Friday, November 10, 2006

The Housing Market and Psychological Depression

There was an item on the radio recently which reported that the subject of depression (pyschological rather than economic) was replacing house prices as the talking point for Londoners. I far as I'm led to believe the London housing market is buoyant - albeit more bouyant for some people than others - and it was unclear from the item whether it was homeowners or non-homeowners for whom the subject of depression was coming to the fore.

I would suggest (although I am not a psychologist, except like most people in an amateur way)
that psycholiogical depression tends to exist where there are "uncertainties, troubles, doubts" (to use a literary quotation of whose origin I am uncertain), and, possibly, deeper clinical or "structural" problems. There are also some "uncertainties, troubles, doubts" around the UK housing market just now, in London and elsewhere, together with structural concerns.

Those people who have experienced a depressed housing market in the not-so-distant past may tend to wonder whether house price mechanisms are "bi-polar", and having entered a manic phase in recent years may yet plunge again into another depression, particularly in some areas, at some point in the future. "What goes up, must come down" as they say. Yet we are (re-)assured by official sources that the housing market is in a state of unprecedented strength.

There are certainly unprecedented forces bouying up the UK housing market at present, particularly in London, and in parts of London more than in others. One of these is the global growth in the number of people (individuals and organisations) with money to spend on housing and property in general, and for whom London/UK is an attractive destination. Thus it should come as no surprise that the UK is currently the world's Number One destination for inward investment, and that alot of this investment is in property (from mega commercial schemes to small housing portfolios). Aside from "foreigners" buying property, UK national have also invested hugely in "bricks and mortar" in recent years beyond their own immediate accommodation needs. Thus, in retrospect, it is hardly surprising that house prices have risen.

A number of questions arise from the above trends. Are these trends really good for the economy in general, especially in the longer term ? Linked to this question : is the housing market sustainable - economically, environmentally and socially ? My answer to both these questions is probably not, and, therefore, I'm not at all surprised that people, perhaps especially in London, are starting to feel dpressed about it all.

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