficult for the world to ride out. I refer, of course, to the present economic and political difficulties of China, the elephant in the room with the potential ability to demolish the global banking system's house of cards like a tsunami. Unsurprisingly, China's problems are once again founded, but not well as it turns out, upon a real estate bubble, which has contributed to the profound socio-economic polarisation of her enormous population. As the country's turbulent history has shown, China's present predicament is by no means auspicious. Meanwhile we all live in interesting times.

Saturday, December 31, 2011

MANAGED DECLINE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

The current furore around whether Lord Howe recommended managed decline for the city of Liverpool following the riots of 1981 comes at a time when many question the commitment of the present government to the regeneration of England's major urban areas. If this latest controversy, following the 2011 unrest in English cities, re-invigorates urban and regional policy making it will be a good start to 2012.

However, the debate about what happened in Liverpool should be set in a broader context of the urban and industrial decline which has defined how much of Britain has developed, or not, since the 1970s. For managed decline has certainly been supported by successive governments over the past forty years or so, particularly with respect -or lack of - to the manufacturing base of major cities.

Indeed, anyone who has dealt with government departments knows full well that decisions inevitably resulting in managed decline, whether of particular areas, types of infrastructure or industrial sectors, are being made all the time; although largely, it has to be said, by faceless bureaucrats rather than politicians, who generally play second fiddle to the technocrats to whom England's economic and wider fate seems to have become entrusted.

The advent of regional government, and particularly the recent election of the Scottish National party, has nevertheless challenged the rule of technocracy in the United Kingdom, and a country arguably in managed decline during the latter part of the twentieth century has, with new democratic powers, undergone something of a renaissance. It comes as no surprise, therefore, that an arch-technocrat like the outgoing Cabinet Secretary should feel threatened.